NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 4:58 AM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 4:58 AM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
- High confidence remains for widespread moderate to major heat
risk impacts through this afternoon, which may cause health
issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration.
Some areas will approach record highs.
- Gusty and erratic winds across western and central NM through
Saturday from isolated to widely scattered virga showers and
dry thunderstorms.
- Marginal Risk of severe weather for northeastern New Mexico both
Friday and Saturday, from afternoon and into early evening each
day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Heat impacts remain the main story for most of New Mexico today.
The entrenched upper-level high has already begun a slow
weakening, as an strong trough (for the season) moves across the
northern Rockies. Locally, H5 heights are progged to be around
596dam this afternoon, down from 600-601 of late. But relief will
be slow to come, as decrease in heights is offset by hot/dry
westerly flow, especially north of I-40. Breezy to gusty
conditions are forecast to develop in the afternoon along the CO
border. Have maintained the inherited configuration of Heat
Advisories, covering the ABQ Metro and Chaves County
Plains/Roswell areas. Other areas, such as Farmington, are
forecast to be close to criterion (100F, in that case), but
confidence not high enough to add. Of note is that the record high
at ABQ Sunport is within relatively "easy" reach at 98F today,
with the forecast high of 99F.
As in recent days, another crop of mainly high-based virga showers
and thunderstorms with small wetting footprints is expected again
today. Precipitable water values progged to remain in the 0.5-0.8
inch range over much of western NM and the northern mountains, so
dry thunder remains a threat, as indicated in the SPC Fire Wx
outlooks for both today and Saturday. PoPs were adjusted from NBM
guidance to be more widespread in coverage for lower (but
mentionable) values. This was particularly the case across the
eastern Plains this evening, where some CAM guidance indicates a
modest broken line of convection taking shape. In fact, SPC has
added a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather in
northeastern NM for today, mainly on account of potentially
damaging winds from high-based convection in the hot, well-mixed
environment if a cluster or two of storms can develop. 00Z RRFS
run shows some support for this scenario as well.
Heading into Saturday, H5 heights drop a little more, to around
593-594dam (per GFS), as broader troughing develops across the
interior west, so heat begins to ease somewhat. Coverage of Major
Heat Risk category backs off. ABQ still forecast to be within a
degree or two of the 99F record for the day, with some valley
locations approaching 100F, so another Heat Advisory may be
needed. Not looking like Roswell/Chaves Plains will hit criterion
for Saturday. As the high aloft begins to loosen its grip, column
moisture begins to seep in from the south. PoPs trend up across
the Southwest and South Central mountains, though these are likely
to be a mix of the wet/dry variety. WPC has painted a Marginal
Risk in the ERO covering much of the state, with burn scar flood
risk in the moderate range. Lastly, a few storms in northeastern
NM could again become severe, as the airmass ahead of a frontal
boundary moving in the from the north couples with increasing
shear ahead of a short-wave trough aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Overall, some relief from the heat is still in the forecast, as a
more-or-less typical monsoon pattern of scattered daily convection
on the mountains is pushed out onto the surrounding lowlands in
the afternoon and evening. On Sunday, a short-wave trough is
forecast to move across northern NM from northwest to southeast,
which ought to enhance that day's round of convection. Would not
be surprised if a Marginal Risk from SPC is added to that day in
subsequent outlooks. Deterministic runs from GFS and ECMWF still
showing some differences in how far westward the ridging aloft
retreats early in the new work week, so little reason to deviate
from NBM guidance. Models agree fairly well on redeveloping a
modestly strong H5 high over the Four Corners or central NM by
Wed/Thu, with an attendant temporary increase in heat, but
nothing like the past week. By late in the week, good consensus on
troughing over the West Coast/Great Basin helping to concentrate
a monsoonal plume over AZ/western NM, so a more active period
appears to be in store, with moderate confidence at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
High (80-90%) confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF
period at all terminals. Breezy to gusty westerly winds develop
around mid-day, with the strongest winds at KFMN, where gusts
should approach 30KT. KROW likely to maintain a more S/SE
direction. Gusty showers, or mainly dry thunderstorms, once again
could produce brief gusts of up to 35-40KT, particularly in
central NM. Leaned on LAV/HRRR guidance for timing of PROB30
groups. Confidence a bit higher for convective impact at KTCC,
with a linear feature showing up in CAM guidance, so have retained
TEMPO there. Intense heat also again will produce density
altitude concerns Friday afternoon. A low-level jet is forecast
to re-develop across northeast NM after 06Z Sat, so have inserted
LLWS to KTCC TAF for that timeframe.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Near-Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today for the
Northwest Plateau, as RH's fall below 10% and breezy sustained
west winds of around 15mph develop. Considered but opted against a
Red Flag Warning for this zone, as probabilistic guidance from
both the HREF and NBM indicate only 30-40% chances of attaining
RFW criteria, and limited in time and areal coverage at that. Dry
thunderstorms/gusty virga showers will again be a threat this
afternoon into early evening across the northwestern half of NM,
with the dry storms focused more west of the Continental Divide
on Saturday. Elevated conditions in northwestern NM persist on
Saturday into Sunday as well, but with lower 20-foot wind speeds
compared to today, Critical conditions are not expected.
Elsewhere, a gradual return to increased wetting rain footprints
after today is forecast, as a more typical monsoonal pattern sets
up.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 98 62 95 62 / 10 5 0 0
Dulce........................... 92 48 90 47 / 10 5 0 0
Cuba............................ 92 58 90 58 / 20 10 5 10
Gallup.......................... 95 56 93 56 / 20 10 5 10
El Morro........................ 91 58 88 57 / 20 20 20 20
Grants.......................... 94 57 93 57 / 20 10 20 10
Quemado......................... 91 59 89 59 / 20 20 40 30
Magdalena....................... 92 67 91 64 / 20 20 30 30
Datil........................... 90 61 88 58 / 30 20 40 30
Reserve......................... 96 58 95 54 / 30 20 50 30
Glenwood........................ 101 64 100 61 / 20 10 50 30
Chama........................... 86 50 84 50 / 10 5 5 5
Los Alamos...................... 90 63 89 62 / 20 10 20 10
Pecos........................... 91 60 89 58 / 10 10 20 10
Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 87 55 / 10 5 20 5
Red River....................... 78 49 77 47 / 20 5 20 5
Angel Fire...................... 82 42 81 41 / 20 5 30 5
Taos............................ 92 53 90 53 / 10 5 10 5
Mora............................ 87 56 85 53 / 20 10 30 10
Espanola........................ 97 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 5
Santa Fe........................ 92 63 91 63 / 10 10 20 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 96 60 94 60 / 10 10 10 10
Albuquerque Foothills........... 97 72 96 70 / 10 10 20 20
Albuquerque Heights............. 99 69 97 67 / 10 10 5 20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 67 100 66 / 10 10 5 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 68 98 66 / 10 10 5 20
Belen........................... 101 66 100 64 / 10 10 5 20
Bernalillo...................... 100 66 99 66 / 10 10 5 10
Bosque Farms.................... 101 64 100 63 / 10 10 5 10
Corrales........................ 100 67 99 66 / 10 10 10 20
Los Lunas....................... 101 66 100 64 / 10 10 5 10
Placitas........................ 97 67 95 66 / 10 10 10 10
Rio Rancho...................... 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 5 20
Socorro......................... 101 71 101 68 / 10 20 10 30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 63 90 61 / 10 10 20 20
Tijeras......................... 94 65 92 63 / 10 10 20 20
Edgewood........................ 94 59 92 58 / 10 10 20 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 58 94 56 / 10 10 20 10
Clines Corners.................. 91 62 88 59 / 10 10 20 10
Mountainair..................... 93 63 91 61 / 10 10 20 20
Gran Quivira.................... 93 63 91 61 / 10 20 30 30
Carrizozo....................... 95 68 94 66 / 10 20 30 30
Ruidoso......................... 87 63 86 61 / 20 10 40 30
Capulin......................... 90 57 85 53 / 20 10 30 30
Raton........................... 94 55 90 53 / 20 10 30 20
Springer........................ 96 56 92 53 / 10 10 20 10
Las Vegas....................... 91 59 89 57 / 10 10 30 10
Clayton......................... 99 64 89 61 / 20 20 10 30
Roy............................. 95 61 89 60 / 20 10 20 20
Conchas......................... 103 68 96 67 / 10 20 10 20
Santa Rosa...................... 100 66 95 64 / 10 20 20 20
Tucumcari....................... 102 69 95 66 / 10 20 5 20
Clovis.......................... 102 70 99 69 / 10 20 5 20
Portales........................ 102 71 100 70 / 5 20 10 20
Fort Sumner..................... 102 69 99 69 / 10 20 10 20
Roswell......................... 105 71 104 71 / 5 10 10 10
Picacho......................... 98 66 96 66 / 10 10 20 20
Elk............................. 94 64 93 63 / 10 5 30 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ219-238.
&&
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53