An upper high right over southern New Mexico trapped low level monsoonal moisture under it. Overnight and afternoon thunderstorms were slow moving and heavy rain caused flash flooding near Rincon and La Union.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An upper high right over southern New Mexico trapped low level monsoonal moisture under it. Overnight and afternoon thunderstorms were slow moving and heavy rain caused flash flooding near Rincon and La Union.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 9:03 PM MST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1003 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1002 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will diminish around midweek to near normal, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late in the week, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 WV imagery showing deep moisture plume persisting over the CWA but also shows signs of the upper high center reforming further west. Models have been consistent in showing the high center reforming just east of the Four Corners Monday. This has already shut the southerly flow off, but at least initially the sub-tropical moisture in place will not be scoured out; instead just re-cycled under the upper high. Monday through Wednesday...the trapped moisture will continue to produce isolated/scattered thunderstorms each day-mostly mountains in the afternoon then all areas in the evening. PWs will slowly decrease from 1.2-1.4 inches Monday to .9-1.2 inches Wednesday. Thus although thunderstorm coverage still relatively widespread, flood potential will gradually decrease through the period. Thursday and Friday...upper high over the Four Corners strengthens and expands. Still some re-cycled moisture under the high but PWs continue dropping to mostly under 1 inch. Thus expect isolated mountain thunderstorms afternoon with slight chance of evening thunderstorms elsewhere. Saturday and Sunday...further erosion of rain chances as upper high drops down over much of New Mexico. This will begin entraining some drier air from the midwest. PWs well under 1 inch both days and with warming and subsidence (500mb temps warming to as warm as -3C), only expecting slight chance of mountain thunderstorms each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 SCT100 BKN-OVC200-250 with scattered BKN-OVC050CB TSRA. Pea-size hail and wind gusts or 25-35 knots with some of these storms. Thunderstorms should be mostly dissipated by 10Z. Thunderstorms redeveloping after 18Z, mainly over the mountains, then spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 With monsoonal moisture remaining in place, fire concerns will continue to be minimal to nil. Mornings will feature good to excellent recoveries while afternoon minimums drop into the mid to upper 20s in the lowlands. Some drying is forecast mid to late week with a decrease in dew points and an increase in afternoon highs, but min RH values are forecast to stay near 20%. Winds will also be light for the period. The moisture will foster thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. By Thursday, storm chances will largely be limited to the Gila Wilderness. Venting will range poor to fair, improving to fair to good by mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 95 74 93 / 40 30 50 40 Sierra Blanca 66 89 67 88 / 40 60 50 60 Las Cruces 68 91 68 91 / 50 40 50 30 Alamogordo 69 90 68 89 / 30 50 40 40 Cloudcroft 50 67 50 68 / 30 70 40 70 Truth or Consequences 69 91 68 90 / 30 40 40 30 Silver City 62 86 62 86 / 40 70 50 70 Deming 70 95 69 94 / 40 40 50 40 Lordsburg 69 93 68 93 / 30 50 50 60 West El Paso Metro 73 93 72 91 / 40 30 50 40 Dell City 69 93 69 92 / 30 40 40 40 Fort Hancock 71 95 72 93 / 40 60 50 60 Loma Linda 66 86 66 85 / 30 50 50 50 Fabens 71 94 72 92 / 30 40 50 40 Santa Teresa 70 92 71 91 / 40 30 50 40 White Sands HQ 72 93 71 91 / 40 50 50 50 Jornada Range 69 91 68 91 / 40 50 50 50 Hatch 68 94 69 93 / 40 50 50 40 Columbus 70 93 71 93 / 40 30 60 30 Orogrande 68 89 67 88 / 40 40 50 50 Mayhill 56 80 56 80 / 30 80 40 70 Mescalero 54 80 54 80 / 30 80 40 60 Timberon 55 76 54 76 / 30 60 40 60 Winston 57 85 57 84 / 30 60 50 60 Hillsboro 64 91 64 91 / 40 60 50 50 Spaceport 67 91 67 91 / 30 40 50 40 Lake Roberts 57 86 57 86 / 40 70 50 80 Hurley 63 88 64 87 / 40 60 50 60 Cliff 65 93 66 93 / 20 60 40 70 Mule Creek 62 90 62 89 / 10 50 40 70 Faywood 65 88 65 87 / 40 60 50 60 Animas 68 93 69 93 / 30 50 60 60 Hachita 67 92 67 91 / 40 50 60 50 Antelope Wells 66 90 66 90 / 40 60 70 50 Cloverdale 63 86 64 87 / 40 60 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && FORECASTER...17-Hefner
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:40 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Dona Ana County Emergency Manager and Flood Commission reported significant water flow in the Rincon Arroyo at Interstate 25.
Water flowed across Visnaga Street due to heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1290135, 1290136.