High Wind in Nevada, March 19 to 20, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
959 PM PDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.UPDATE...

With Lake Tahoe currently seeing lake winds gusting up to 45 mph
and with both the HREF and the NBM showing these increased winds
potentially continuing after midnight, the Lake Wind Advisory for
Lake Tahoe has been extended until 5 AM PDT Thursday.

The Lake Wind Advisory for Pyramid Lake has been allowed to expire
at 10 PM PDT tonight as lake winds are no longer anticipated to
reach advisory criteria for an extended amount of time. An
occasional wind gust up to around 30 mph may be possible still for
the remainder of the night. -078

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A fast moving storm system will bring increased winds today and
  tonight followed by light Sierra snow showers later tonight to
  daybreak Thursday.

* A warming trend is forecast for the weekend, and especially into
  next week. Lower valleys will reach into the 70s for Monday
  through Wednesday next week.

* Longer range ensemble outlooks indicate return of more seasonable
  temperatures, and return of precipitation chances by end of this
  month.

.DISCUSSION...

A quick moving transient upper ridge will give way to an equally
quick moving upper short wave and attendant cold frontal boundary
that will press over the Sierra late this afternoon and evening,
then across western NV overnight. The mostly inactive nature of
this system with the marginal mid-level Pacific moisture and
limited forcing will at least be offset my the tightening of
thermal and pressure gradients region-wide ahead of the incoming
frontal boundary. Hi-Res ensemble and blended simulations project
a decent measure of gusty SW winds ahead of cold front peaking at
35-45 mph that carry over into evening hours. Therefore, lake
wind advisories continue for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake through
10 PM PDT. Please visit www.weather.gov/rev for more details

Only higher terrain favored areas of the Sierra Crest from the
Lake Tahoe Basin north across NE-CA to the OR border will see any
notable accumulations. The highest elevations across the Sierra
Front in areas with the strongest orographic lift front could see
4"-8" of new snow. HiRes ensemble and blended guidance also share
in the projection of a 40-60% chance for 1"-3" of accumulated
snowfall on higher mountain passes between 8 PM PDT and 4 AM
Thursday morning. Although snowfall will be limited in scope over
mountain areas, slippery and icy conditions will yield travel
impacts on mountain passes tonight through early Thursday morning.
Blended guidance holds firm with the projection that little in
the way of any measurable precipitation will make it over the
mountains into western NV zones. Showers that do develop (10-15%
chance) later this afternoon into the evening will remain mostly
north of I-80 and confined to higher terrain areas.

A period of northwest flow aloft will bring a noticeable chill in
the air Thursday morning project. The progressive more zonal upper
pattern that sets up through Friday will see the quick passage of a
short wave ridge that is followed quickly by another upper short
wave trough that increases shower chances (30-40%) across portions
of NE-CA to the OR border early morning Friday through the
afternoon. Snow showers will generally be light and bound to higher
elevation areas. But this will be only a temporary condition. High
pressure ridging into the West Coast will bring a period of drier
conditions and a noticeable warming trend that continues into the
weekend through early next week. The slightly below seasonal
daytime highs in the 50s for Thursday will make a quick turnaround
as will with highs warming into the 70s to near 80s for many
western NV locations early next week. Just in time for the Vernal
Equinox and the first day which officially starts early Thursday
morning at 2:01 AM PDT.

-Amanda

.AVIATION...

* Overall today, VFR conditions returned to area terminals. An
  incoming cold front will bring gusty southwest winds the remainder
  of the afternoon into the evening. FL100 winds aloft will be from
  the SW at 45-55kts by 18-21Z, then shift westerly 15-25 kts after
  12Z. Look for a continuance of mountain waves and moderate
  turbulence that includes LLWS for Sierra and western NV terminals
  12-15Z Thurs.

* This weak late season storm system will increase snow chances,
  mountain obscurations, and brief IFR/LIFR conditions late
  tonight through Thurs morning for KSVE, KTRK and KTVL. Snow
  amounts will be light, with a 50-70% for a trace up to 1.0 inch
  expected to cover KTRK runways. Blended simulations projects
  that KSVE and KTVL may see little to no accumulating snowfall
  with only a 30-50% for a few tenths of an inch falling between
  06-12Z Thursday.

* Sierra and western NV terminals will see a return of VFR
  conditions Thursday into the weekend. The only exception will be
  KTRK with patchy freezing fog early morning Friday between
  12-16Z.

-Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072.

&&