Damaging Winds in Nevada, June 23, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1015 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Other than a low chance for showers on the Sierra crest this
  afternoon, dry conditions are likely through the week.

* Haze is possible today and Tuesday as south winds push elevated
  smoke in from fires in the Baja Peninsula.

* Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week. Below-normal
  temperatures are expected through Wednesday before temperatures
  normal to above normal temperatures return the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed a upper-level trough
digging into central California. With abundant mid- to upper-level
moisture noted on this morning area soundings, this mainly resulted
in scattered clouds streaming into California and southern Nevada.
As this upper-level trough remains over the region today, cold 500mb
temperatures and weak upslope flow will result precipitation on the
Sierra crest through the afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows low-end
instability and high mid-level lapse rates in this area, so
thunderstorms are possible. Probabilities for over 0.01 inch of rain
remain on the peaks with no chances noted in the nearby valleys, so
any impacts should remain in the high terrain. Lightning and sudden
gusty winds are possible with storms today, otherwise not expecting
any thunderstorm or rain impacts. Precipitation will diminish this
evening and most likely, a dry night is expected. The HRRR does show
isolated showers and lightning flashes in Esmeralda and central Nye
counties overnight which would correspond to the best area of
forcing with decent vorticity advection; however, the HRRR is the
outlier and HREF shows less than 10% probabilities for rain over
0.01 inches at anytime overnight. The shortwave will weaken as it
shifts east on Tuesday onward, thus dry conditions are expected area-
wide tomorrow and through the rest of the week.

Smoke from fires in the Baja Peninsula will be pushed north from
breezy south winds today and Tuesday. The HRRR shows areas of smoke
advecting into the Colorado River Valley, southern Nevada, and
Mohave County at times; however, it suggests that smoke will mostly
be elevated as near-surface smoke (versus vertically integrated
smoke). HREF shows no chances for reduced visibilities, so most
likely there will periods of haze at times today and Tuesday and not
significant surface smoke or impacts.

Upper-level troughing will remain in place over the region, but will
slowly weaken through midweek. This will result in below-normal, but
gradually warming temperatures through Wednesday. After Wednesday,
ridging will begin to replace the upper-level trough. As heights
build, temperatures will warm to near-normal on Thursday, then above-
normal Friday through the weekend. After None-to-Minor Heat Risk
much of the week, widespread Moderate Heat Risk with isolated Major
Heat Risk returns for Saturday and Sunday. Anyone with outdoor plans
this weekend should be prepared for much warmer temperatures than
current levels and take heat precautions such as drinking extra
water and adjusting plans to cooler parts of the day.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
South-southeasterly winds stuck around longer than originally
anticipated this evening, but the direction should completely shift
from the southwest between 06 and 07Z with sustained speeds less
than 10 kts and no gusts. Winds Tuesday will be similar to today,
but to a lesser magnitude... south-southeasterly through the
afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times, ultimately falling off
after sunset. Like today, south-southeasterly winds could hang
around as late as 06Z before the nocturnal switch from the
southwest. Haze will be possible at times, with occasional minor
drops in surface-based visibility Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise,
expect slantwise visibility reductions through the TAF period due to
haze from nearby wildfires.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds on
Tuesday will be similar to today, with breezy south-southwest winds
impacting Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites in
the afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times. KDAG will gust from
the west this evening before speeds drop below 10 kts overnight.
Breezy west winds return late Tuesday afternoon. KBIH will be
largely light and diurnal. Slantwise visibility reductions possible
through the TAF period at all TAF sites due to haze from nearby
wildfires.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Soulat

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