Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, September 22, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increasing by late
  afternoon and evening

- There is a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall overnight
  into Tuesday

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday with highs in the 60s to low 70s

- Drier conditions Wednesday through Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with the potential
for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. The 18z sounding from
LBF did show a strong cap in place, which is leading to lower
confidence in seeing convection this afternoon into the early
evening. There are several boundaries in place to become the focus
for convective development with a sfc trof across the Sandhills, a
stationary front draped across the central Sandhills and a cold
front moving in from the north into the northwest Sandhills and a
deepening sfc low that is expected to move near the KS/NE border.
Think the greatest potential for convection will be after the low
level jet kicks in mid-evening as this will create enough lift
across the boundaries. The severe potential remains low with
marginal deep layer shear only around 20 to 25 kts, generally east
of HWY 83 with lapse rates around 7 to 7.5 and CAPE values around
1000 J/kg, if a strong to severe thunderstorm were to develop it
would be in this area, but given how strong the cap is, the threat
is marginal. The main hazards would be strong winds, hail and
moderate to heavy rainfall.

As the LLJ moves in this evening and interacts with the deepening
low across the southwest and the cold front to the northwest, there
could be two areas of potentially moderate to heavy rainfall. Should
storms develop along the cold front across the northern/northwest
Sandhills they will be slower moving and may produce moderate
rainfall with rainfall amounts greater than a quarter inch up to
half an inch. Southwest Nebraska will be the greatest focus for
heavy rainfall, depending on where the deepening low sets up along
with the frontal boundary moving southward stalls, there is the
potential for training of thunderstorms and could see moderate to
heavy rainfall of a quarter to half inch rainfall, with locally
higher amounts. Rainfall is expected to linger into Tuesday
afternoon.

Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday with the cold front passage
Monday/Tuesday along with rainy conditions across southwest Nebraska
highs will generally be in the low to mid 60s across southwest
Nebraska and into the low 70s across north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

An upper level ridge develops across the western CONUS and slowly
moves eastward through the week. This will bring drier conditions,
with no precipitation expected at this time, after Tuesday through
the remainder of the long term forecast. Temperatures will also
begin to moderate with highs reaching back to the 80s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across portions of western
and north central Nebraska for the next few hours this evening.
Developing showers and thunderstorms will track across the
region overnight, and may bring MVFR to IFR ceilings across the
region. These lower ceilings will be most notable across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska overnight. With a low pressure
system in the region, winds will continue to wrap around to the
north and northeast. Showers are expected to persist across the
region into the afternoon and evening hours, with a return to
low end VFR possible by the late afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
325 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 /225 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected across much of western and
north central Nebraska this evening and tonight. A few storms could
be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and hail as the main
hazards. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, primarily near
and south of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The threat for locally heavy rainfall continues into Tuesday for
areas near and south of Interstate 80.

Beyond Tuesday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.