On May 19, 2025, a negatively tilted mid to upper-level trough advancing into the central Plains helped spin up a surface low over eastern Colorado, which then progressed into central Nebraska and gradually deepened. Clearing skies and the erosion of earlier convective debris through the afternoon allowed for modest destabilization, with surface-based CAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OAX wrote it up.
On May 19, 2025, a negatively tilted mid to upper-level trough advancing into the central Plains helped spin up a surface low over eastern Colorado, which then progressed into central Nebraska and gradually deepened. Clearing skies and the erosion of earlier convective debris through the afternoon allowed for modest destabilization, with surface-based CAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg. This was accompanied by strong deep-layer shear exceeding 50 knots, creating a favorable environment for severe storm development.
Thunderstorms initiated in the late afternoon across two main areas: near the surface low in east-central Nebraska and along a warm front positioned across southeast Nebraska. Initial convection took the form of discrete supercells before evolving into more organized clusters as the evening progressed.
In east-central Nebraska, supercells produced hail as large as 2.75 inches in diameter near Schuyler and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph in Butler County. One of these storms also spawned an EF-1 tornado in Dodge County, which caused damage to campers, mobile homes, and trees. Meanwhile, in southeast Nebraska, another supercell produced hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter southwest of Pawnee City and a brief, intermittent EF-U tornado that tracked across portions of Pawnee and Richardson counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 2:25 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 325 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms (40-80% chance) develop this afternoon and evening across the forecast area. Storms may be severe with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain/flash flooding, and a tornado or two. - Showers and storms may linger into Tuesday (15-30% chance) over northeast Nebraska/western Iowa, and again Wednesday. - Pleasant weather is in store for Thursday, with precip chances returning Friday through Sunday (20-40%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/ GOES-19 satellite imagery shows an area of stratus across northeast Nebraska extending into western Iowa this afternoon with clearing now evident across portions of southeast Nebraska. 19z RAP sfc analysis shows the main sfc low based over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas with the main warm front now draped over southeast Nebraska. Our main attention in the immediate short term continues to be the severe threat for the afternoon/evening hours today. Forcing for ascent will increase throughout the day as a 500 mb left exit region of a jet streak sits on top of the forecast area. The 998 mb sfc low is forecast to continue tracking east northeast, continuing to lift the warm front and warm sector over southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa helping bring in anywhere from 65F to maybe even 70F dew points. Steepening 700-500 mb lapse rates with 1,500 to 3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and the additional moisture is resulting in an unstable airmass with little to no capping seen in areas where clearing is evident. 0-6 km bulk shear values show around 50 to 60 kts indicating supercells would be the most favored convective type initially, particularly in areas ahead of the sfc cold front/dry line and in the warm sector where the shear vector is more perpendicular to the frontal boundary. Hodographs do show decent low level curvature with latest KOAX VWP data showing 0-1 km SRH between 100-200 m^2/s^2. SRH looks to be particularly higher over southwest Iowa per model guidance, and the best 0-1 km bulk shear still appears to be mainly to the east northeast of where the instability axis is seen. On to the CAMs...convective evolution admittedly is somewhat messy, but the majority of CAMs have been keying in on two areas for storm initiation around 20-21z: primarily along the southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas border where a cluster of supercells develop and track northeast and eventually congeal into an MCS feature over southwest Iowa, and a broken line of storms along a boundary over northeast and east central Nebraska. This broken line of convection eventually pushes eastward but seems to dissipate by the 03-05z timeframe as it nears the Missouri River area. It is also worth noting that CAMs also indicate convection developing mainly in the open warm sector over the western Missouri/extreme northeast Kansas area this afternoon and evening. KEAX radar has already started to pick up on this activity as of 1940z. This activity could potentially hinder and limit available instability for storms developing in southeast Nebraska. For now, have introduced two main areas of 60 to 80% PoPs to account for the two main areas of convective initiation with widespread 40-50% PoPs for the rest of the forecast area this evening as storms congeal together. For these reasons, the Storm Prediction Center highlights a large portion of our forecast area in a slight risk of severe weather, with an enhanced risk including far southeast Nebraska. The main hazards expected with any convection that develops continue to be large hail and damaging winds, with a tornado also possible. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will also be of concern as the Weather Prediction Center highlights a slight risk of excessive rainfall across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a marginal risk encompassing the area just outside of the slight risk. Warm cloud depths continue to be around that 3,500 meter range with PWATs anywhere from 1.5 to 1.75 inches at times this evening and overnight. Repeated passage of storms coupled with last night's rainfall may result in flooding issues. Showers and thunderstorms may linger (15-30% PoPs) throughout the day Tuesday mainly over northeast Nebraska and western Iowa as we'll still be under the influence of the 500 mb circulation and cyclonic flow. Highs Tuesday will be in the low 50s north to mid 60s near the Nebraska/Kansas border under cloudy skies. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ Lingering ribbon of vorticity from the 500 mb circulation may trigger a few scattered showers and storms (15-30% PoPs) again over northeast Nebraska/far western Iowa Wednesday, but not expecting a whole lot from this activity. Otherwise, Thursday appears to be a fairly nice day with highs in the 60s although somewhat breezy with northwesterly winds. As we head toward Friday and the end of the work week, will see some more 500 mb waves swing through and generate some forcing for scattered showers and storms (20-40% chance per NBM guidance). Several of the severe weather machine learning algorithms show at least some low end chance for severe, but with these systems still being several days out, a lot could change. Temperatures will remain in the mid 60s to low 70s to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 A busy TAF period is in store, initially with low ceilings ranging from MVFR to LIFR while areas of drizzle and mist reduce visibilities into the MVFR/IFR range at and around KOFK. The bank of clouds is expected to stick around, only clearing out of Lincoln for a short period of time this evening before filling back in overnight. Potentially strong storms are expected to develop as well, affect each of the TAF sites for short period of time, bringing strong winds and hail where the strongest ones track. Winds should stay out of the southeast at KOMA/KLNK through a good chunk of the overnight while KOFK sits on the other side of the wind shift that eventually begins sweeping eastward after 10z tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm Timing Today: KOFK: 19-22Z KOMA: 23-01z KLNK: 22-00z && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Petersen
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 333 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-201045- Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont- Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison- Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler- Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline- Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson- 333 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening (40-80% chance). Severe weather is possible over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa where the main threats are large hail, damaging winds, localized flash flooding, and tornadoes. Showers and storms may linger into Tuesday over northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, but not expecting these to be severe. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Monday Showers and storms return for Friday through Sunday. The severe threat will be better determined in the coming days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1044 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1218 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg Malcolm 40.91N 96.87W
05/19/2025 Lancaster NE Public
Delayed report of tree limbs down relayed by
local emergency management. Time estimated
based on radar.
&&
DMPPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1049 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM Hail Orchard 42.34N 98.24W
05/19/2025 E0.75 Inch Antelope NE Trained Spotter
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1057 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SSW Clarkson 41.68N 97.14W
05/19/2025 Colfax NE Public
Delayed report of porch/roof damage. Time
estimated based on radar.
0331 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 S Clarkson 41.67N 97.12W
05/19/2025 Colfax NE Public
Delayed report of thunderstorm wind damage,
near intersection of Rd 8 and Rd T. Time
based on radar.
0336 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg Clarkson 41.72N 97.12W
05/19/2025 Colfax NE Public
Delayed report of tree damage in Clarkson,
NE. Time based on radar.
&&The Omaha radar (KOAX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:23 UTC.
18 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind, 3 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management report of a semi truck blow over east of Tarnov.
NWS Employee report of hail measured up to 1.75 in diameter.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1 in diameter.
Public report of hail measured up to 1.25 in diameter.
Public report of hail measured up to 3 in diameter.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1.75 in diameter.
Public report of hail measured up to 1 in diameter.
Public report of hail measured up to 1.75 in diameter.
Personal weather station wind gust measured at 58 mph.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1 in diameter.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1.25 in diameter. Report received via mPING.
Trained spotter report of hail estimated up to 1.5 in diameter.
Delayed report of hail estimated at baseball-sized hail via a picture relayed by emergency management. Time estimated based on radar.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1.25 in diameter. Report received via mPING.
A tornado developed on the Platte River just west of County Road 3 at 4:29 PM CST. The tornado moved east on the river before coming on the north shore where it damaged some campers and mobile homes, as well as cottonwood and maple trees. This included one very large cottonwood tree which was uprooted and fell on to a home. The life cycle of the tornado was evaluated using time stamped video from storm chasers. The final part of the track was intermittent, and the entire tornado lasted for approximately 2 minutes and 30 seconds. Damage to trees and homes indicated a narrow swath of peak estimated wind speed of 90 to 100 mph.
Amateur radio report of hail measured up to 1.75 in diameter.
Storm chaser videos indicate that an intermittent weak tornado tracked just south of Highway 8, beginning in an open field east of Highway 50, and continuing with an intermittent ground-level circulation and dust until ending prior to reaching 631 road. The ground level dust circulation did appear to be connected to a cloud base circulation, although without a fully visible condensation funnel. No damage was noted with this tornado.
Storm chaser videos indicate that an intermittent weak tornado tracked just south of Highway 8, beginning in an open field east of Highway 50, and continuing with an intermittent ground-level circulation and dust until ending prior to reaching 631 road. The ground level dust circulation did appear to be connected to a cloud base circulation, although without a fully visible condensation funnel. No damage was noted with this tornado.
Trained spotter report of wind gusts estimated at 50 to 60 mph along with pea sized hail.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1.75 in diameter.
Storm chaser report of hail measured up to 1 in diameter.
Public report of hail measured up to 1.75 in diameter. Report received via mPING.
Personal weather station wind gust measured at 59 mph.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1.75 in diameter.
Public report of hail estimated up to 1 in diameter.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Nebraska, 2025Warnings in Nebraska, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1253949, 1253958, 1253959, 1253960, 1253961, 1253962, 1253963, 1253964, 1253967, 1253965, 1253966, 1253968, 1253970, 1253971, 1253940, 1253972, 1253938, 1253939, 1253974, 1253973, 1253975, 1253976, 1253979, 1253977, 1253978.