Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, April 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms in northeast parts of the area
  today this evening...primarily 5pm-9pm. Large, damaging hail
  is the primary risk, with a lesser risk for isolated damaging
  wind.

- Cooler and breezy Friday. Areas of frost and subfreezing
  temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning.

- More chances for rain Saturday into Sunday, although some
  areas (especially west) may stay mostly/completely dry.

- Above normal temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

The primary concern today is the potential for severe
thunderstorms for a brief window this evening.

As of 3pm, the cold front that will provide a focus for
convection stretches from McCook to Grand Island to Columbus.
Storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of this front in
the 4-6pm timeframe, although CAMs continue to indicate the the
highest potential for thunderstorms will be east of Highway 281
(where the Enhanced Risk resides). Any storms that develop will
be able to tap into 50-60kts of effective shear and MUCAPE on
the order of 2000-3000j/kg...favoring the development of
supercells with large, damaging hail and possibly isolated
severe wind.

The severe threat ends by around 8-9pom as storms depart to the
east. The rest of the overnight is expected to remain dry, other
than some spotty sprinkles over our north.

Friday will be much cooler with a breezy north wind in the
post-frontal airmass. High temperatures may struggle to reach 50
degrees in some areas. There are still some low PoPs in southern
areas Friday night, but overall models have trended drier. With
this drier trend, confidence has increased that low temperatures
will dip into the 30s and possibly even upper 20s Friday night
into Saturday morning. Sensitive plants and outdoor hoses/pipes
should be protected, especially in northwestern parts of the
forecast area.

Rain chances increase again on Sunday as the upper trough moves
through. Best chances for rain will remain over eastern parts of
the area. Some of these areas COULD see a meaningful/beneficial
rain, but it doesn't look as favorable for western areas. The
12Z ensemble suite shows only a 20-30% chance for 0.10" of rain
for in our west/northwest (Dawson up to Valley County).

Next week, ensembles favor above normal temperatures returning
on Monday with off/on chances for rain (highest chances later in
the week).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms are expected to focus primarily to the northeast
of GRI/EAR this evening. The potential for EAR/GRI to be
impacted by thunderstorms has decreased below 30 percent,
therefore the mention of thunder has been removed from this TAF.

Winds shift to the north as the cold front moves thorugh this
evening. Gusts up to 30kts continue overnight and into Friday
morning.

Additionally, MVFR stratus is favored (70% chance) to move in
early Thursday morning...potentially lasting into Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ082>085.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
235 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
235 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm for portions of
north central Kansas and south central Nebraska this afternoon due
to low humidity and gusty southwest winds.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly in areas
north of Interstate 80 and east of Highway 281. Some of these
storms could become severe with hail to the size of golf balls (or
larger) and wind gusts over 60 MPH. The primary timeframe is 5pm
to 9pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Patchy frost is possible over most of the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Subfreezing temperatures are most favored to
occur in areas northwest of a line from McCook to Grand Island to
Columbus.

There are low chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, but the
potential for severe weather appears to be on the lower end.

Another round of patchy frost is possible Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings