Hail in Missouri, September 24, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intervals of showers and storms will continue through this
  evening. Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this
  afternoon, mainly over western Kentucky.

- Heavy rainfall through Wednesday may lead to localized flash
  flooding issues.

- Slightly below normal temperatures through the remainder of
  the week turn more seasonable by the weekend with dry weather
  conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Modest low-level warm advection and about 500 J/kg of elevated
instability continue to produce areas of light rain and embedded
showers over the area this morning. This activity is expected to
persist through the pre-dawn hours before the approach of the
parent upper trough shifts forcing and likely reduces precip
coverage for a period. Clouds may start to break up in the late
morning and afternoon allowing for a little destabilization
during the day today before the upper trough and associated
cold front approach from the northwest. This should see activity
start to pick up again in the afternoon, likely persisting into
the early evening.

Severe risk overall appears fairly muted but there is a little
better overlap of modest instability and favorable deep/low
level shear forecast over the southern Pennyrile region where
SPC has highlighted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
today. PWAT values remain about 1.8 to 1.9. Storm motion will
probably be sufficient to prevent significant flash flooding
issues but another round of localized flooding will be possible
today, especially in areas that have received heavy rain over
the last couple of days.

Guidance consensus slips the front through by midnight with
rain/shower chances tapering off by that point. In its wake a
drier airmass sets up. The initial upper pattern brings broad
surface ridging behind the front. Then GFS/ECMWF deterministic
and ensemble guidance show a more chaotic pattern with multiple
closed and semi-cutoff lows. The GFS is a little more forceful
in keeping a more blocked pattern setup and keeping low level
moisture at bay where the ECMWF creeps a little bit more
moisture in under a stalled cut-off low. For now have continued
with a drier forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Ongoing MVFR/IFR stratus will see rising bases towards low VFR
this afternoon. However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along a passing cold front, which
will create isolated periods of heavy thunderstorm activity
through early tonight. Lingering rain showers will diminish by
the predawn hours, but IFR/MVFR low stratus (and perhaps some
fog at PAH and CGI) will linger through mid-morning Thursday.
Winds will be light from the N or variable through the overnight
hours around 3-6 kts, increasing from the north at 6-10 kts
after 15z Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
155 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-250700-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White-
Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-
Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-
Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-
Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-
Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-
Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-
Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
155 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 /255 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated this
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. A few
storms could become severe with gusty winds and hail the main severe
weather threat. Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated flash
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather according to standard
operating procedure.

JGG