On the 15th, the Quad State was positioned in the warm sector ahead of a Northern Plains low pressure system. In Southeast Missouri, effective shear was 50-70kts, MLCAPE was 1500-2000J/kg, and DCAPE was around 700-800J/kg.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
On the 15th, the Quad State was positioned in the warm sector ahead of a Northern Plains low pressure system. In Southeast Missouri, effective shear was 50-70kts, MLCAPE was 1500-2000J/kg, and DCAPE was around 700-800J/kg. A capping inversion kept severe weather potential at bay but, ahead of an area of moderate rain, gusty non-thunderstorm winds blew down tree branches and some shingles in parts of Southeast Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:05 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 305 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather risk remains highly conditional this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms so far have been elevated with hail being the main concern. If a strong cap can break, all hazards including large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind would be possible. - A significant severe weather outbreak is likely Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Widespread damaging wind is the greatest risk, but scattered large hail and strong tornadoes will also be probable. - More unsettled weather returns Sunday night through Wednesday with more severe weather potential, especially on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A broad 500 mb trough ejecting across the central CONUS will cause increasing height falls this evening across the FA. Dewpoints are now in the 70s with MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg. While a cluster of convection has now entered portions of southeast Missouri, a stout EML between 900-825mb is still present on model soundings supporting elevated convection. Given steep 3-6 km lapse rates between 8.0-9.0 C/km and 60-70 kts of sfc-6 km shear, the main concern will be the potential for storms to produce extremely large hail. Confidence still remains low in the ability to erode the cap due to modest synoptic scale forcing for ascent along with how widespread convective spatial coverage will be into this evening. Thermal profiles also indicate a lot of dry air in the column further north which may limit coverage. Overall, the risk remains very conditional, but if storms do manage to become more surface based, all hazards will become probable. Another round of scattered convection will be possible overnight into early Friday morning, but the parameters overall are more marginal for severe weather at best. If coverage this afternoon ends up being more widespread, it may help to push the boundary further south of the FA. With that said, as an embedded 500 mb shortwave digs into IL/MO Friday afternoon as the left exit region of a 250 mb 120-130 kt jet max provides increasing upper level divergence. Robust forcing and lift will cause a residual EML to quickly erode by Friday afternoon, supporting explosive convective initiation. Confidence remains high in a significant severe weather outbreak occurring with SPC's D2 outlook now upgraded to a moderate risk across the entire FA. The parameters are quite alarming for a higher end event with 3000-5000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 60 kts of effective bulk shear. Given a theta-e 3-6 km difference of 30-40K and DCAPE over 1100 J/kg, the greatest concern will be the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts upwards 70-80 mph. While more scattered, the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes will also be fairly significant given steep 3-6 km lapse rates between 7.5- 8.5 C/km, 30-40 kts of sfc-1km shear, 3CAPE around 80 J/kg. Cannot stress enough the potential for strong tornados with STP values around 6 to 8 and sfc-1 km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2. The only uncertainty is how quickly convective initiation occurs as the 12z CAMs differ by a few hours between 17- 20z. As for the storm mode, storms initially will be more discrete and supercelluar with all hazards before quickly growing upscale into a MCS with a transition to more of a damaging wind and QLCS tornado risk. The only good news is the severe weather risk should be mainly east of the FA by 04z Friday night. After fropa occurs with a cold front, dry and tranquil weather conditions can be expected on Saturday. Another round of unsettled weather quickly returns by Sunday as a warm front lifts back north. Daily chances for showers and storms continue through Wednesday as another 500 mb trough approaches. The pattern remains favorable for more severe weather potential, especially on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A mix of mid to high level clouds will continue to increase in coverage this afternoon across the region. A few spotty showers or rumble of thunder is possible after 20z, but confidence is too low in the spatial coverage to include in the TAFs. More widespread convection remains possible during the overnight hours into early Friday morning, but model guidance still differs on placement. South to southwest winds tonight around 5-10 kts increase to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts Friday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 316 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-162030- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 316 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 /416 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the entire quad-state area. Conditions may not quite come together for thunderstorms to form, but if they do very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A more substantial risk for severe thunderstorms exists Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Supercells with a large hail and tornado risk may then form into a large complex of storms with a significant damaging wind threat. Additional storms are expected from Sunday night through Wednesday with severe weather possible especially on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed on Friday. DW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
MOZ108>110-152015-
Butler MO-Stoddard MO-Ripley MO-
233 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY...BUTLER AND
SOUTHWESTERN STODDARD COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...
At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Success, or 8 miles southeast of Doniphan, moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Doniphan, Naylor, Neelyville, Qulin, Fisk, Harviell,
Milltown, Oxly, and Fairdealing.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 9098 3657 9099 3689 9038 3663 8995
3663 9015 3660 9018 3655 9018 3654 9021
3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 252DEG 47KT 3652 9074
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SHAWKEYThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A report of tree limbs down and some shingles blown off a building was reported south of Neelyville with winds estimated at 50mph. The Poplar Bluff ASOS reported wind gusts to 44mph.
Small to medium sized branches were downed by non-thunderstorm winds in and around Bernie.
Wind gusts measured up to 44mph at KSIK in Sikeston.
Several tree branches and utility lines were downed in New Madrid from gusty non-thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1271453, 1271457, 1271452, 1271456.