Damaging Winds in Missouri, March 14, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very strong, multi-hazard storm system will all severe modes
  possible expected this afternoon into this evening.

- Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Kansas-
  Missouri border this afternoon, racing northeastward into
  central and northeast Missouri by early evening. Damaging wind
  gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all
  potential hazards with these storms.

- Strong to damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts are expected
  across the region through this evening. There is a near-100
  percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph for the entire
  area, and probabilities of 55 mph approach 50 percent for
  eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri.

- Very dry air will move into the region from the southwest this
  afternoon. With the expected strong winds, critical fire-
  weather conditions are forecast for late morning through this
  evening. These conditions are exceptionally rare for this
  area, and all precautions to prevent fire starts should be
  taken.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Continuing to monitor the severe-weather and fire-weather
potential across the area today. Elevated convection has moved
into southern portions of our CWA with decently impressive
convective cores, apparently tied to a weak predecessor
shortwave trough shifting through central Oklahoma early this
morning. Fortunately, this convection is expected to remain
mostly sub-severe owing to stability present below the
convective bases (although the winds off the deck are very
strong, so it will not take much to reach severe thresholds),
as the storms race northeastward near 60 mph. There is
reasonable agreement that this convection will have little
influence on the primary round of convection this afternoon
associated with the surging dryline entering the CWA by early
afternoon.

Recent CAMs have been quite consistent in initiating convection
near or just southwest of the KC metro between 2 and 4 pm, with
the storms rapidly forming an arcing band and intensifying in
the subsequent 2-4 hours as they race northeastward/eastward
into north-central/central Missouri. Forecast proximity
soundings in the region of initiation have rather straight
hodographs, albeit with sizable speed shear leading to effective
helicity ~150-200 J/kg, in an environment of MLCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. With the aforementioned fast mid/upper flow and intense
deep-layer shear (60-80 kt), severe convection is assured, with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat. With high LCLs, a
tendency for convective mode to be linear/banded, and limited
directional shear initially, the tornado threat still appears
modest in the early stages of storm development. However,
forecast proximity soundings farther east (say, east of U.S.
Highway 65) become noticeably more favorable for tornadoes, with
effective SRH 200-400 J/kg owing to increased veering of winds
with height. CAMs also depict individual/cellular elements
within the arcing band of convection, suggesting that at least
embedded supercell structures may develop.

For our CWA, the threat of severe weather should end by around 7
pm, with extremely fast storm motions (50-60 kt) being a
noteworthy aspect of this event. However, behind the surging
dryline, a period of extremely dangerous fire-weather conditions
exists, with winds gusting 45+ mph and relative humidity
lowering below 25 percent for several hours. And in the
meantime, gradient winds are on the increase across the area,
with several surface observations near/above wind advisory
criteria already.

Overall, the forecast is on track, but will continue to update
as the situation evolves.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

     Major storm system to affect the region through tonight...

Forecast is on track for multiple hazards to affect the region
through tonight in association with an intense cyclone
developing in the High Plains today. Objective upper-air
analysis indicates a strongly negatively-tilted trough surging
northeastward through the central Plains, poleward of a 125-150+
kt 250-mb jet streak in much of the southern U.S. and coincident
with a 100+ kt 500-mb jet streak lifting eastward north of the
upper low. The strongest portion of the surface-pressure
gradient will be reaching the forecast area this afternoon, and
associated strong gradient winds will peak from early afternoon
through mid-evening as a result. Gusts have already exceeded 45
mph this morning in portions of the area, well displaced from
the maximum pressure gradient...suggesting that our peak winds
forecast for this afternoon are mainly on track (45-55 mph with
isolated gusts to 60 mph). For more on the severe-weather and
fire-weather threats in the near term, please see the Mesoscale
section above.

Convection will race eastward of the CWA this evening (after 7
pm), with lingering fire-weather concerns through the late
evening owing to continued intense mixing on the lee side of the
surging dryline. CAMs have indicated a second surge in wind
gusts during the evening, as the nocturnal enhancement of the
low-level jet occurs before it lifts northeast in tandem with
the surface low. Winds will then diminish during the overnight
hours. Meanwhile, wraparound precipitation may clip far
northern/northwestern portions of the area (dependent on the
surface low's track). Otherwise, the area should be dry tonight
into Saturday.

A curious nugget with the forecast Saturday night is the
development of low-level frontogenetical forcing well southward
of the lifting low (by this point in the Upper Great Lakes
region into Ontario). Coarser models like the GFS indicate
little in the way of precipitation for our region during this
period, but several CAMs (and the CMC) have a period of light
precipitation as this frontogenesis maximizes. Meanwhile,
thermodynamic profiles are marginally favorable for some
snowflakes to mix in. Have included rain/snow shower chances for
this threat through the evening/overnight hours; notably,
negligible impacts are expected.

Otherwise, the main story for the weekend will be the colder
temperatures (highs around 20-25 degrees colder on Saturday
versus Friday), with near- to sub-freezing lows expected
Saturday night. Similar high temperatures should be expected on
Sunday as the larger-scale trough continues to move through the
central U.S.

By Monday, high pressure shifts east of the area while a surface low
deepens on the lee side of the Rockies. This will allow modest WAA
to get underway and coupled with quasi-zonal flow aloft will aid in
temperatures rising into the 70s. Enhanced WAA will continue on
Tuesday as a upper level trough moves from the eastern Rockies into
the central Plains allowing high to further rise into the mid 70s to
near 80. The next chance for precipitation will arrive Wednesday
into Wednesday night as the aforementioned upper level trough swings
through the region. Ensembles continue to indicate potential for
wintry precipitation in association with this system, with
long-range ensemble probabilities of 50-70 percent for
measurable snow near the MO/IA border and 20-40 percent for at
least an inch of snow. However, deterministic members remain
quite variable with surface low track and timing, and run-to-run
volatility/variability is quite high. Significant changes to the
forecast for this time period are to be expected as the event
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Initial band of
showers and thunderstorm are expected to clear terminal space by
the start of the forecast period, with wind speeds notable
increasing in the wake. Additional convection expected to
develop near/SW of the TAF sites by 20Z, with rapid movement
across terminals. The arrival of thunderstorms and in its
immediate wake will also feature a window (2030-2230Z) of very
strong SSW wind gusts up to 45-50kts. Expect for wind speeds to
remain strong, but slowly decrease through the late evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ020-021-
     028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-022>025-031>033-039-040-046.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

MESOSCALE...CMS
DISCUSSION...73/CMS
AVIATION...Blair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
408 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-150915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
408 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A very strong storm system will move through the region on today.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop near or just east of the
Kansas-Missouri border during the afternoon, racing eastward through
central and northeast Missouri by early evening. Damaging wind
gusts, marginally severe hail, and a couple of brief tornadoes are
all possible. In addition, strong to damaging non-thunderstorm wind
gusts are expected across the area this afternoon and evening. With
very dry air moving into the region from the southwest during the
afternoon, fire-weather conditions will become extremely critical,
especially for areas south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SSW Easton            39.26N 95.16W
03/14/2025  E65 MPH          Leavenworth        KS   Emergency Mngr

            65 mph winds near 251st and Springdale Rd.
            Also had dime size hail.

&&

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
110 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

MOZ002-004-012-013-141845-
De Kalb MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
110 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN GENTRY...SOUTHEASTERN
NODAWAY...ANDREW AND NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
CDT...

At 109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Savannah, moving north at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gentry, Ravenwood, Barnard, Savannah, Rosendale, Conception, Bolckow,
King City, Rea, Maryville, Clyde, Pickering, Stanberry, Ford City,
Helena, Guilford, Amazonia, Arkoe, Union Star, and Conception
Junction.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 57 and 63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 9461 4039 9460 4039 9454 4035 9437
      3987 9456 3989 9493 3990 9494 3990 9497
      4046 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 195DEG 65KT 3995 9483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
257 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NW Paola              38.62N 94.91W
03/14/2025  M58 MPH          Miami              KS   Public

            Private weather sensor. Precipitation
            recorded at time of measurement.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
301 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Clare              38.82N 94.88W
03/14/2025  M59 MPH          Johnson            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KIXD Olathe New Century
            Aircenter.

&&

CMS