During the evening hours and overnight hours of July 16 into July 17, storms brought severe weather, heavy rain, and flash flooding to portions of Missouri.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
During the evening hours and overnight hours of July 16 into July 17, storms brought severe weather, heavy rain, and flash flooding to portions of Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:48 PM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several chances for scattered to widespread storms this afternoon into the night. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. - Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated today mainly for areas along and south of I-70. Triple digit heat indices are possible. This is dependent on how storms and features develop through the afternoon. - Confidence growing in widespread triple digit heat indices this weekend into the first half of next week. Heat indices up to 110 F possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A cold front, extending out of a surface low over the MN/IA/WI border (as of 19Z), stretches across southern IA, in between HWY-36 and just north of the KC Metro. This afternoon, a few thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front continuing to push south into our area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with CAPE values exceeding 3,000 J/kg aiding in storm formation. Bulk shear values are slightly better than they have been ranging from 25-30 kts. Even though this is not ideal for severe storms, this may be just enough for them to hold together long enough to produce isolated severe conditions. Inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft, DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong to damaging winds. However, there is still some uncertainty as CAMs diverge on solutions. The NAMNST shows widespread convection developing along and south of the I-70 corridor including the KC Metro. The HRRR keeps the convection fairly isolated mostly along and south of I-70. So, Hi-Res models suggest that we could see isolated to widespread convection south of HWY-36. Models seem to agree the front stalls out somewhere south of HWY-36 near I-70. The coverage of storms will depend on how much the environment is able to recover given this morning's convection. The current satellite shot (as of 19Z) shows that extensive cloud coverage has dissipated and cu fields have developed in the southern half of MO. Another round of storms is possible late this evening into early Thursday as the lagging elevated fronts near the 925MB-850MB layer continues to push farther south. Strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Storms are anticipated to be elevated as a diurnal cap develops across area. Good instability (1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE) will help with strengthening updrafts and 20-30 kts of shear may help storms to organize. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall (PWATs around 2 inches) will be the main concerns. But again, high uncertainty still remains. The severe potential late this evening will be dependent on whether or not the atmosphere will be able to recover from this afternoon's convection (if it is realized). If there is robust afternoon convection, strong to damaging winds will be the main concern with heavy rain being the secondary threat. If there is not robust afternoon convection, then the main threat will be heavy rainfall with strong to damaging winds being the secondary threat. The severe threat is anticipated to diminish the deeper into the night go. However, areas that have already received multiple rounds of rain (mainly northern MO) could see isolated flooding especially if storms begin to train. For now, MBE vectors just after midnight keep storms somewhat progressive, but uncertainty is still high. Thursday afternoon, there will be a chance for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms with remnant surface boundaries as well as a H500 shortwave moving through the flow. For our area, severe chances appear to be very low due to weak forcing and a fairly stable environment. Slightly more favorable conditions for severe weather will remain in southern MO. As far as temperatures for tomorrow, highs are anticipated to range in the mid to upper 70s mainly north of I-70 and low to mid 80s south of I-70. The difference will be mostly felt in the decrease in dew point temperature with most areas remaining below 70 F. Some areas south of the KC Metro may reach the low 70s. Mid to upper level ridging residing over the western U.S. tracks towards the east as we go into the weekend. A surface high also pushes over the eastern U.S. shifting winds to the south. This will result in the start of a warming trend this Friday into early next week. As heat indices climb to 100-110 F, heat headlines may be necessary. Confidence continues to grow as guidance remains consistent with each model run. A few weak shortwaves bringing spotty chances for rain may help to cool temperatures a few degrees, but high uncertainty exists in timing and location with these features. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions to start the TAF period. A round of storms will be possible this afternoon, however left in a PROB30 group due to low confidence in location. Another rounds of storms is possible in the overnight hours, but again there is high uncertainty with timing and location. Winds gradually shift more northerly as a cold front pushes south of the terminals. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-171006- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on potential weather hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on potential weather hazards. .KEY MESSAGES... * Decaying convective system this morning will bring scattered to widespread storms to the area before sunrise. A few wind gusts to 50 mph are possible. * Outflow from that convective may foster new development this afternoon. Adds a large amount uncertainty to the forecast though. * Better chances for storms after sunset. A few strong to severe storms are possible with strong winds and locally heavy rain the main hazards. * High heat returns this weekend into next week. Increasing potential for heat index values near 110 next week.
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 161 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:39 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Downed tree and wires near Railroad Street in Higbee.
Downed tree on wires near Route NN south southeast of Moberly.
Downed tree and wires near County Road 190 south southeast of Moberly.
Quarter size reported between Riverside and Parkville.
Public report via mPING of three inch tree limbs downed.
Trees and limbs down at a residence in Independence.
Downed tree limb and wires near 10th Street.
MPING report of trees down Herndon Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1293386, 1293383, 1293384, 1288167, 1293387, 1293385, 1293388, 1293389.