Scattered thunderstorms developed across north Mississippi during the early morning hours of September 15, 2025. Weak shear and marginal instability limited the strength of the storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across north Mississippi during the early morning hours of September 15, 2025. Weak shear and marginal instability limited the strength of the storms. One strong storm caused some minor damage in Panola County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 14, 10:33 PM CST, 6 hours 57 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1133 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1132 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue into midweek. - Temperatures will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the week. - Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Showers and storms that have been traveling through the northern third of the region have begun to weaken as a diurnal inversion begins to build. A few showers and storms could still develop overnight, especially given the presence of a southward-moving outflow boundary. CAMs do try to bring higher shower and storm coverage to the eastern half of the region by 09z-10z, lasting through the morning hours. However, MLCAPE will be low (< 1000 J/kg) with weak forcing, the presence of MLCIN from the overnight inversion, and 20 knots or less of effective shear. Therefore, stronger thunderstorms capable of severe hazards are not anticipated. Looking at a synoptic scale, a highly amplified omega block continues to persist over the Mississippi River Valley and into western Ontario. The trough on the eastern periphery of the block has settled over the eastern coastline with light northwesterlies still present over the region. The presence of subtle troughing could keep afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the next few days. However, PoPs still remain low alongside similar confidence in the placement and coverage of any precipitation, but afternoon showers are expected. In the meantime, highs will still be very warm with temperatures peaking in the 90s, slightly higher along and west of the Mississippi River Delta today. Throughout Tuesday, the trough over the Rockies will travel north and east into Canada, shoving the northern portions of the ridge into the Great Lakes. This puts the eastern CONUS into a rex block (high over low) through at least Wednesday as the southeastern upper low remains stationary. Therefore, afternoon/evening precipitation could linger through Wednesday night, but guidance is not too optimistic with PoPs below 15% Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings show a stout mid-level inversion around 700 mb that would serve to suppress any convection, but recent days have overperformed on moisture, producing higher MLCAPE that has allowed parcels to surpass these layers. Regardless, the forecast could go either way, and without upper air observations, it would prove naught to attempt placing mentionable PoPs anywhere at this time. Therefore, have kept the 0%-10% from the NBM with subsequent updates to this forecast likely. The latter half of the week will see the eastern upper low drift north and east. At the same time, ridging will remain, although notably weaker. High temperatures decrease a few degrees in response with widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s. Both the ECMWF and GFS are both showing a trough over the Central Plains by Friday evening. Ensembles show large variability with regards to the position and eastward movement of this trough, casting some uncertainty regarding any QPF potential in the Mid-South. Regardless, NBM PoPs are in the 30% - 40% range Friday and Saturday alongside a smattering of low QPF (< .5"). These values are expected to change in the coming days as we get close to this weekend and ensembles are able to come into better agreement. Sunday and Monday, ensemble uncertainty rises significantly regarding the evolution of the trough, but generally move it east into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Therefore, PoPs are expected to remain for these days to end the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Mostly rain-free conditions anticipated to occur at most TAF sites overnight. The exception may be at MKL and have added VCSH in for at least a few hours. Isolated to perhaps scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop near MEM during peak heating Monday and have included a PROB30 for the potential between 21Z-02Z. Confidence is lower on coverage at JBR for late Monday afternoon and left out any mention in the 6Z TAF set. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail outside of any thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Elevated fire danger will continue through the middle of the week. Dry fuels and MinRH around 30 percent will encourage wildland fire development. However, light 20ft winds will keep fire spread to a minimum. Wetting rain chances return by the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:30 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight-line winds caused minor damage to the roof covering at the abandoned Crenshaw Elementary School.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1294394.