A deepening upper level low traversed across the upper Midwest and stretched a cold front over eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. Strong frontogenesis, aided by a strong upper level jet, sagged the aforementioned front southeast into the Mid-South.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A deepening upper level low traversed across the upper Midwest and stretched a cold front over eastern Kansas and southern Missouri. Strong frontogenesis, aided by a strong upper level jet, sagged the aforementioned front southeast into the Mid-South. This quick moving system brought a mix of wintry precipitation from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Arctic air was unable to reach the southernmost areas which resulted in lower snow accumulations, but in the north; strong frontal forcing and cold air present resulted in impactful snow accumulations. Less than typical snow-to-liquid ratios prevailed Tuesday evening, but increased during the overnight hours before the upper low traversed east by sunrise Wednesday morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 11:26 PM CST, 34 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1126 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
- Heavy mixed precipitation has mostly changed over to snow. As
much as 5 inches of snow is forecast for areas along the KY/TN
state line through Wednesday morning. 1 to 3 inches of snow is
forecast along the I-40 corridor, with lesser amounts to the
south. Only light glazing of ice is expected from freezing rain,
mainly in north Mississippi.
- The winter storm system will likely bring banded areas of snow,
with accumulations varying more than usual over short
distances. Sleet along and south of I-40 will also have the
potential to reduce snow accumulations, while making travel
hazardous.
- Bitterly cold temperatures will spread through the Midsouth
Wednesday and persist through the early weekend. Wind chills
will drop to the single digits areawide Wednesday morning.
Thursday morning's wind chills will drop below zero north of
I-40, to the around zero south of I-40. A Cold Weather Advisory
is in effect for the next two mornings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
At midafternoon, KLZK radar showed wintry precipitation underway
over much of AR, downstream an open longwave trough over the
southern high plains. GOES IR and water vapor imagery showed
banded areas of lift extending well downstream of the upper trough.
Little has changed in the short range guidance, with respect to
snow potential. NBM deterministic snow amounts remain below LREF,
though both ensemble systems are likely smoothing the snow
banding potential. Official snow forecast is near the NBM 75th
percentile. Locally higher (and lower) accumulations are likely as
frontogentic bands set up this evening and early overnight.
Adding the forecast uncertainty is evening sleet potential along
and south of I-40. The official snow forecast exhibits a rather
sharp southern gradient along and just south of I-40. Winter
weather headlines remain unchanged from this morning.
There is greater certainty with respect to bitterly cold temperatures
from tonight through Saturday morning. As the snow tapers off and
exits east of the TN River Saturday morning, a 1054mb Arctic
surface pressure ridge center will start it's southward track
through the northern Great Plains, while the leading edge of the
Arctic air enters the FL panhandle. This airmass will take several
days to lift out of the Midsouth, despite upper level pattern
deamplification. Saturday afternoon appears to be our first time
above freezing, but perhaps only barely so over northeast AR, the
MO bootheel and northwest TN.
Eventually, snow will melt and temps will return to near normal
under quasi-zonal west-northwest flow aloft early next week.
Thereafter, upper level pattern trends appear more dicey, with
the GEFS and EPS ensemble means depicting another longwave trough
over the eastern U.S.. Such a pattern would return below normal
temperatures to the Midsouth, while well above normal conditions
prevail over the western half of the CONUS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Precipitation has already transitioned over to snow
resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites except TUP. A sleet
and snow mixture will develop and affect TUP in the next few
hours. Conditions should gradually improve to MVFR conditions
around or after sunrise when wintry precipitation ends. VFR
conditions anticipated to begin returning early Thursday morning
at JBR and MEM. Gusty N/NNE winds expected through much of the
period.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ARZ049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for MOZ113-115.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088.
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CST Thursday
for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TNZ053>055-
089>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJCPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
943 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM Snow Henry 36.20N 88.42W
02/18/2025 M1.3 Inch Henry TN Trained Spotter
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1111 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM Snow 1 WNW Paris 36.30N 88.32W
02/18/2025 M2.0 Inch Henry TN Emergency Mngr
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1112 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM Snow Union City 36.43N 89.04W
02/18/2025 M3.8 Inch Obion TN Trained Spotter
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1117 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1116 PM Snow Springville 36.25N 88.15W
02/18/2025 M2.7 Inch Henry TN Broadcast Media
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1119 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1115 PM Snow 2 ENE Olive Branch 34.97N 89.79W
02/18/2025 M1.2 Inch DeSoto MS Trained Spotter
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1139 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1139 PM Snow 5 SSE Big Sandy 36.17N 88.05W
02/18/2025 M1.0 Inch Benton TN Trained Spotter
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Mixed wintry precipitation impacts were felt on roadways prior to switching to snowfall that accumulated up to two inches.
Mixed wintry precipitation impacts were felt on roadways prior to switching to snowfall that accumulated up to an inch.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1236503, 1236505.