High Wind event occurred within the Red River Valley during the morning and afternoon hours.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
High Wind event occurred within the Red River Valley during the morning and afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 10:40 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter and/or wind warning level impacts will occur across
eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota late tonight into
Saturday. Winter impacts are more favored across the far
southern Red River Valley into areas east of the valley across
Minnesota.
- For the area of winter impacts: precipitation will begin this
evening, primarily as rain and freezing rain, eventually
changing over to widespread snow. Most areas will receive
light ice accumulations to a tenth of an inch and then 2-6
inches of snow. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
expected during the peak and may allow for totals reaching a
foot.
- Blizzard conditions are expected on Saturday across a portion
of west central Minnesota where the heaviest snow falls in
combination with the strongest winds. Near blizzard conditions
are expected elsewhere while snow is falling.
- For the wind impacts: Within the Red River Valley, north winds
on Saturday will be 35 to 45 mph, gusting up to 60 mph, with
slightly weaker winds west of the Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A persistent band of precipitation has parked itself over the Devils
Lake Basin up towards Langdon this evening. This band is being
driven by frontogensis. Generally, precipitation started as rain,
but has now transitioned to snow with surface temperatures in the
mid 20s. This band is not expected to move much over the next few
hours, which may result in minor snow accumulations.
Attention turns to the south once we approach midnight. Precipitation
is still expected to break out across southeastern ND and west
central MN as the large area of low pressure pushes north. The
latest CAMs have been persistent with the placement of the heaviest
band of QPF across the eastern edge of the FA, where we have winter
warning headlines in effect. Interestingly, several CAMs try to
develop a narrow corridor of stronger precipitation for a few hours
overnight further west into southeastern ND and the central Red
River Valley. This is collocated with a ribbon of frontogenesis.
Overall, headlines remain on track.
UPDATE Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Surface front is shifting through the central valley this hour,
with cooler air filtering into NE ND and into NW MN.
Temperatures are in the 30s already in NE ND, with the 60s still
being reported in west central MN, SE ND, and into portions of
north central MN. Temperatures still remain warm aloft around
the 850mb level, with a stout warm nose noted in BL profiles.
Around the 850mb level in north central ND and into the Devils
Lake Basin we are starting to see the cooler air move down. This
will help transition wintry mix and rain to snow later in the
evening for DVL and overnight for the rest of the area. With a
stout warm nose around DVL and surface temperatures in the lower
30s this increases the concern for potential freezing rain.
Ground temps are still well above freeze helping to limit any
impacts, but once those cool faster toward freezing impacts
start to increase.
Around the valley we are starting to see winds ramp up with
gusts already reach the 30-35mph range behind the surface front.
Aloft, we are above freezing and thus the freezing rain concern
for the valley is the same as the Devils Lake Basin. The
uncertainty is how cool ground temps can get when freezing rain
chances are at their highest. Right now best chances are around
that midnight through the early morning. Another uncertainty is
the area of heaviest snow. Guidance continues to trend the
heaviest snow further into west central MN, with signals of warm
air remaining aloft increasing the freezing rain threat for
those areas. If freezing rain last longer, this has the
potential to cut into snow fall totals. Otherwise, the headlines
continue as they are right now. We will continue to assess any
adjustments they may or may not be needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...Synopsis...
A very strong extratropical cyclone is rapidly deepening across
the Central Plains. The center of the upper low is roughly a few
miles north of Wichita, with multiple elevated lobes of
vorticity stretching outward from it based on water vapor
satellite. Current surface analysis places the surface low
somewhere between Dodge City and Goodland Kansas with a strong
warm front, now stationary, all the way through our region,
splitting the Red River Valley. Pressure falls associated with
the cyclone appear to be 1-2mb/hour, and it will bring a very
strong pressure gradient as this low arrives.
Expect this low to arrive later this evening and overnight,
bring very strong northerly winds across the area. This will
also combine with snow to create dangerous travel conditions,
possibly impossible in some locations. The main issue at this
point is where this will occur (see snow/blizzard section).
This system will move out fairly quickly, bringing relatively
quiet weather in its wake by Saturday night. Any potential
cleanup should be fairly simple given the short duration of the
event and the lack of other major events in the long range.
There are a few chances for additional accumulating snow Monday
and Tuesday, but amounts should be well below warning criteria.
...WINTER...
Rain will begin to overspread the area later this evening and
eventually will change over to freezing rain as the surface cold
front accelerates southeastward. Warm air aloft will remain in
place long enough to facilitate a period of freezing rain prior
to snow. Generally speaking, because the transition to snow will
be fairly quick, totals for freezing rain will generally be
0.01"-0.1", with a very low chance for 0.25" (10% Chance).
A snow band will replace freezing rain overnight and
unfortunately we remain unsure of where exactly this band will
set up. Ensemble guidance has continued to trend eastward with
time and there will be a very tight gradient of snow amounts,
particularly on the western end where you may see a difference
from no snow to 6 inches of snow by a mere few miles.
Additionally, very strong vertical motion combined with very
strong instability will be conducive for 1-2 inch per hour
snowfall rates, especially between 7 AM and 12 PM CDT. Given the
track of the snow band being parallel to the long-axis of
precipitation and the heavy snow rates, it seems likely that
some portion of northwest Minnesota will see more than 6 inches,
possibly pushing a foot if conditions align correctly. Any
heavy snow totals between 8-12 inches will be along a thin line
and will not be the most common outcome. Most snow totals will
fall between 1-5 inches, with the heavier totals more towards
the snow band center.
Blizzard conditions are likely to develop along the tri-state
area between North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. This is
the most favored region for where the snowband will initially
originate and travel northeastward. This also colocates with
sustained winds between 30-40 mph and gusts to 60 mph, so
blizzard conditions are a near sure thing in this area. As the
band drifts northeastward, guidance differs in where it goes.
There is the potential for the Blizzard Warning to expand
northward depending on how the snow band evolves and if it
manages to stay in the region of highest winds. Regardless of
this, where the snowband pushes in there will be dangerous
travel conditions regardless due to at least accumulating snow.
...HIGH WIND WARNING...
As stated above, this event will be entirely driven by a tight
pressure gradient setting up across our area overnight tonight
as the low moves through. The wind signal remains very strong,
however with a lack of punchy cold air advection, gusts should
remain limited in intensity to "only" 50 knots. With the tight
pressure gradient and the wind direction being valley parallel,
a corridor of 35-45 mph sustained winds is likely to develop
with gusts to 60 mph possible at times, particularly between 7
AM and 12 PM.
Outside of the Red River Valley, the Devils Lake Basin will be
further away from the pressure gradient maxima, so sustained
winds should remain below warning level but will be skirting
close to the line. East of the Red River Valley, in the treed
areas in particular, the tight pressure gradient will still
exist, but without valley enhancement it seems like it will be
difficult to sustain high wind criteria. For this reason, expect
winds to approach just near high wind criteria but remain just
below.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Strong winds continue across the region, with gusts reaching
30-35kts for DVL, GFK, TVF, and FAR. A band of rain/snow and
snow is affecting the DVL region this hour, with visibility
reductions as low as a mile at times. This band is expected to
shift eastward reaching the GFK and TVF area over the next
several hours. First we will see a rain/snow mix and then a
change over to all snow as it moves across. Visibility
reductions and possible freezing rain as the band moves east
into the area. BJI is expected to see rain through the overnight
period with a change over to a wintry mix followed by snow
around the 12-15z timeframe. As the snow sets in it will be
heavy at times, with visibility reductions as low as 1/2SM. FAR
will see rain move in followed by a quick transition to a wintry
mix in the next several hours followed by snow around the 10-13z
timeframe. Possible freezing rain in FAR and BJI as the rain
transitions to the wintry mix.
Winds will continue to increase across the region out of the
north, with gusts nearing 50kts for GFK, FAR, and TVF by 10-14z
and continuing through the better part of the afternoon time
frame. DVL will be on the western edge of the strongest winds,
but is expected to see gusts up to 45kts. Near the end of the
TAF period conditions will start to improve, with winds
diminishing slowly and conditions clearing across the area.
There may be lingering BLSN in the BJI area through the rest of
the evening as wind gusts remain around 25kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ008-
016-027-029-030-039-053.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
NDZ039-053.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
MNZ001>004-007.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
MNZ002-003-005-008-013>015.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ006-
009-016-017-022>024-027-028-032.
Blizzard Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ029>031-
040.
&&
UPDATE...Rafferty/Spender
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...SpenderHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 MNZ006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-160445- Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-North Clearwater-South Beltrami- Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a low chance for scattered thunderstorms, the main hazard will be lightning. A band of heavy snow with 6 to 10 inches likely is expected with strong winds leading to occasional blizzard or near blizzard conditions. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A band of heavy snow is expected with strong winds leading to occasional blizzard or near blizzard conditions. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of snow, ice, visibility, and poor road conditions are appreciated. MNZ001>003-005-008-013>015-029-NDZ030-039-049-052-053-160445- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Roseau-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-Wilkin-Traill-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Light snow is expected with strong winds leading to occasional blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Winds occasionally gusting over 60 mph could produce damage to homes and knock down trees. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Light snow is expected with strong winds leading to occasional blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Winds occasionally gusting over 60 mph could produce damage to homes and knock down trees. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of snow, ice, visibility, and poor road conditions are appreciated. MNZ004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>029-038-054-160445- Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey- Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Barnes- Western Walsh- 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Strong winds are expected. Occasional gusts over 60 mph could produce damage to homes and knock down trees. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Strong winds are expected. Occasional gusts over 60 mph could produce damage to homes and knock down trees. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station MN138 Warren Minnesota Department of Transportation.
Mesonet station MN 135 Kent Minnesota Department of Transportation.
Mesonet station MN 114 Beltrami Minnesota Department of Transportation.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1250379, 1250375, 1250377.