A dryline across Illinois progressed east during the late afternoon and evening hours allowing for convection to overcome limited capping. As these storms progressed east, they encountered an unstable airmass near/south of a warm front with some storms producing localized damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A dryline across Illinois progressed east during the late afternoon and evening hours allowing for convection to overcome limited capping. As these storms progressed east, they encountered an unstable airmass near/south of a warm front with some storms producing localized damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 5:06 PM EST, 4 hours 7 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 606 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are likely this evening into the early overnight (8 pm through 2 am EDT). All hazards possible. - Another round of showers and storms is expected late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A few storms could become severe. - Warm temperatures through Friday will give way to cooler and drier conditions this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 High end severe threat (all hazards) remains in play this evening into the early overnight (8p-2a EDT) as any convection along an incoming dryline will have 35-40 knots of deep layer shear and 2000- 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with. The low level jet also increases this evening with 0-3 km storm-related helicity pushing 250-300 m2/s2 for a tornado threat. There will also be sufficient CAPE in the hail growth zone/EML with supercells for large hail, with any organization into segments supporting a wind damage threat mid-late evening. Expectations are still for convective initiation (scattered discrete supercells) in ne IL between 21-00z, likely congealing into quasi-linear segments or clusters with eastward progression into the local area thereafter. Capping at the base of an EML, and more favorable deep ascent and low level convergence lifting through WI and MI, brings into question storm evolution/chances for areas south of the US 30 corridor. Much higher confidence in strong to severe storms breaking through the cap and tracking east through northern zones as weak height falls/cooling aloft clips the lower Great Lakes. Drier air briefly filters in behind the front later tonight into most of the day Friday with highs once again well into the 80s. Moisture does return northward late Friday into Friday evening in advance of a secondary cold front and mid level shortwave (70-80 kt 500 mb jet) arriving from the Mid MS Valley. This should be enough to generate a round of showers and storms mainly Friday evening with deep forcing, moisture quality, and deep layer shear magnitudes favorable for scattered strong to severe storms. Instability magnitudes are lacking when compared to this evening however with the primary moisture/instability reservoir likely suppressed closer to the OH River. Dry air on leading edge with a sub-cloud inverted-V profile and high DCAPE values may support good downdraft potential and localized wind damage if more robust cells develop, along with a hail threat given lingering steep mid level rates. Dry and cooler weather will filter in behind Friday night's wave in time for the weekend, with Saturday also breezy. Rain chances eventually return toward the middle of as the next western CONUS upper trough slows or cut-off over the Midwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 601 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Minimal changes needed for the 00Z TAFs. The forecast is in great shape as we continue to monitor convection firing across the northern half of Illinois. We are expecting storms to enter Indiana around 00-01Z tonight and quickly move east/northeast. Given moderate to strong instability and ample shear, these storms will likely be strong to severe with a potential of some large hail and thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 45 to 50 knots. A few tornadoes are also possible. Ceilings remain VFR for now but will likely drop to MVFR this evening as clouds increase and storms move through the area. Thinking 01-04Z is the best timing for storms at KSBN and 03-05Z at KFWA. Storms depart by 06Z, with decreasing winds and partly cloudy skies ahead for the overnight hours. Tomorrow, southerly winds will once again increase, with gusts to 20 to 25 knots. Storms are possible Friday afternoon, with the best chances south of US 24. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Johnson
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Northern Indiana 229 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204- 216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-161830- Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte- Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams- Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 229 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 /129 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are likely this evening into the early overnight, mainly between 8 pm and 2 am EDT. All hazards will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters will likely be need this evening into the early overnight. LMZ043-046-161830- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 229 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. Storm-force wind gusts near 50 knots are possible along with large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Southerly wind gusts to 25 knots midday Friday may be hazardous to small craft. Additional thunderstorms are possible Friday evening.
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:13 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The ASOS at the Benton Harbor airport (KBEH) recorded a 61 mph wind gust.
A trained spotter reported a tree limb down.
A trained spotter reported a large, three foot diameter tree was blown down onto a house.
The ASOS at the Benton Harbor airport (KBEH) recorded a 72 mph wind gust.
Local media reported several large trees down.
Local media reported large trees down.
Local media reported two trees were uprooted with several large tree branches also blown down.
Emergency management officials reported tree limbs and power lines down from Three Rivers to Mendon.
The AWOS at the Three Rivers airport (KHAI) recorded a 59 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1257974, 1257977, 1257978, 1257975, 1257979, 1257980, 1257981, 1257982, 1257976.