Strong structural and longshore currents resulted in multiple rescues at New Buffalo Beach.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Strong structural and longshore currents resulted in multiple rescues at New Buffalo Beach.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 6:03 AM EST, 3 hours 57 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 703 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will develop Wednesday and persist through Friday with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices from 100 to 105. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return for the upcoming weekend. - There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches in Berrien County, MI and La Porte County, IN for this morning. Breaking waves and currents are expected. If visiting the beach, pay attention to beach flags and heed the advice of lifeguards or beach patrol. Conditions will improve by late morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Axis of showers and storms has pushed well south of the area along a stationary boundary, with another diffuse boundary pushing south through the CWA with decreasing dewpoints. Some patchy, shallow ground fog has been noted from time to time at a few locations, mainly in portions of lower MI and NW Ohio. Have added a mention of patchy fog in the grids through sunrise and will watch if the fog becomes more widespread or persistent for any possible headlines. 500 mb heights will slowly increase over the next couple of days, peaking late Wed into Thursday (594-596 dm). This will usher in a brief return to high heat indices with the worst conditions expected Thursday. The fine balance of temperature and dewpoints will be key in just how high we can get for heat indices, as dewpoints in the mid 70s or higher can limit air temperatures somewhat (around 90 to low 90s vs low to mid 90s). Those few degrees can make all the difference wrt advisory vs warning level values. Coordination took place with offices to our west and south on possible headlines. Appears that criteria should be met Thursday everywhere for an advisory, possibly in the W and N on Wednesday. Will continue to message in HWO and social media. As for precipitation chances, the increasing ridging will usher in very warm 700 mb temps (11 to 13 C), effectively capping the atmosphere and preventing any convection into Thursday. Model blend has some slgt chc to chc pops NW Thursday night, then increasing to likely in some areas Friday as the ridging breaks down somewhat and the first in a series of disturbances ridge the periphery of the ridge. Likely pops may be a touch high, but will leave alone for now. Pops will linger through the remainder of the period, mainly diurnally driven. The upper level ridge will build across the Plains, with heights even higher that the upcoming heat waves (596 to 599 dm). Our area will be oriented in a NW to SE gradient on the edge of the ridge, which could set the stage for thunderstorm complexes to develop upstream and track into the area. Something to watch later on down the road. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Predominantly VFR conditions at the TAF sites outside of early this morning where KFWA is currently VLIFR (1/4SM, OVC003). Expect this to clear up within the next hour or two, so beyond 15z expect some mid-high level clouds associated with a system along the stationary front to the south. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...MCD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 444 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-104-116-203-204-216- LMZ043-046-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-220845- Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Eastern St. Joseph IN- Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN- Southern Kosciusko-New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI- Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch- Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert- Allen OH- 444 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 /344 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan, northwest Ohio and the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees are forecast Wednesday through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ103-MIZ177-277-220845- Northern La Porte-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien- 444 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 /344 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a Moderate Swim Risk for the southeastern Lake Michigan beaches in La Porte and Berrien counties, mainly this morning. Dangerous swimming conditions are expected due to breaking waves and currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees are forecast Wednesday through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 529 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-211130- Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- Including the cities of Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville, Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne, Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert, Ohio City, Lima, Spencerville, and Bluffton 529 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 ...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING... Patchy fog, locally dense in some areas, will persist through 8 AM EDT across portions of northwestern Ohio. Motorists may encounter rapidly changing visibilities over short distances. Slow down and use your low beam headlights when encountering fog.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Nine people were rescued by lifeguards in three separate incidents from structural and longshore currents at New Buffalo Beach.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1283136.