Showers and storms moved across eastern Kentucky as a stalled stationary front sat near the Ohio River and northern Kentucky through the day, putting much of the state in the warm and unstable sector. A digging 500mb trough also pushed east into the Ohio Valley during the day and points southwest, leading to height falls and enhanced lift over eastern Kentucky.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Showers and storms moved across eastern Kentucky as a stalled stationary front sat near the Ohio River and northern Kentucky through the day, putting much of the state in the warm and unstable sector. A digging 500mb trough also pushed east into the Ohio Valley during the day and points southwest, leading to height falls and enhanced lift over eastern Kentucky. Storms had impacted eastern Kentucky for several days, including this particular day, leading to flooding. In fact, a trained spotter in McCreary County reported a 24 hour rain total of 1.99 inches and a 72 hour total of 4.89 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 15, 4:22 AM EST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 522 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the new week, with showers and thunderstorms expected on most days. - Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible today, with gusty winds the main concern. - Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring a low- end threat of excessive rainfall, with isolated occurrences of high water or flash flooding possible into Monday. - Look for temperature to climb distinctly above normal for daytime highs for the latter part of the new week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak area of low pressure over Kentucky early this morning amidst the warm and humid air mass. This is not only keeping temperatures and dewpoints elevated but also sustaining some isolated to scattered convection under partly cloudy skies. Away from any showers or storms winds are light from the south along with patches of fog where skies are clearer. Temperatures and dewpoints are currently running in the 65 to 70 degree range for most sites. Expect conditions to remain the same through dawn, and the fog development will have to be watched for a potential SPS or NPW if it becomes more substantial. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the initial 5h shortwave opening up and departing to the northeast this morning before the next one sets up to enter western Kentucky on Monday. This will mean that most of the mid level energy exits the area later today with quieter conditions on Monday along with an ever so slight uptick in heights. The still fairly small model spread through Monday evening supported using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to add in some timing details from the latest CAMs for the PoPs and Wx grids through the end of the holiday extended weekend. Sensible weather features more in the way of diurnally enhanced convection today and Monday as the air mass remains warm and humid with no clear focusing mechanism for convection but also a dearth of real limiting factors like a cap or warming aloft. Conditions are expected to be similar tonight as they have been for the past several with perhaps less in the way of convection and coverage owing to the quieter mid levels. This could promote more in the way of fog, especially if the clouds also thin out in response to those height rises through the column. The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on adjustments to the PoPs per the latest CAMs guidance for timing and magnitude through Monday evening. As for temperatures (and dewpoints) - again did not deviate far from the NBM guidance through the period given the high moisture content. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025 The main adjustments to the extended were to restore some terrain detail to the NBM temperatures each night after Thursday. Did also keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms around into Saturday afternoon with some uncertainty as to the ability of a late week front to clear the threat out of the area entirely. The previous long term discussion follows: The period will start with the main prevailing westerlies aloft in rather zonal flow across the Great Lakes and New England, with a trough in weaker flow extending southward over the Mississippi Valley. To the east of the trough subtle ridging is expected over eastern KY. At the surface, a weak, nearly stationary frontal boundary is forecast to be laid out near or just south of the Ohio River along the northern border of KY, with a warm and humid air mass still in place over our area. The ridging aloft, along with stable surface air in the morning, will probably keep the first part of Monday dry. However, latest model runs weaken the ridge and shift the entire regime slowly eastward, which would allow the trough to provide some upper level support for precip for the later part of the day, and a likely POP is being carried. Loss of instability in the diurnal cycle should allow for a decreasing trend in precip Monday evening. The upper trough will still be slowly approaching from the west on Tuesday, and with another diurnal heating cycle, another increase in convective precip is expected for the afternoon. The weak upper trough should finally be moving to our east on Tuesday night, and along with the diurnal loss of instability, a more pronounced decrease in precip is expected. Conditions aloft will be more benign on Wednesday, with weak and relatively flat flow. At the surface, the prior frontal boundary should be gone, but another cold front will be crossing the Midwest and bringing us an increase in low level southwesterly flow as the pressure gradient tightens in front of it. This front will be supported by a slightly more significant upper level trough moving east across the CONUS (moving onshore on the West Coast on Monday). Without any change in air mass and no cap expected, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop, but probably less coverage than the preceding couple of days. The cold front and its supporting upper trough are forecast to pass through on Thursday afternoon or evening, likely bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive for Friday into Saturday, but the amount of cooling and drying is unclear, with models not agreeing on the extent of strengthening of the upper trough as it passes by. Regardless of the strength, it should be enough to finally bring at least a couple days of dry weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025 There are still some lingering scattered showers and storms for parts of the aviation forecast area early this morning. These could yet bring lower visibilities to any TAF sites they pass over - but for now conditions are VFR. The coverage of the convection will wane through the rest of the night with warming cloud tops noted over the Cumberland Valley. Again, fog is expected to develop through the valleys tonight depending on the cloud clearing or thinning, and could possibly impact some of the TAF sites. Any fog would lift and clear by mid morning. In addition, low ceilings could move in for a time during the pre- dawn hours, before rising again later in the morning. Similar to Saturday, chances for showers and storms increase going into the afternoon, bringing gusty winds and lower visibilities along with them. Outside of storms, winds are expected to be around 5 kts first from the SW before becoming more WSW after 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF AVIATION...HAS/GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 410 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-160815- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- 410 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Some of the storms this afternoon and into the evening could produce strong wind gusts as well as downpours capable of producing localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GREIF
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:01 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained storm spotter reported 1.99 inches of rain had fallen in Whitley City in the last 24 hours. The spotter added that at the same location 4.89 inches of rainfall fell over the last 72 hours.
Greater than 6 inches of water was flowing over KY-80, about a mile NW of the Cedarville community.
A picture on social media showed downed trees and power lines blocking Croley Bend Road in Williamsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1292624, 1292625, 1292626.