Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the Green, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from January 31st through February 15th resulted in rising water levels on the Ohio and Green Rivers. The Green River took the brunt of the impact with major flooding from the Island area through Calhoun to near Jewel City.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the Green, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from January 31st through February 15th resulted in rising water levels on the Ohio and Green Rivers. The Green River took the brunt of the impact with major flooding from the Island area through Calhoun to near Jewel City. Numerous structures sustained flood damage in Rumsey and lower Calhoun. The Green River at Calhoun crested at 32.4 feet which is just above the major flood stage of 32 feet. Moderate flooding mainly of bottomland and farmland occurred around Paradise and throughout much of Muhlenberg county. Moderate flooding also occurred around Shawneetown on the Ohio, but only minor flooding occurred at Newburgh, Mt Vernon, and J.T. Myers. Flooding continued into March at Paradise, Calhoun, J.T. Myers, and Shawneetown.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 2:51 AM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 251 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - First disturbance comes through Monday evening through Tuesday evening bringing rain, sleet, and snow. Impacts look to be minimal due to warm ground temps. - The second disturbance comes through Wednesday to Wednesday night. Temperatures have continued to trend warmer and looks to be mostly rain and sleet. - The third system comes through Friday night through Sunday. This system would be all rain as temperatures warm significantly on Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 An active quasi zonal pattern aloft (with some fluctuations) this week will bring 3 systems through the area. Today we are dry with slightly cooler than average temps, tomorrow is dry with temps closer to average. Then our first of three systems comes through Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Along and north of the Ohio river and in adjacent MO areas there is a 60-70% chance of temperatures at or below freezing. This means that south of the Ohio river rain is expected, but areas along and north could see a wintry mix of sleet and snow. Minimal impacts are expected due to warmer ground temperatures. This system has plenty of moisture with it and liquid equivalents look to range from 0.25" to 1". Northern areas have less moisture, but could still see around 0.5" to 1" of snow but with little accumulation. The second system comes through Wednesday to Wednesday night and has continued to trend warmer. The NBM box and whisker plots are not very spread out for Wednesday's high temperatures. So there is more confidence in the warmer solutions. The 95th percentile for Paducah is around 55 degrees. The warmer trend is due to the regression of the Canadian high pressure that has been funneling the cold air south. Right now the track of the sfc low is still fairly uncertain but this looks to be most likely a rain and sleet event. Sleet looks most possible along the western most counties in SEMO and southern IL. Temps look too warm for any significant ice accumulation though, in fact had to go in and reduce the ice accumulation from the NBM solution since NBM does not recognize sleet. This system also has a lot of moisture with it and we could see liquid equivalents ranging from 0.25" to around 1.25" in the far southeast. The combination of both of these back to back systems could lead to some hydrologic concerns. There is a significant warming trend Friday and Saturday thanks to ridging building aloft. Highs will reach into the 50s on Saturday. The third system of the week looks to roll through Friday night through Sunday. This system would be all rain though thanks to the warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 The latest batch of MVFR ceilings will exit KEVV and KOWB by 07Z. Another area of MVFR ceilings will arrive at KMVN shortly thereafter and it will likely linger through the morning. At least occasional MVFR ceilings will develop over the rest of the area in the morning and linger through around 21Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 329 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-101200- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 329 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 /429 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday We are monitoring two storm systems of interest next week. The first one is Monday night into Tuesday, the second Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is some potential for wintry precipitation with both weather systems, mainly near and north of the Ohio River. Confidence is higher in seeing a mix of rain and wet snow with the first system. However, it is unclear exactly where temperatures will fall below freezing and for how long. Confidence in whether or not there will be any impacts to travel remains low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of agricultural bottomland occurred near Newburgh.
Minor flooding of bottomland occurred near Mt Vernon.
Moderate flooding of bottomland and surrounding low-lying areas occurred near Shawneetown. Several county roads also flooded. The Ohio River at Shawneetown crested at 44.7 feet which is above the moderate flood stage of 43 feet.
Following torrential mid-month rainfall amounts of around half a foot, river levels surged to only a couple feet below major flood, resulting in widespread flooding of low-lying bottomlands, affecting farmlands, roads, and woodland areas. The Green River at Paradise crested at 397.8 feet which is just shy of the major flood level of 400 feet. River levels remained in minor flood as flooding continued into March.
Minor flooding of bottomland occurred around J.T. Myers Lock and Dam.
River levels rose into flood following a rainy couple weeks in the Green River basin, with a major rainfall event of nearly half a foot of rain on the 15th leading water levels to surge at Calhoun to major flood. Nearly the entire town of Rumsey sustained some amount of water intrusion. Lower Calhoun flooded as well, along with many thousands of acres in the Island and Jewel City areas. Many homes and businesses along the river had flooding issues develop. River levels remained in moderate flood as flooding continued into March.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1233263, 1233264, 1233266, 1230205, 1233265, 1230209.