Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 23, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are small to medium chances for thunderstorms (30-50%)
  through Thursday night.

- After a brief cooldown, very hot weather will arrive by
  Sunday and persist through Monday and possibly Tuesday.

- Chances for t-storms and cooler weather are likely by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A weak upper level disturbance is approaching the high plains
this afternoon. A cumulus field was developing across the
southern high plains. Convection was also developing near a
surface convergence line across eastern Colorado and along a
front in western Nebraska. There is a chance that t-storms will
develop in the warm sector from Dodge City to Liberal this
evening with additional heating. Additional storms forming to
the north and west may not make it this far south. But if these
storms hold together then the western counties and areas along
I-70 stand the best chance of rain later tonight. The storms
are not expected to be severe given the lack of shear and weak
instability (low CAPE density).

The location of surface boundaries will determine where storms
form Thursday. There may be an effective surface boundary over
the southern tier of counties (depending on how storms evolve
tonight) so that the best chance of afternoon storms could be
from Pratt and Medicine Lodge to Liberal. If the southern
boundary is not well-defined, then there would be better
chances for storms across the remainder of southwest Kansas.
Additional storms forming across the western high plains may
venture into western Kansas late Thursday evening and night.

Another weak upper level disturbance in the southern stream will
approach the central high plains by Saturday. A few t-storms
could develop across far western Kansas during the afternoon.
As long as mid level westerly flow is present across Kansas
during summer, and low level moisture is present, thunderstorms
can't be ruled out. Again, given the weak vertical shear, high-
end severe is unlikely. But the shear profile may be just strong
enough by Saturday evening to allow for marginally severe storms
with damaging winds and marginally severe hail.

The upper level ridging that the various model ensembles have
been showing for weeks will finally happen by Sunday and
Monday. With the center of the upper level ridge centered over
southwestern Kansas, thunderstorm chances will be slim to none
and temperatures could meet or exceed 100. However, the
locations and amounts of rain between now and then may affect
which locations hit 100. When soil moisture is high, it is much
more difficult to reach 100+ temperatures. However, whether
temperatures reach 100 or not is a mute point when it comes to
heat indices across central Kansas. Often when temperatures get
really hot we dry out and when it is more humid the temperatures
struggle to reach 100. But either way we can expect heat
indices between 98 and 108 for Sunday and Monday, with the
highest indices to the east across central Kansas where it is
climatologically more moist. As usual, lower heat indices can be
expected in the drier air across extreme western Kansas.

A large upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of
states and amplify across the Great Lakes by mid next week.
This will shove a cold front into Kansas, along with increased
moisture. On the high plains, we usually moisten up behind cold
fronts in mid summer and rain chances (especially nocturnal
storm clusters moving eastward from elevated terrain) go up as
long as the fronts don't push too far south. Thus, t-storms
chances will increase by Wednesday, along with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A weak upper level disturbance and approaching cold front will
lead to chances for thunderstorms beginning this evening.
Winds will be breezy from the south today and then decreasing
to 10 kts or less this evening ahead of the front. Wind
direction and speed will be highly variable tonight into
Thursday due to outflow from thunderstorms and uncertainty in
exact frontal location. Expect 20-30 kt winds in vicinity of
stronger storms. But given the high cloud bases, CIGS and
visibilities should remain IFR except during any brief periods
of heavier rain.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
225 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 /125 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms may form this afternoon. These storms are
not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Excessive heat risk returns this weekend into at least the early
part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
419 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

KSZ087-088-232145-
Meade KS-Clark KS-
419 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MEADE AND CLARK
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Englewood, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Englewood around 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9991 3701 10014 3739 10004 3738 9956
      3700 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 204DEG 15KT 3700 10003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

KSZ080-088-089-232215-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
444 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Ashland, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Kiowa,
northwestern Comanche and Clark Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9998 3747 9992 3747 9938 3701 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 195DEG 30KT 3717 9978

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JJOHNSON