In the evening of the 27th, scattered storms formed across northwestern Kansas. These storms were generally slow moving, high precipitation storms with a couple stronger embedded storms that produced one inch hail and 60 MPH winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
In the evening of the 27th, scattered storms formed across northwestern Kansas. These storms were generally slow moving, high precipitation storms with a couple stronger embedded storms that produced one inch hail and 60 MPH winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 4:24 PM MST, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 524 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms that develop along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon will track east toward the Kansas border late this aft-eve. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with the strongest storms, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties between 6-10 PM MDT. - Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of northwest KS this evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms. Minor/ nuisance flooding possible. - Below normal temperatures and rain chances continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Through Tonight: Westerly flow aloft is present over the region this afternoon.. on the eastern periphery of a deamplifying ridge progressing slowly east across the High Plains.. and southwestern fringe of a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. In the lower levels (surface to 850 mb).. the Tri-State area was situated on the eastern periphery of a broad lee cyclone (extending eastward from central-southern CO into west-southwest KS), where modest southerly flow was present.. mainly over eastern portions of the Goodland county warning area (per surface observations and KGLD velocity data). As of 19Z, pervasive stratus has lifted/ scattered over southwestern portions of the area (mainly south and west of Goodland).. where temperatures were rising through the 70's. Meanwhile, east and north of Goodland.. low overcast (and a shallow cool/stable airmass) persists. Challenging convective forecast. High-res guidance continues to suggest that diurnal convection emanating from the Colorado Front Range will progress downstream into eastern CO during the late afternoon (~00-02 UTC) and far western KS during the early evening (02-04 UTC), though.. a fair amount of model-to-model and run-to-run variability persists with regard to convective coverage. While moderate instability (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) will be present over portions of eastern CO by 00 UTC.. weak forcing, modest (~6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates, marginal effective deep layer shear (~20-30 KT) and weak DCAPE suggest a rather limited severe weather potential. Guidance indicates that convection will also develop over portions of northwest KS this evening.. when and where strengthening low-level southerly flow/warm advection (on the E and N periphery of the southeastward-advancing lee cyclone) will aid in the development of elevated convection, the focus of which may lie along/near the I-70 corridor -- on the cool side of a shallow, stable airmass (near the southern periphery of persistent low overcast) -- where somewhat more favorable deep layer shear (and focused forcing) could support transient supercellular organization and some potential for hail, though.. the presence of abundant updrafts /interference/ may be a mitigating factor. For reference, right-mover motion this evening should be from ~350 deg @ ~15 KT. Thu-Thu night: With little overall change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today, though.. environmental conditions are apt to be influenced by evening-overnight convection.. creating a fair amount of uncertainty with regard to forecast specifics. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Fri-Sun: Long range guidance suggests that the ridge will further deamplify and migrate eastward over the central CONUS through the upcoming weekend.. as an upper level trough / complex upper level low in the eastern Pacific gradually progresses eastward ashore the Pacific Coast. Deamplification/weakening of the ridge and the presence of a subtropical jet over Baja CA, the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners on Fri.. and subsequent development of a more progressive, unidirectional flow pattern Sat-Sun.. may preclude substantial changes in sensible weather conditions compared to previous days, depending on upstream convective development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and nature/extent/evolution of downstream propagation into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Mon-Wed: Long range guidance suggests a return to WNW-NW flow aloft, on the eastern periphery of a modestly amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies and southwest fringe of a complex upper trough / broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS.. similar to this week's pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Currently around 00Z, KGLD is at VFR conditions, with KMCK hovering around VFR/MVFR as stratus clouds (associated with a weak lee cyclone located in southeast CO) continue over the area. As the evening progresses, by ~03Z, showers and thunderstorms will potentially impact the terminals (primarily KGLD) until ~07Z. With the higher confidence in these occurring at KGLD, just went with a PROB30 group for KMCK to account for the lower potential. Ceilings and visibilities will continue to deteriorate, with both terminals expected to drop down into MVFR to IFR status and even LIFR status at times before improving back to VFR around 18Z-19Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Melto
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 1236 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281845- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 1236 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 /136 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... Thunderstorms that develop along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon will track east toward the Kansas border late this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with the strongest storms, mainly in eastern Colorado and adjacent Kansas border counties between 6 PM and 10 PM MDT. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop over portions of northwest Kansas this evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with any storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is presently not anticipated. Vincent
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:18 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Still hailing at the time of the report. Hail was to the size of quarters along with winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph and heavy rain.
Dime to quarter size hail along with estimated 45-60 mph winds.
Estimated 45 to 60 mph winds with hail of dime to quarters.
Four inches of water covering all of South Range Avenue at the Thomas County Fairgrounds in Colby. Precipitation estimates in the area range from 1.1 to 2.4 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1286472, 1286473, 1286474, 1286485.