A surface trough over northeast Florida combined with sea breezes over a moist, unstable airmass produced locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong to pulse severe storms with wet downburst winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface trough over northeast Florida combined with sea breezes over a moist, unstable airmass produced locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong to pulse severe storms with wet downburst winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 8:38 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 938 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Few widely scattered showers and T'storms are fading along highway 301 over northeast florida this evening, mostly focused over Marion county along the Ocklawaha river between Ocala and Ocala National Forest where localized 1-2 inch rainfall amounts have fallen. For later this evening, have been monitoring model trends for the development of a weak low across the waters after midnight. While 18Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF indicated this weak low developing over the NE FL waters placing scattered to numerous coastal showers onto our coast late tonight, the trends from the HRRR have been shifting the placement of heavier showers and the low itself further eastward away from the coast with the bulk of heavier showers over the offshore waters. Have maintained scattered shower chances over night along the beaches and isolated chances to along the I-95 corridor, but thus far the confidence in very low for heavier rainfall amounts exceeding 2 inches from convergent rain showers working onshore, but up to 1-2 inches are possible from some showers managing to move onshore overnight into the predawn hours of Thursday that could lead to ponding of water on coastal community roadways. Otherwise, Lows will be in the upper 60s across inland SE GA and the low 70s along the SE GA coast into inland NE FL with mid/upper 70s along the NE FL coast. Thursday, onshore NE flow will push the Atlantic seabreeze well inland during the afternoon with greatest showers and T'storm coverage across NE FL FL where higher moisture will be along with greater cloud cover compared to SE GA as the front to the south crawls northward into north central FL by the afternoon. Mainly locally heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the expected hazards, but an isolated T'storm may produce wind gusts to 40-50 mph. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s over inland NE FL. && .NEAR TERM...through Tonight... Per the latest analysis, surface high pressure is currently building eastward across the Ohio River valley, positioning it to the north of the area and setting up a northeasterly flow locally. A very tight moisture gradient also resides across southern GA into northern FL where precipitable water values increase from one inch to nearly 2 inches along the Atlantic coast. Deeper moisture over the coastal waters will be advected inland by the northeast flow and by the Atlantic sea breeze. Convergence along the moisture gradient and sea breeze will focus chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms along the First Coast from Camden county south to Flagler county this afternoon. Expect inland progression with isolated showers and storms pushing toward the I-75 corridor toward sunset but coverage should dwindle due to the lingering drier air there. This evening a weak circulation will attempt to organize along the interface of the sea breeze remnants and a stalled frontal zone that will slowly lift northward tonight as steering flow veers southerly. Lift aloft and lingering instability should result in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development late this evening which may persist well into the overnight hours. The confidence is low on precise location, there will be potential for banding showers along coastal areas which may lead to flooding issues during the overnight hours, especially at the NE FL beaches. Among the hiRes guidance, the latest HREF run is depicting around 30% probability of 3" and 50-70% probability of 1" between midnight and sunrise. A reasonable worst case would be isolated pockets up to 4" of rain during the predawn hours, which could occur anywhere from Flagler Beach north to Kingsland GA. Given the lack of rainfall yesterday and the limited nature of the convection today, the current thinking is to hold off on any local Flash Flood Watches. Otherwise, temps will build to the low 90s inland this afternoon and stay in the upper 80s closer to the coast. With shallow moisture being pushed farther inland by the sea breeze this afternoon the overnight lows won't be as cool as this morning but a few areas in the interior of SE GA may dip into the upper 60s again tonight. Elsewhere, lows will span the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Frontal boundary across Central Florida will start to nudge northward tonight and Thursday, but especially on Friday and Friday Night which will set up a much more unsettled weekend. As this process takes place, deeper moisture will start to fill into most of the area Thursday and especially Friday, and combined with several pieces of weak shortwave energy rotating around the base of an upper trough just north of the region will increase chances/coverage of convection through the rest of the work week. The first shortwave impulse Thursday and Thursday Night may induce a weak low to form offshore southeast GA on before quickly pulling away to the northeast. This low is not expected to have any tropical-like characteristics, though could help to induce some coastal showers as well as additional lift/convergence for diurnal convection, as well as some coastal/offshore showers into Thursday Night. A more robust impulse swings southeastward across Alabama/Mississippi on Friday and pivots eastward across south GA through Saturday Morning. Depending on the exact timing of this feature, it could interact with the usual diurnal sea breeze and frontal zone to enhance shower/t'storm activity further on Friday, especially across southeast GA. Early forecast soundings suggest 500mb temps around -7 to -8C and some weak shear as high as 20-25 knots, and therefore this will have to be monitored over the next 24-36 hours reference stronger storm potential, if all of the ingredients come together. The front and shortwave may once again continue chances for some showers and isolated t'storms overnight Friday Night, especially closer the coast. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be expected inland Thursday, closer to the mid 80s closer to the coast with northeasterly flow. After lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday Morning, max temps will be a bit lower Friday with more cloud cover and convective coverage: mainly in the mid to upper 80s area-wide with similar lows Saturday Morning as compared to Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Active weather will continue through at least the weekend thanks to the same frontal boundary remaining nearly stalled across the area, wobbling slightly north and south through the weekend as high pressure stays situated to the north/northeast. Periods of showers and t'storms, enhanced diurnally, will be expected through the weekend, which also could open up a higher potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding thanks to the "waves" of showers and thunderstorms. The WEather Prediction Center (WPC) does place the area under a marginal risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall, which may change over the coming days pending the exact position of the frontal zone. Long range guidance starts to diverge a bit for the start of the next work week, though early indications are generally for a downward trend in PoPs as the base of the upper trough sinks further into the southeast states and tries to pull in some drier air from the north/northwest. As of now, looks as though northeast FL will have the highest coverage for PoPs early next week as the frontal boundary sinks further south and a ridge of high pressure tries to build in from the north. Temperatures trend near to slightly below normal during this more active period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 The 00Z TAF period will start with a few widely scattered T'storms over northeast florida nearing the vicinity of GNV and VQQ through 02Z with northeasterly winds 5-10 knots. The northeast winds will subside inland to variable under 5 knots while staying 5-10 knots at the coast overnight. A weak low should develop just offshore of the northeast Florida coast late tonight with more organized coastal showers potentially coming onshore at SGJ and even CRG after 06Z while MVFR low stratus possible inland at GNV and VQQ from 09Z to 14Z. Thursday, the cold front will work a little northward into north central FL with onshore northeasterly flow 5-10 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast. More cloud cover expected south of SSI into the northeast florida TAF sites, but should remain VFR from late morning into early afternoon as cloud bases rise from 2.5 kft to 3.5-4.0 kft. By 17Z, seabreeze on the Atlantic side will work inland from SSI and SGJ and push well inland with showers and isolated T'storm activity as it works inland and encounters strong heating. Have PROB30 groups for the northeast florida sites for MVFR visibility restrictions in stronger T'storms as higher moisture will be nearer to the front slowly working northward from central FL, timing 18-22Z near the coast and 20-24Z inland at GNV as the seabreeze progress further inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 89 68 85 / 0 20 10 30 SSI 76 86 76 85 / 20 30 10 40 JAX 73 89 73 88 / 20 50 10 60 SGJ 75 89 74 87 / 40 60 30 60 GNV 73 91 72 89 / 10 60 10 50 OCF 73 91 72 89 / 10 60 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
FLZ140-240-280215-
Central Marion FL-Eastern Marion FL-
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTY
THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...
At 928 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fort McCoy to near Lake Weir. Movement was
south at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lynne, The Village of Briar Meadow, Ocklawaha, Silver Springs Shores,
Lake Weir, Belleview, Summerfield, and Burbank.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2928 8185 2896 8195 2896 8212 2935 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 352DEG 8KT 2929 8196 2902 8206
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ENYEDIPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
949 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0947 PM Rain 1 NNW Belleview 29.07N 82.06W
08/27/2025 M2.77 Inch Marion FL Public
A public rain gage SE 105th Place measured
2.77 inches of rainfall in 1 hour. Other
nearby observations indicated 2.4 to 2.6
inches in the past hour.
&&
ABEPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
954 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0952 PM Rain 2 WSW Belleview 29.05N 82.08W
08/27/2025 M2.70 Inch Marion FL Public
A public rain gage along SE 120th Street
measured 2.70 inches since about 9 pm.
&&
ABEThe Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:02 UTC.
7 heavy rain, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Flagler County Assist related a public report of 2 inches of rainfall in the Daytona North area, which is about 10 miles west of Bunnell. This was entered as storm total rainfall.
Multiple trees and power lines were blown down near Karen Lane and FL 19 southwest of Palatka. The time of damage was based on radar.
Putnam County Sheriff reported trees and powerlines were blown down along Silverlake Drive. The time of damage was based on radar.
A public weather station in Pomona Park near Sunny Lane and East Main Street measured 2.2 inches of rainfall between 8:09 pm and 9:22 pm.
A public weather station along Lake Street just north of Carolyn Street measured 2.33 inches in the past hour.
A private weather station in Crescent City recorded 2.21 inches of rainfall from around 8:30 pm to 10:30 pm.
A public weather station near the intersection of Buffalo Bluff Road and South US Highway 17 measured 2.15 inches in the past hour.
A private weather station near Palm Coast recorded 3.26 inches of rainfall from around 10 PM through around 11:45 pm.
A private weather station in Palm Coast recorded 2.35 inches of rainfall in one hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1286255, 1286246, 1286247, 1286250, 1286252, 1286256, 1286253, 1286258, 1286257.