Hail and Damaging Winds in Iowa, March 14, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
356 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms this evening with damaging winds the
  main concern

- Fire weather is critical through early evening with strong
  winds and relatively low humidities.

- Much cooler and windy on Saturday with scattered light rain
  and snow, mainly north.

- Warmer into early next week with increasing potential for an
  impactful spring storm by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Strong upper system is currently moving across the central Plains
with deep surface low passing from Kansas into south central
Nebraska.  South winds have been robust this afternoon with gusts
topping out from 40 to 45 mph so far.  Fire weather concerns are
maxing out right now and will remain critical over the next several
hours until either storms move overhead or the winds begin to
subside and relative humidity values rise by mid evening.  Similar
thoughts with the wind advisory as overall winds begin to diminish
by mid to late evening with the approach of the surface low.

Focus otherwise is on the convection south of Iowa as it moves
northward into the state this afternoon.  Dewpoint depressions are
large at 20 to 40 degrees across the forecast area with relative
humidity values of 25 to 35 percent.  As expected, soundings are
inverted-V which is very indicative of a high wind potential with
some hail potential and a very limited tornado threat. Storms have
been moving northward at 50kts+ this afternoon so it won't take much
of a gust associated with the storms to produce damaging winds at
the surface.  The storms are expected to translate quickly across
the state during the late afternoon/early evening hours are pass
north and east of the area by 02-03Z.  Currently, on the immediate
backside of the convection, gradient winds are gusting over 50kts
with blowing dust into southeast Kansas.  This may edge into
southern Iowa this evening although it will be racing sunset and a
decrease in mixing which would limit the winds.  If needed, a short
duration High Wind Warning may be issued should the threat move into
the south. That being said, some of the dust from the southwest may
still make it across the forecast area and some lower visibilities
(~5 to 6 miles).

Heading into tonight, the upper low passes from south to north over
central Iowa. Models have produced some very light rain underneath
the upper low late tonight as it passes across the area. Otherwise,
a deformation precipitation shield develops across northwest Iowa,
northeast Nebraska and northward near the Dakota/Minnesota border.
As cold advection intensifies, some transition to snow is expected
late tonight although the bulk of accumulations remain west and
northwest of the forecast area.  However, strong west to northwest
winds develop by Saturday morning and sweep across the state with
the strong cold advection.  A Wind Advisory has been issued in the
far northwest where gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected along with
sustained winds to 30 mph.  Scattered light rain and snow showers
are expected in the north during the morning but slowly dissipate by
afternoon as the system pulls away.

Quiet conditions are then expected into Sunday and early next as
upper ridging passes into the central United States.  Highs climb
back towards 70 by Monday and Tuesday as warm advection increases
ahead of the next system.  This upper low passes from the southwest
United States and into the vicinity of Iowa by Wednesday.  At this
time, strong forcing is expected to produce widespread precipitation
across the state on Wednesday with rain and snow both possible.
There remains plenty of time to get into specifics of this system in
subsequent shifts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Intense spring storm will produce scattered thunderstorms across
all of central Iowa later this afternoon into the evening. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are likely in and around the
thunderstorms with the potential for wind gusts of 50kts+ in
vicinity of stronger storms. This activity pushes north of Iowa
this evening with lighter surface winds overnight along with
mostly VFR conditions. However, a cold front passes through
towards daybreak with MVFR ceilings spreading across the area
along with increasing west to northwest winds.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ004-005-
015-023.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ006-007-
016-017-025>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-071>075-081>086-
092>097.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ038-039-049-
050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

IAZ038-039-049-050-060>062-072>075-081>086-092>097-151100-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern,
central, and eastern Iowa

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

South to southeast winds are expected to gust from 35 to 50 mph
this afternoon. These winds will also combine with warm
temperatures, lower humidities, and dry vegetation to result in
critical fire weather conditions. A Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning are both in effect. Please refer to the National
Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further
details.

An Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place
for this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging winds will be
the primary threat due to fast moving storms, with gusts in
excess of 70 mph possible, but large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036-037-047-048-059-071-151100-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-
Hamilton-Hardin-Boone-Story-Dallas-Adair-
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
northern Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

South to southeast winds are expected to gust from 35 to 45 mph
this afternoon. These winds will also combine with warm
temperatures, lower humidities, and dry vegetation to result in
critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

A Slight to Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for
this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat due to fast moving storms, with gusts in excess of
70 mph possible, but large hail and a few tornadoes are possible
as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044>046-057-058-070-151100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-
548 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
northwest Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for
this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat due to fast moving storms, with gusts in excess of
70 mph possible, but large hail and a few tornadoes are possible
as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Far northwest Iowa may also see light snow with blowing snow
Saturday resulting in hazardous travel conditions at times.
Gusty winds are expected Saturday too with a few gusts over 45
mph possible.

Accumulating snow is also likely over northwest Iowa around
Wednesday with gusty winds potentially producing blowing and
drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

Small