As a surface low pressure system moved into Missouri, a warm front lifted into northern portions of the Quad State region. Ahead of the front, a SW to NE band of showers and thunderstorms developed, pushing eastward through mid-morning.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
As a surface low pressure system moved into Missouri, a warm front lifted into northern portions of the Quad State region. Ahead of the front, a SW to NE band of showers and thunderstorms developed, pushing eastward through mid-morning. Brief heavy rain resulted in a couple inches of water ponding on one of the Lloyd Expressway exits. Precipitable water values were 1.3in and 925-850mb moisture transport was quite strong.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 18, 5:40 AM CST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms can be expected today into this evening, and a few strong to severe storms are possible. - Numerous showers and chances of thunderstorms return late Wednesday night through Friday night. - Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with a return of seasonable conditions over the weekend into Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Surface low pressure will move through Missouri today, lifting a warm front into northern portions of the PAH forecast area. Along the warm front and ahead of the low, we will see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across our region through the morning hours, with the greatest coverage in our northern counties. As the low continues moving east, it will drag a weak cold front through the area, increasing coverage this afternoon, with the highest chances still across our northern counties. Showers and storms will end from west to east late this afternoon through the evening. Dry conditions will return late tonight and continue through Wednesday evening. There continues to be some potential for hail, small to possibly low end severe, with stronger storms through this morning. The severe potential increases late this afternoon just ahead of the surface low and accompanying cold front with steepening lapse rates and better instability. The main concern with the late day storms continues to be hail, but isolated tornadoes will be possible as we see increasing low level moisture just ahead of the cold front along with veering low level winds. A weak upper level ridge will give us dry conditions late tonight into Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday, models show a strong surface low over Texas lifting the today's frontal boundary back north into our area as a warm front. With the warm front and the slow approach of the surface low through Friday, showers and thunderstorms will return for the end of the work week. Chances will quickly increase from southwest to northeast late Wednesday night, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across our entire region Thursday through Friday evening. By late Friday night, scattered showers will be tapering off from the west, with most of our area dry by Saturday afternoon. Forecast rainfall amounts today through Saturday are generally in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range, with isolated higher amounts possible. Most of this rainfall will be associated with the late week system, and especially in the Thursday to Thursday night time frame, when brief heavy rainfall is most likely. Models are showing the potential for another system to affect our region early next week. Chances of showers return potentially on Monday. Temperatures this week will above normal, with the warmest temperatures today ranging from the lower to middle 60s in southwest Indiana to the lower to middle 70s in southeast Missouri. Behind our late week system, temperatures will drop back to within a few degrees of seasonable readings over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Included LLWS until 15z with 2000 foot winds from the southwest at 35-40kts, then surface winds will increase from the south to southwest to around 10kts with gusts to 20 kts by mid to late morning. On and off showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through the TAF period with a warm front lifting through the area today, and a cold front pushing through this evening. Low VFR cigs will become predominantly MVFR by 16z and persist through at least 06z, with few break to VFR possible. MVFR vsbys will accompany SHRA/TSRA. After 06z, IFR cigs are possible at KEVV/KOWB/KMVN, but kept cigs in current TAF at BKN010 for now. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...RST
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 358 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 358 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 /458 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Stronger storms this morning could produce small hail, and isolated severe storms with large hail are possible. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening will pose a greater risk of severe weather. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night through Friday. Strong storms are possible Thursday into early Friday, along with brief heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
734 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0658 AM Hail 3 NW Cape Girardeau 37.33N 89.59W
11/18/2025 M0.75 Inch Cape Girardeau MO Public
Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).
&&
JGGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple inches of water covered part of the eastbound Green River Road exit of the Lloyd Expressway. Portions of the right lanes on the expressway also had puddles form. Rainfall rates peaked at around half an inch in twenty minutes, but the heavy rainfall duration was brief.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, November 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1299537.