A 500mb trough extended from Quebec southwest to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers around midday and pushed slowly eastward through the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low tried to lift northeast through west Kentucky, as surface high pressure built slowly southeast across southern Illinois.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A 500mb trough extended from Quebec southwest to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers around midday and pushed slowly eastward through the afternoon. At the surface, a weak surface low tried to lift northeast through west Kentucky, as surface high pressure built slowly southeast across southern Illinois. The greatest instability was a bit elevated with MUCAPE values of 1000-2000J/kg, which resulted in effective shear of 25-30kts. Numerous thunderstorms developed over southern Illinois in the late morning and moved quickly eastward through the early afternoon. With precipitable water values around 1.25, the main concern with the storms was brief heavy rain. However, one stronger storm produced heavy rainfall sufficient to result in some street flooding in Eldorado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 8, 11:10 AM CST, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1210 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the region today. A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, mainly for west KY, far southern IL, and southeast MO. - Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast Friday through much of the weekend. - Rain chances creep back in late Sunday, but especially Monday into Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures, well into the 80s, are forecast the latter part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 500mb low over southwest Missouri will push east across our FA today. This energy will then get shunted south across the Mid-South Friday through Sunday as drier northerly flow sinks south across the lower Ohio Valley associated with surface high pressure across the Midwest. Elevated instability early this morning may lead to some isolated storms developing. The other concern in the near term is some dense fog trying to sneak north into southeast Missouri, which will need to be monitored for an Advisory. The best forcing for showers and isolated storms through the morning resides across the north half of the area. As the system continues to churn east, more development is likely this afternoon across the rest of the area. 0-6km bulk shear isn't great, but still expected to reach 25-30 kts. MLCAPE up to 1500 j/kg is forecast along with mid level lapse rates of 6.5 C or slightly higher. Thus the environment in place is supportive for somewhat organized clusters of storms capable of producing some large hail and possibly localized damaging wind gusts. The Day 1 outlook from SPC has the south 2/3rds of the region in a Marginal risk. Main timing for strong to severe storms is anytime from Noon until about 7 PM. Shower and storm chances return late Sunday or Sunday night, with highest potential Monday as the upper level energy to our south slides northeast across our FA. Seems to be a good signal for additional chances through Tuesday as well, mainly east of the Mississippi. Thereafter, upper level heights rise with above normal temperatures expected during the latter part of the week. Highs likely will at least be in the mid to upper 80s by Thursday, and could flirt with 90 in a few places. There is some signal present for severe storms during the May 15-18 time period as moisture increases (dewpoints likely well into the 60s, if not above 70). Instability likely will be quite high a few of these days, so just comes down to if we can get upper level energy to provide forcing for storms. CIPs analogs and CSU-MLP both indicate some lower severe probabilities at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Convection will be a factor at most sites through 21z or so. Moving off to the east northeast. Lingering showers with light rain may wrap in as the winds shift to the northwest with high MVFR or VFR conditions. VFR conditions are anticipated by early evening with some ground fog or high MVFR stratus forming up in the late overnight hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...JGG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 311 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-090815- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 311 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 /411 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Patchy dense fog can't be ruled out early this morning across southern portions of southeast Missouri and into the Jackson Purchase area of west Kentucky. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast today. A few strong to severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Additional thunderstorm chances return next Monday and Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service PADUCAH KY 1147 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088>090-092>094-KYZ001>009-MOZ076-086- 087-110>112-114-082000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-Jackson-Williamson- Saline-Union-Johnson-Pope-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Fulton-Hickman- Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway- Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi- New Madrid- Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, McLeansboro, Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Harrisburg, Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Cairo, Mound City, Metropolis, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston, and New Madrid 1147 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 ...Cold Air Funnels Possible... There have been a few reports of cold air funnels in southeast Missouri. These cold air funnels are developing underneath scattered showers and thunderstorms that are moving across the area. Underneath these showers, spinning columns of air that look like tornadoes may continue to develop. These funnels usually are very brief and rarely touch the ground. If these funnels do touch down, they most likely will not cause damage to life or property. Cold air funnels are due to very cool air aloft, warm moist air near the ground, and are usually in association with a strong area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Due to little or no wind shear, they are usually weak and very brief.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A strong thunderstorm produced torrential rainfall (1-1.5 in 30 minutes) over Eldorado around 1200CST, resulting in street flooding throughout town. Light to moderate rain continued for much of the afternoon, but flood waters were able to recede by 1400CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1259925.