An intense surface low pressure tracked onto the eastern Plains by the afternoon of Friday, March 14. Strong gradient winds produced frequent 40-50 mph gusts out of the south-southeast across central Illinois, with a few gusts as high as 60 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
An intense surface low pressure tracked onto the eastern Plains by the afternoon of Friday, March 14. Strong gradient winds produced frequent 40-50 mph gusts out of the south-southeast across central Illinois, with a few gusts as high as 60 mph. These winds produced scattered wind damage, including several instances of downed power lines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 1:18 PM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 218 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A severe weather outbreak is likely to occur this evening between 8pm and 2am. Structural damage is a reasonable possibility due to straight-line winds (75+ mph); tornadoes (EF-2+); and large hail (1" +). - A brief period of strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts between 40-60 mph may occur just ahead of the severe thunderstorm episode early this evening between 6-9pm. - Concern for rapid and erratic fire spread has led to a burn ban in areas north of Interstate 72 through this evening. Additional concerns for rapid fire spread return early next week. - Another powerhouse storm system arrives by the middle of next week, perhaps bringing additional severe weather to portions of central and southeast Illinois. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 A negatively-tilted, 500-mb trough and it's attendant surface low will continue to lift across the Plains this afternoon, with a Pacific front/dryline arcing towards the Missouri Ozarks and Mid- Mississippi Valley this evening. Convective-allowing models (CAMs) remain in excellent agreement that convective initiation will occur early this afternoon along the dryline as a tongue of 55-60 degF dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates advect into western Missouri and effectively boost MLCAPE. While the initial storm mode will favor supercell structures across Missouri, the expectation is for storms to congeal and grow upscale into a mature QLCS by 00z/7pm due to fast storm motions and the deep-layer shear vectors becoming aligned more parallel to the boundary/forcing as the line approaches west central IL. While the kinematics associated with this line are high-end (99th percentile of climatology), the modest instability (500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) should preclude a derecho threat. Rather than a continuous wall of 75+ mph straight-line winds, we are advertising only pockets. Given the robust shear magnitudes and instability confined to the lowest 3km, as well as a strong, N-S oriented LLJ along the line, we anticipate multiple bowing/surging segments, reflectivity tags, and line breaks; all of which will lead to mesovortexgenesis and the potential for QLCS tornadoes. While it is extremely difficult to predict whether or not these embedded tornadoes will be significant (EF-2+), very high 0-3km SRH values (750+ m2/s2) and a large, humped hodograph suggests any mesovortex that does develop within the line will have depth and long-tracked potential, and this is evident in the 6-hr Updraft Helicity (UD) swaths from many of the CAMs. One recent historical comparison that springs to mind is the December 10, 2021 quasi-linear event, which brought 5 EF-2 tornadoes to portions of central IL. Just prior to this evening's convective episode, gusty non- thunderstorm winds will peak in the 45-60 mph range, primarily between 23z-02z/6-9pm, due to the surface pressure gradient tightening beneath a strengthening 70-kt LLJ core. With a very dry and well-mixed PBL lying ahead of the line of convection, it's a reasonable possibility that we achieve sporadic High Wind Warning criteria (58+ mph). Due to the brevity and uncertainty in coverage, we will continue the current Wind Advisory and upgrade later as needed. Other concerns we hold prior to tonight's storms include blowing dust and erratic fire behavior due to abnormally dry top soil and fine fuels (grass, leaves, twigs, pine needles, etc). We have refrained from issuing a Blowing Dust Advisory after coordinating with our Ag partners. Per their guidance, the vast majority of field work to this point has been anhydrous injections and not tillage, though certainly there has been some plowing. Then regarding the Red Flag Warning, which is ongoing, we still anticipate a brief period where wind gusts exceed RH values in areas north of I-72 later this afternoon. This, in tandem with the 80 deg temps and dry fuels, is what is driving the threat for rapid and erratic fire spread. MJA .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Friday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 A brief shot of cold air will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as northerly winds spill into the region behind the departing storm system. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s beneath mostly cloudy skies, and we might even squeeze out a few snow showers as the axis of wrap-around moisture pushes through the region. Dry and continued cool weather will remain in place on Sunday, with any lingering cloud cover eroding beneath an advancing ridge axis. Monday through Wednesday will be characterized by dry, windy, and warm conditions as an upper ridge gradually becomes more amplified due to another deep trough carving into the Plains. Concern for elevated fire danger will return during this period as a well-mixed PBL helps pull down afternoon RHs (25-35%) amid warming temperatures (65-75 degF) and increasing southerly flow (30-40 mph) ahead of a rapidly deepening frontal system. Blowing dust may also be a concern during this time as we begin to enter spring tillage season. The next best chance (50-70%) for rain comes Wednesday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Instability looks very limited ahead of the front amid shallow moisture, and so widespread thunderstorm activity is not anticipated at this time. It does bear monitoring, though, as both strong deep-layer shear and synoptic ascent could yield isolated severe convection somewhere between the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. The system dry slot will then quickly push through behind the cold front Wednesday evening before the axis of wrap-around moisture works across central Illinois late Wednesday night, perhaps providing some light snow. Another stretch of dry and cool weather returns Thursday and Friday behind the departing frontal system. NBM deterministic guidance currently offers daytime temperatures in upper 40s on Thursday before dropping near 30 degrees Thursday night. Temperatures then modestly increase into the lower 50s by next Friday. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 A line of TSRA will impact the central IL terminals this evening, likely lasting only 1-2 hours at any one location. Brief, sharp visibility reduction and 55+ kt wind gusts are possible as the storms move through. Otherwise, strong gradient winds will dominate the region this TAF cycle. South-southeast winds will gradually veer southwest by Saturday morning. 35-40 kt gusts will be common through the period. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031- 036>038. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 209 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151915- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 209 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to race across the area tonight between 8 pm and 2 am. The primary threat is damaging winds, potentially in excess of 80 mph, though large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible. Outside the storms, strong winds will occur tonight. Southeast wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely. These winds will cause any outdoor fires to spread rapidly. Also, blowing dust is possible in some areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong winds are forecast again on Saturday. Southwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely from mid morning to mid afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed from 8 pm tonight to 2 am Saturday. Expected storm motion is to the northeast around 60 mph. 25
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
219 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 WNW Towanda 40.58N 88.95W
03/14/2025 M47 MPH McLean IL Mesonet
Mesonet station FW2710 Towanda.
1205 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Toluca 41.00N 89.07W
03/14/2025 M47 MPH Marshall IL Mesonet
Mesonet station DVI03891 Toluca.
1116 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Decatur Airport 39.83N 88.87W
03/14/2025 M44 MPH Macon IL ASOS
ASOS station KDEC Decatur Arpt.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0154 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Capital Airport 39.85N 89.68W
03/14/2025 M46 MPH Sangamon IL ASOS
ASOS station KSPI Spfld Capital AP.
0245 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Decatur Airport 39.83N 88.87W
03/14/2025 M45 MPH Macon IL ASOS
ASOS station KDEC Decatur Arpt.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
339 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Logan County Airport 40.16N 89.33W
03/14/2025 M44 MPH Logan IL AWOS
AWOS station KAAA Logan County Arpt.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
407 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0336 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Capital Airport 39.85N 89.68W
03/14/2025 M53 MPH Sangamon IL ASOS
ASOS station KSPI Spfld Capital AP.
0345 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Toluca 41.00N 89.07W
03/14/2025 M49 MPH Marshall IL Mesonet
Mesonet station DVI03891 Toluca.
0304 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Peoria Intl Airpo 40.67N 89.68W
03/14/2025 M47 MPH Peoria IL ASOS
ASOS station KPIA Peoria Intl Arpt.
0333 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Coles County Airport 39.47N 88.27W
03/14/2025 M46 MPH Coles IL ASOS
ASOS station KMTO Coles Co. Mem AP.
0303 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Central Illinois Airpor 40.48N 88.91W
03/14/2025 M44 MPH McLean IL AWOS
AWOS station KBMI Bloomington Arpt.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 59 mph gust was measured at the Capital Airport in Springfield (KSPI) at 1552 LST. Roof damage was also reported in Springfield.
Powerlines were downed by high winds in both Pekin and Washington.
Powerlines were downed by high winds in Stanford.
A power pole was snapped due to high winds, resulting in a road closure.
High winds resulted in a tree leaning onto power lines.
A park pavilion collapsed due to high winds. A power pole was also snapped.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1240182, 1240185, 1240187, 1240190, 1240191, 1240192.