Strong non-thunderstorm winds on either side of a system of thunderstorms brought localized damage to the area on the 14th and stretching into the 15th. A wind advisory was in effect on the 14th and a high wind warning was in effect during the morning of the 15th advertising gusts as high as 60 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOT wrote it up.
Strong non-thunderstorm winds on either side of a system of thunderstorms brought localized damage to the area on the 14th and stretching into the 15th. A wind advisory was in effect on the 14th and a high wind warning was in effect during the morning of the 15th advertising gusts as high as 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 12:05 PM CST, 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
105 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
A powerful spring cyclone will impact the area this afternoon
into Saturday and bring with it:
- Very windy and unseasonably warm this afternoon into tonight,
wind gusts to 45-55 mph expected.
- Near critical threat of grass/brush fire spread this afternoon
and evening.
- Fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with a
threat for severe thunderstorms.
- Very strong, possibly damaging, winds Saturday morning through
early afternoon with gusts over 50 mph likely.
- Elevated threat of grass/brush fire spread Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The main forecast changes this morning are as follows:
- Upgraded the remaining Fire Weather Watch for Lake IL, Cook,
and our northwest Indiana counties to a Red Flag Warning.
- Extended the end time of the Red Flag Warning to midnight CDT
areawide.
- In the text of the Wind Advisory update, increased wind gust
magnitudes to up to 55 mph this evening (with sporadic gusts
to 60 mph possible).
Dew points had already been running a bit below forecast trends
this morning. With this in mind, adjusted dew points a bit
downward through the afternoon and early evening, closer to the
RAP/HRRR guidance. Winds have begun their expected steady
increase as of this writing, with temperatures quickly climbing
into the mid to upper 60s.
Full sun and the very mild start will enable afternoon
temperatures away from the IL shore to soar into (near daily
record) upper 70s to around 80F/low 80s. With this, very dry
fuels, wind gusts into the 35 to 45 mph range, and minimum
relative humidity bottoming out at 30-35% due to the adjusted
dew points, went ahead and upgraded the remaining Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning as noted. Local fire weather
partners have shut down any prescribed burn operations until
Sunday given the strong winds also expected on Saturday.
From an assessment of most recent model forecast soundings,
concern has increased for near 60 mph non-convective gusts this
evening 1 to 2 hours prior to the arrival of the anticipated
squall line. An exceptionally strong 60-70 kt low level jet
around 850 mb will result in 50+ kt flow extending down to
around 1kft AGL. The winds and unseasonably warm and dry
conditions will help offset typical diurnal decoupling and
promote mixing into this channel of high momentum aloft. For
now, opted to beef up the wording in the Wind Advisory text as
noted, but there may be consideration for a short fused High
Wind Warning. A decision will likely also be made on Saturday's
High Wind Watch with the full forecast package this afternoon.
Finally, not to give the severe threat tonight short shrift,
there are no big changes in forecast thinking. There should be a
tongue of 50s dew points immediately preceding the squall line,
to yield a sliver of limited instability. Conceptually and 12z
CAM presentation wise, the convective cores in the fast moving
QLCS should generally be on the wane at or shortly after arrival
in our western CWA. That said, the exceptionally strong winds
aloft, fast forward speed of the line, and deeper than usual
nighttime mixing presents a threat for a decent coverage of wind
gusts to around 70 mph. SPC thus opted to expand the level 3 of
5 (Enhanced Risk) threat level for damaging winds to include
most of the area (level 4 of 5/Moderate in the far southwest
CWA). It's unclear to what extent true surface based convection
will persist with the squall line, but sufficient low-level CAPE
may materialize in tandem with extreme low level shear to yield
a brief QLCS tornado threat as well.
Castro
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Conditions For Today:
Early this morning, we find a stationary frontal boundary draped
across central IL. A reservoir of upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE
resides near and north of the front according to latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Moist, southerly isentropic ascent atop the front
has managed to stir up a batch cumulus clouds that's since moved
over the area. But, just out to our west near Davenport, one
lone elevated cell found a way to go up and produce maybe a
couple of dozen lightning strikes and briefly heavy rain. Given
the drier ambient environment and general lack of forcing, we're
not expecting much in the way of rain or storms this morning in
our area, but a few isolated showers/storms could conceivably
fall on our northwest CWA up until around daybreak.
This front will work its way northward through the morning.
Quick moisture advection behind the front beneath a steep
near-surface inversion may result in some fog developing
along/near the IL lakeshore during the morning. No models
explicitly resolve any really low visibilities, but forecast
soundings suggest that some lower visibilities near the lake are
possible. Any fog should dissipate by the afternoon as
temperatures pull away from dewpoints.
Today should be abnormally warm thanks to sunny skies and
persistent warm advection. 925mb temps look to push 20C which,
especially on a day like today, should favor highs in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees. Winds out of the southeast will keep
the Lake (IL) and northern Cook County shores several degrees
cooler than inland areas. For details on the windy conditions
today, see the separately-labeled section of the short term
discussion below.
Thunderstorms This Evening and Tonight:
The focus for this forecast is an expected line of strong to
severe thunderstorms slated for this evening and tonight.
Regional water vapor imagery this morning showcases a high-
amplitude upper trough with base moving over the Four Corners
region. As the trough ejects from the Rockies, the system will
see rapid lee cyclogenesis with the help of a strengthening
500mb jet max around the base of the trough which will obtain
around 120 kt of flow by this afternoon. A dry airmass following
the low out of the Desert Southwest will clash with a northward
flux of Gulf moisture causing a dry-line feature to set up
along the Mississippi Valley later today. As the aforementioned
jet max swings around to the leeward side of the trough and
interacts with this dryline feature, rapid convective
development is expected across KS, MO, and IA. Initial storm
mode looks to be discrete/semi-discrete cells before a strong
meridional kinematic field quickly transitions mode to linear
convection. This QLCS will then move across northern IL and
northwestern IN during the latter part of evening and stretching
into the early overnight hours of tonight.
Out ahead of this storm, between 1,000 and 1,500 Joules of
MUCAPE are expected to overspread the area in the warm
advection wing during the afternoon today. Luckily, this number
is expected to wane significantly by the time storms move in
closer to mid-late evening. Some models were previously
resolving some scattered convection out ahead of the line
earlier in the evening, which would have had access to the
better instability. However, models have really backed off on
this signal and now it looks as though this one discrete line
will be the whole show. It's unclear how much instability we'll
hang onto by the time the storm's arrive, but models generally
resolve less than 1,000 Joules of MUCAPE coincident with the
storms. The NAM, in typical NAM fashion, maintains closer to
1,200 J/kg. A huge majority of that instability will be housed
above the lowest few hundred millibars. Most models resolve
little to no 0-3 km CAPE and just about all agree that there
will be some MLCIN in the 0-3 km layer. The RAP and HRRR are the
most aggressive with low level CAPE and resolve a very narrow
corridor along the QLCS with more-than- sufficient instability
for a QLCS tornado threat. This low level instability will play
a pivotal role in evolution of the overall severe threat, but
especially the QLCS tornado potential. There is also a worry
that long, curved low level hodographs and impressive dynamic
forcing could promote further lift/stretching and compensate for
a lack of low level instability.
The QLCS is expected to be on a general weakening trend as it
moves across our area and encounters a more marginal
environment with eastward extent. All hazards will be possible,
but damaging winds are the biggest concern for tonight with such
strong flow right off the deck (70 kt at 850mb and 55kt at
925mb) that shouldn't be difficult to drag down to the surface
in this line of storms. A QLCS tornado potential exists
seemingly area-wide, although the much better chances appear to
be across our south and west where the storm should have more
low level instability and somewhat better shear to work with.
Steep mid level lapse rates with several hundred Joules of
MUCAPE will also promote a severe hail threat, although
significant hail does not look likely.
The storms will move away to the east overnight. Despite being a
rather short-lived event over any given area, models generally
paint between half an inch and three quarters of an inch of QPF
around the CWA with localized swaths closer to one inch. In
addition to the severe hazards mentioned, brief periods of heavy
or torrential rainfall are likely given the deep layer moisture
and forcing. Flooding does not look overly concerning, but some
localized ponding or pooling will be possible following any
heavier rain cores.
Strong Non-Thunderstorm Winds Later Today Through Saturday:
Little has changed with the wind forecast through Saturday.
As a result, we did not make any changes to the going wind
headlines for later today through this evening. However, we did
opt to include the remainder of our southeastern counties across
east central IL into northwestern IN in the High Wind Watch for
Saturday.
A rapidly tightening pressure gradient amidst a deeply mixed
boundary layer will foster increasingly gusty (40-45 mph) south-
southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening. Southerly winds
will remain strong and gusty through the evening, and may actually
end up peaking in intensity in excess of 50 mph during the mid to
late evening hours in response to an intensifying low-level jet
overhead (increasing to 50-60 kt around 1,500 ft AGL). We should
then see the advisory level winds tail off overnight following the
passage of a line of severe convection.
This lull in the winds will be short lived, however, as south-
southwest winds are slatted to quickly ramp-up again across the
area around (or shortly after) daybreak Saturday morning as the
systems dry slot punches northeastward into the area. Signs
continue to point towards the possibility of a period of damaging
winds, which could top 60 mph, particularly from mid morning
through early afternoon (roughly 9 am to 2 pm Saturday). A High
Wind Watch remains in effect for this potential, with the addition
of my southeastern counties to this watch. Winds speeds are
expected to gradually ease into Saturday evening.
Doom/KJB
Sunday through Thursday...
Forecast thinking during this period has not changed, please
reference the previous discussion below for more on this.
Conditions will be substantially colder and blustery on Sunday
as the synoptic cold front associated with the Friday/Saturday
storm system sweeps through the area. There is a potential for
some lingering precipitation (mostly snow) Sunday morning
towards midday as a sharp mid-level trough axis pushes overhead.
There's plenty of variability regarding the amount of moisture
availability, so for now haven't made any changes from the NBM-
delivered slight chance PoPs. Any light snow doesn't look overly
impactful with temperatures expected to rise through the 30s
through the morning. Blustery W/NW winds will occur through the
day, with some gusts to around 30 mph appearing likely. While
temperatures will be notably colder, very dry air is slated to
arrive, and this may end up dropping RH values under 30 percent
at times during the afternoon. Fine fuels will likely still be
recovering from Friday night - Saturday's precipitation, so it's
unclear what impact this will have on any fire weather
potential, but will continue to monitor this for a potential
slightly elevated fire danger.
A warming trend will commence on Monday and Tuesday as deep
south to southwesterly flow re-establishes itself across the
region as another sprawling area of low pressure begins to take
shape across the central plains. Depending on how warm things
get on Monday, this potentially could be another elevated fire
weather day with moisture transport still lagging and gusty
southerly winds expected to develop with increasing mixing.
For Tuesday night and beyond, models and ensemble guidance have
consistently been showing significant lee cyclogenesis taking
place to our west as another intense/positively-tilted trough
axis swings through the Great Basin and across the Continental
Divide. While there's still a fair deal of spread in the
associated surface low tracks, the signal for a robust storm
system in the region during the Tuesday night-Thursday timeframe
continues to grow. Showers and thunderstorms, followed by a
potential changeover to a little snow on the backside appear
possible.
Carlaw/KJB
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Key Messages:
- Strong south-southeasterly to south-southwesterly winds
expected through much of the TAF period, with gusts of 40 kts
or greater likely late this evening into the early overnight
hours and again after sunrise tomorrow morning.
- A line of thunderstorms will move across the terminals between
about 04Z and 08Z and may feature stronger wind gusts near or
in excess of 50 kts.
A deep low pressure system tracking from the central Plains
through the Upper Midwest will bring notable weather impacts to
the area today and tomorrow, primarily in the form of strong
winds.
Southerly to south-southeasterly winds gusting to near or in
excess of 30 kts this afternoon may experience a relative lull
early this evening before likely becoming even stronger (closer
to 40 kts) around mid-evening just ahead of an incoming line of
thunderstorms. With low-level wind fields as strong as they are,
this line of storms will likely bring even stronger winds down
to ground level within it, and some TAF sites may end up
observing gusts near or in excess of 50 kts as the storms roll
through from west to east during the late evening/early
overnight hours. The storms should last no more than 1-2 hours
at any one location and will likely feature sharply reduced
visibilities -- likely IFR visibilities or lower in the heavier
downpours.
Behind the line of storms, another lull in the wind gusts may be
observed, but another bout of strong wind gusts will resume
after sunrise tomorrow morning. South to south-southwesterly gusts
near or in excess of 40 kts will then be possible through at
least the early afternoon, though a period of stronger gusts
closer to 50 kts is likely to be observed during the early-mid
morning hours.
Should also note that 55-60 kt flow aloft will get below 2000 ft
AGL at times tonight into tomorrow morning. If the expected
gustiness subsides more than expected, then low-level wind shear
criteria may be met. The current thinking is that gusts will
remain persistent and elevated enough to preclude the need for a
LLWS mention in the TAFs, but that may need to be re-evaluated
in forthcoming TAF issuances.
Ogorek
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A powerful area of low pressure will move from the central
Plains this morning to near or over western Lake Superior on
Saturday. South-southeasterly winds will become increasingly
strong this afternoon and especially during the even. We're
expecting a period of gale force (35-40 kt) winds through the
pre-dawn hours of Saturday, perhaps followed by a brief lull.
After daybreak Saturday, even stronger winds from the south-
southwest are likely, with a distinct potential for 50 kt storm
force speeds/gusts through the morning. For the impending
periods of very strong winds, an unseasonably warm air mass will
likely confine the strongest winds to the first few/couple
miles of the Illinois and far northwest Indiana nearshore. A
Gale Warning remains in effect from 4 PM Friday to 9 AM
Saturday and a Storm Watch also remains in effect from 9 AM to
3 PM Saturday.
Castro/KJB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
for all of interior northern IL. A Fire Weather Watch remains
in effect for the Lake and Cook counties in northeast IL and for
northwestern IN. Both are in effect from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT today.
High temperatures this afternoon will climb to near 80F,
particularly away from Lake Michigan. The very dry fuels,
unseasonable warmth, and strong winds (gusting 40-50 mph later
this afternoon and evening) will lead to an high fire danger.
In spite of minimum relative humidity (RH) values possibly
remaining above the 25% criteria in much of the area, the
extenuating factors (very strong winds, summer-like temps, and
very dry fuels) may still enable fires to quickly grow out of
control.
Strong southerly winds will continue through Friday evening out
ahead of a fast moving line of severe thunderstorms that will
cross the area through the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Rain is
expected areawide, though rainfall totals may only reach one
half inch. That said, the rain should moisten fuels going into
Saturday. Particularly if the rain under-performs though, even
stronger south-southwesterly winds gusting up to 50 to 60 mph
and RH in the 40-50% range may dry out some fuels enough to
cause an elevated fire danger again on Saturday.
Castro/KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-
ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032.
Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ003-ILZ004-
ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039.
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-
ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Saturday
for ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ023-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-
ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM CDT /5 PM EDT/ this afternoon to 4 AM
CDT /5 AM EDT/ Saturday for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-
INZ019.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL
and IN nearshore waters.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CDT Saturday for
the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
&&
Visit us at weather.gov/chicagoHazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
427 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-150930-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
427 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /527 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Significant Fire Weather Risk this afternoon.
Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk this afternoon.
Elevated Thunderstorm Risk tonight...with an associated:
Level 4 of 5 Damaging Wind Risk...up to 70 mph.
Level 2 of 5 Tornado Risk.
Level 2 of 5 Large Hail Risk...up to one inch in diameter.
DISCUSSION...
Winds out of the south will gust as high as 45 to 50 mph this
afternoon and evening. The strong winds in conjunction with dry
fuels and low relative humidities will lead to a significant
threat for the spread of brush fires today.
Additionally, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
to move across northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana this
evening into tonight. Damaging straight-line winds are the biggest
concern, although severe hail and even a few tornadoes are also
possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Saturday...
Significant Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Limited Snow Risk.
DISCUSSION...
Strong to potentially damaging southwesterly winds are expected
Saturday morning and afternoon with gusts upwards of 60 mph. The
strong winds may also lead to an elevated risk for fire spread on
Saturday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters will likely be needed this evening.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
Moving toward the east at 40 to 45 mph.
LMZ740>745-150930-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
427 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Gale force winds and or very hazardous waves.
Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
Thunderstorm Waterspout Risk
Level 2 of 5 Thunderstorm Wind Gust Risk...up to 60 kt.
Level 1 of 5 Hail Risk...up to one inch in diameter.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Saturday...
Storm force winds are possible.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Doom
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www.twitter.com/nwschicago
www.youtube.com/nwschicagoThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines were reported down along N Root St in Aurora. KARR was reporting gusts between 35 and 40 mph at the time.
Pieces of siding were removed from a residence in South Elgin. The Schaumburg AWOS was gusting to around 40 mph at the time.
A large part of a tree snapped and landed onto parked cars in the Lincoln Park neighborhood of Chicago. The O'Hare ASOS gusted to 45 mph around the time of the incident.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1237754, 1237756, 1237757.