A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) ahead of a slow-moving cold front tracked eastward out of Iowa across north-central Illinois during the early morning of July 20th. One of the cells produced wind gusts of around 60mph and minor wind damage in Woodford County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) ahead of a slow-moving cold front tracked eastward out of Iowa across north-central Illinois during the early morning of July 20th. One of the cells produced wind gusts of around 60mph and minor wind damage in Woodford County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 20, 1:05 AM CST, 4 hours 24 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 205 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of thunderstorms this morning and especially this evening into tonight will be capable of generating intense rainfall leading to flash flooding. There is a level 3 of 4 (moderate) risk for excessive rainfall for much of central IL, centered near I-72. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. - These storms may also produce severe weather, mainly from damaging winds, though there is a nonzero chance of large hail and tornadoes as well. There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk. - A heat wave will impact the region beginning Tuesday, with the worst conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Both days, there is a 40-60% chance heat indices surpass 110 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ***** HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ***** MRMS regional radar mosaic shows several clusters of thunderstorms scattered across Iowa, Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Missouri at 2am. Though there are considerable differences in specifics of where, when, and how strong this activity will be by the time it reaches us, the 00z CAMs generally suggest these areas of storms will drift towards us throughout the morning. Given the deep moisture in place across the region (PWATs 2-2.3 inches), and strong southwesterly moisture transport feeding into these storms, it seems they'll produce heavy rain, though thankfully the greatest overlap in the 00z CAMs in location of heaviest rainfall is near the I-74 corridor this morning - an area that missed out on much of yesterday's rain. Nonetheless, with individual CAMs spitting out isolated amounts over 2 inches (most of which falling in around an hour) - reflected in the HREF's LPMM - we feel there may be some localized hydrological issues in urbanized areas. In addition, we could see there being some gusty to locally damaging winds accompanying the strongest storms, particularly if a linear segment materializes. SPC has much of the area outlooked in a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk. ***** HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING RISK, TONIGHT ***** Along the remnant ouflow boundary from this morning's storms, strong moisture transport (200-300 gm/kg/s, if you believe the 00z NAM) in an already extremely moist airmass characterized by a deep warm cloud layer of 13-14 kft will foster development of efficient rain- producing storms by late evening-early overnight period. While Corfidi upshear vectors are running ~ 16-23 kt in forecast soundings, which is a little higher than what would be considered conceptually ideal (i.e., <15kt)for slow-stationary storm motions in backbuilding storms, we cannot ignore the signal for pockets of very high precip amounts in the 00z CAMs given the extremely moist environment. Dictated by mesoscale factors not yet apparent in our observations (and forecast very differently by each highres model) uncertainty is high in the location and magnitude of heaviest rainfall and whether it may impact infrastructure. However, each 00z HREF member has pockets of over 4 inches of rain, and a couple members have bullseyes of 8+ inches, in some portion of our CWA south of the I-74 corridor where some locations saw over 3 inches of rainfall yesterday; consequently, WPC has placed the area in a level 3 of 4 (moderate) risk for excessive rainfall and we felt that there's enough potential for significant flooding impacts to pull the trigger on a Flood Watch for our entire area. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and remember to never attempt driving through a flooded roadway. ***** HUMID, INCREASINGLY HOT TOWARD MIDWEEK ***** An upper level ridge will slowly shift into the region towards the middle of the work week, with heat indices increasing Tuesday and peaking Wednesday into at least Thursday. While guidance shows more and more of a signal for at least slight (20%) chances for diurnally driven convection, subsidence under the ridge's influence should be sufficient to delay convective initiation (and limit general coverage) long enough each day that temperatures have the opportunity to warm into at least the low 90s, with ET from well- watered crops surging dewpoints into the 78-82 degree range. This will result in heat indices in the 105-115 degree range. As heat is the number 1 weather cause of death in the U.S., we'd like to continue encouraging folks to plan any outdoor activities outside the hottest portion of the day (11am-7pm), and even consider canceling them/moving them indoors. For those who do end up outside in the heat, stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade (or better yet, AC), and remain vigilant for any signs of heat illness in yourself and others. Model spread remains vast and hence uncertainty high in the duration of this heat, though promising signs of the ridge shifting east or at least weakening slightly as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest do appear this weekend. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a slow moving frontal zone across central IL can be expected through the upcoming 24 hours. The first thunderstorms look to develop near the I-74 corridor in west central IL spreading southeastward through the early morning. The highest thunderstorm chances look to migrate southward late in the forecast period, closer to the I-72 corridor. The first few to several hours will be generally VFR, however any time after that, MVFR or worse conditions will be possible. Winds will be generally light and variable through the period. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-211030- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean- 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms this morning will produce heavy rainfall and may result in localized flash flooding. In addition, there is a low but nonzero risk for severe weather with these storms, mainly from damaging wind gusts. Additional storms this evening may also generate heavy rainfall. Though the axis of heaviest rain this evening into tonight is forecast to be further south, it may not take much to see additional localized flooding where heavy rain has already fallen this morning. Additionally, there is a low risk for severe weather with this evening's storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Oppressive heat will build across the region starting Tuesday afternoon, and will persist through the rest of the work week. Heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 115 degree range on Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ040>057-061-211030- Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard- Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar- Shelby- 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms this morning may generate heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding mainly near and north of a Beardstown to Paris line. In addition, these may produce severe weather, mainly from locally damaging wind gusts. The risk for severe weather and flooding will return with another possible round of storms this evening into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Oppressive heat will build across the region starting Tuesday afternoon, and will persist through the rest of the work week. Heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 115 degree range on Wednesday and Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-211030- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. This evening into tonight, additional rain may fall on areas that already received heavy rainfall yesterday, resulting in localized flooding. In addition, some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Oppressive heat will build across the region starting Tuesday afternoon, and will persist through the rest of the work week. Heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 115 degree range on Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding on the Little Wabash River near Clay City will continue into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. Bumgardner
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
521 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
ILZ027>030-201045-
Marshall-Peoria-Knox-Stark-
521 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...STARK...
NORTHEASTERN KNOX AND NORTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM
CDT...
At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elmore, or near Toulon, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wyoming, Toulon, Princeville, Dunlap, Williamsfield, Altona,
Victoria, La Fayette, Camp Grove, Edelstein, Laura, Elmore,
Castleton, West Jersey, Duncan, Monica, and Lawn Ridge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4100 9020 4113 9018 4111 8953 4079 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 287DEG 18KT 4102 8995
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
37Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
553 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
ILZ028>031-037-201115-
Tazewell-Marshall-Peoria-Woodford-Stark-
553 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN
WOODFORD...SOUTHEASTERN STARK...NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM CDT...
At 553 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chillicothe, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Eureka, Lacon, Metamora, Germantown Hills, Roanoke,
Rome, Toluca, Dunlap, Washburn, Spring Bay, Sparland, Varna,
Edelstein, Camp Grove, Cazenovia, Hopewell, Bay View Gardens, La
Rose, and Mossville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4088 8977 4108 8967 4106 8909 4070 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 285DEG 30KT 4093 8948
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
37Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
ILZ030-031-038-201145-
Marshall-Woodford-McLean-
618 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...EASTERN
WOODFORD AND NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...
At 618 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Benson, or 11 miles northeast of Eureka, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Eureka, El Paso, Minonk, Roanoke, Gridley, Benson, Secor, Kappa, and
Panola.
This includes Interstate 39 between mile markers 8 and 31.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4093 8904 4092 8893 4075 8893 4075 8884
4060 8888 4071 8929 4096 8925 4097 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1118Z 285DEG 30KT 4085 8914
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
37The Lincoln radar (KILX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:26 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree was blown onto a home, causing damage to the roof and siding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1276251.