NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 7:56 AM UTC, 6 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 7:56 AM UTC, 6 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
556 PM ChST Mon Mar 31 2025
.Marianas Synopsis...
Himawari visible satellite shows partly cloudy skies and spotty
showers across the area, mainly over Guam and Rota coastal waters. A
broad, low-level cloud band is seen east of Saipan and Tinian,
leftover from a remnant shear line fragment. Surface observations and
ASCAT show mostly fresh trade winds this afternoon with frequent
strong gusts.
&&
.Discussion...
CIMMS Mimic Precipitable Water (PWAT) imagery shows drier air working
its way west over the CNMI this afternoon with a weak north-south
gradient in moisture across the islands. This lines up with current
satellite imagery showing slightly more showers upstream of Guam and
Rota than Tinian and Saipan, but given the negligible difference and
model trends indicating a bump in showers near Tinian and Saipan
overnight, overall shower coverage was left at isolated (20 percent
chance). Later on, a passing trade-wind trough looks to increase
showers over the Marianas around Wednesday night, starting off a
slightly wetter second half of the week, but this will only be a
temporary break in the mild trade-wind regime dominating the
forecast period. The surge in trade winds near the Marianas will
begin to diminish Tuesday as the subtropical ridge weakens north of
the region, and mostly gentle to moderate trades are expected
Wednesday through the end of the week.
&&
.Marine/Surf...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended based on latest surface
observations, scatterometry data, and model guidance, which
indicate a continuation of fresh to strong trade winds which will
maintain choppy seas hazardous to small craft through tonight.
Nearby buoys and altimetry are showing combined seas of 6 to 8
feet, which are expected to continue through Tuesday night before
falling into the 5 to 7 foot range through midweek. This will also
maintain a high risk of rip currents for east facing reefs until
Tuesday evening, while a moderate rip current risk for north facing
reefs continues. Another pulse of long-period northeast swell will
bring seas back up late in the week, which may reintroduce the high
rip current risk for east reefs. Trade winds will follow a
decreasing trend over the next few days, becoming gentle to moderate
midweek onward.
&&
.Eastern Micronesia...
A series of trade-wind troughs is creating a broad area of fairly
weak low-level convergence within Eastern Micronesia. This is
promoting partly sunny skies with low-end scattered showers across
Pohnpei and Kosrae, and isolated showers in Majuro. This will hold
true through Tuesday night, then the scattered showers push northward
into Majuro from the southern Marshall Islands. Then, on Wednesday,
Kosrae gets a break to dry out. No such break is in store for Pohnpei
though. On Thursday night Kosrae gets back into the soupy showers
until Monday, while Majuro remains in the showery weather until
Sunday, as the showers head westward toward Pohnpei and Kosrae.
Pohnpei Waters will have winds of 15 to 20 knots through Wednesday
night, then 10 to 15 knots. Seas will start at 5 to 7 feet tonight,
then build to between 7 and 9 feet by Thursday. This could lead to
challenging marine conditions, but should fall a bit short of
hazardous.
Kosrae Waters will see winds of 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts
of 25 knots tonight, then 10 to 15 knots Tuesday through Saturday, or
the rest of the forecast period. Seas will start at 5 to 7 feet
tonight, then build to between 6 and 8 feet Thursday. This could
present challenging marine conditions tonight, but again they should
fall a bit short of being hazardous.
Majuro Waters will receive 15 to 20 knot winds through Thursday with
occasional gusts to 25 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds
will diminish to between 10 and 15 knots for Friday and Saturday,
although occasional gusts to 25 knots will still be possible. Seas
will start at 4 to 6 feet tonight, then build to between 6 and 8
feet by Thursday. This will present challenging conditions for small
craft, but they again should fall a bit short of being hazardous.
&&
.Western Micronesia...
There is still weak diffluence over the main islands of Palau and Yap
as flow redirects to convergence along the equator and up to 5N, and
to a broad trough northwest of Yap Proper. Satellite shows mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies over the islands and relatively quiet
weather is expected through Wednesday, then a weak disturbance in a
developing Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) where the area of
convergence would shift northward towards Palau, but be mainly south
of Yap. This is expected to bring increasing showers to Palau late
week and over the weekend, although periods of scattered showers are
still expected for Yap. Scattered showers will continue at Chuuk the
next few days, with showers further increasing with the possibility
of thunderstorms starting Tuesday night, as the aforementioned
pattern allows a convergence zone to set up across central Micronesia
as well.
Combined seas are expected to remain 5 to 7 feet near Palau and Yap
and 6 to 8 feet near Chuuk. A pulse of long-period northeast swell
late this week may slightly add to seas near Chuuk, but will mainly
contribute to an increase in surf heights along north and east
facing reefs. At this time, this is not expected to reach hazardous
levels of 12 feet for east-facing reefs, but may approach the
threshold of 9 feet for north-facing reefs of Chuuk.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GUZ001.
MP...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for MPZ001>003.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM ChST Tuesday for PMZ151>154.
&&
Marianas: DeCou
East Micronesia: Stanko
West Micronesia: Cruz