A strong upper trough approached the region with an accompanying cold front on March 31st. Preceding the front, the forecast environment featured moderate instability and strengthening wind shear.
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The episode as NWS CAE wrote it up.
A strong upper trough approached the region with an accompanying cold front on March 31st. Preceding the front, the forecast environment featured moderate instability and strengthening wind shear. Some bowing segments within a broken line of convection in the afternoon produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Columbia, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 1:14 PM EST, 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Columbia SC 214 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A line of thunderstorms will move across the Southeast today with severe storms possible this afternoon. Well above normal temperatures expected for late week with possible record highs late week and next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for the CSRA and portions of central SC. Damaging winds are the primary threat but a few storms may produce a tornado and large hail. Update: Skies clearing over the CSRA and Midlands. This will allow the air mass to destabilize ahead of a line of thunderstorms which will move into the forecast area this afternoon. The largest threat still appears to be areas of damaging winds along the line of thunderstorms. That said, conditions remain sufficient to have a few stronger storms embedded within the line which potentially produce a tornado or large hail. Previous Discussion: An upper level trough continues to shift eastward across the middle of the country which will push a cold front through the area by tonight. Ahead of the front today, continued southerly low level flow around the western Atlantic surface high will provide continued warm and moist advection over the forecast area leading to air mass destabilization through the day. Morning stratus may delay or impact the initial destabilization but guidance suggests MLCAPE values will exceed 1000 J/kg during peak heating with modest but sufficient effective wind shear around 30-40 knots which should support the threat of severe weather. Latest HRRR runs consistently showing this initial convective line diminishing as it moves east of the mountains but leaving a residual outflow boundary somewhere across the northern Midlands. This could become a focus for enhanced helicity and a increased tornado threat when afternoon convection moves into the region. Hi-res guidance is in reasonable agreement developing convection across the Gulf Coast states after 12z which then tracks eastward through the day encountering an increasingly unstable high theta-e environment resulting in a line of strong convection moving through our area mid to late afternoon (18z-01z) with possible isolated discrete cells developing ahead of the line. Hi-res guidance also showing some updraft helicity tracks moving across the Midlands and CSRA with a more recent enhancement of them across the northern Midlands (likely associated with the forecast outflow boundary) which is a change from previous forecast thinking that the tornado threat would primarily be confined to the CSRA and southeast Midlands. So while there does not appear to be a significant tornado threat, with a more likely storm mode being cold pool dominated linear multicellular segments, the tornado threat does exist across the entire forecast area. As mentioned, damaging wind gusts are the primary threat of severe weather given the fairly unidirectional wind profile but large hail cannot be ruled out either. PWAT values continue to be high (over 200% of normal) and will support heavy rain potential but storm motion should be high enough to limit flash flood threat. Temperatures today should warm again well into the 70s with some lower 80s possible in the eastern Midlands, depending on how quickly the lower stratus can burn off. After the convection pushes east of the forecast area this evening lingering cloud cover will limit radiational cooling and expect some return of stratus due to abundant low level moisture in place until the cold front pushes through. Cold advection should commence behind the front late tonight and overnight lows expected to fall into the 50s ranging from the lower 50s west to upper 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Cooler and dry Tuesday with the beginning of a warming trend. Tuesday will be the coolest day this week and likely the driest as PWATs drop to around 0.5" behind the departing cold front. Highs will generally be in the 70s for most places with dewpoints falling back into the 40's or perhaps upper 50s across the southern forecast area. Broad offshore high pressure and upper ridging develops into Wednesday, with some moisture returning to the area and daytime temperatures increasing another 5-8 degrees. A few upslope and isentropically forced showers are possible Wednesday, but accums should be fairly light given PWAT values between 1" and 1.25". Overnight lows should be in the 50s Tuesday night and 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - Highly anomalous warmth expected with near record high temperatures possible Thursday through Sunday. The big story in the extended continues to be the potential for near record or record high temperatures. The surface high becomes well established offshore with upper level ridging continuing to build over the area through the upcoming weekend. NBM high temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday through at least Saturday, though the spread by Sunday is a little larger and temperatures may cool off a few degrees. The EC EFI continues to show highs in the 80th-90th+ percentile across the entire area with a few Shift of Tails bullseyes of 1 Thursday through Saturday, and values drop off a bit to generally 80th percentile for Sunday, so there is good model support for these expected temperatures. The uncertainty of temperatures Sunday and Monday is likely due to timing differences for the next front late next weekend, which will also probably bring the next best chance for a good bit of rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated showers and possible storms now entering near AGS/DNL and moving toward the east with MVFR ceilings still seen at all sites except at AGS/DNL where it has been bouncing between VFR and MVFR. MVFR ceilings remain with scattered to broken clouds between 1,800 and 2,500 ft or so with near 10 kt southwest winds continuing. The main line of strong to severe thunderstorms is fast approaching eastern GA with isolated showers moving into AGS/DNL at this time, continuing east. Some of these will maintain the possibility of developing into thunderstorms as instability increases ahead of the main line. This activity should be entering near CUB/CAE by 19z or so and some of this may reach near OGB a little later. The timing for the main line of storms is on track with it currently looking to enter AGS/DNL by 19-20z, CUB/CAE by 20-21z, and OGB by 20-22z. This has a history of bringing strong winds with some gusts over 35 kts and ceiling and visibility restrictions. These conditions may last for a couple hours as the main line passes. Behind the line, some isolated showers may linger into the evening but the main impact behind this line of storms continues to be another stratus deck that looks to build back in after 6-8z with light and variable winds, but some guidance has not been as aggressive with how low the deck gets before being pushed out by the front and thus currently have MVFR ceilings and visibilities through around daybreak. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Early morning low clouds continue to be possible Wednesday and Thursday morning with abundant moisture but no precipitation is expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. &&
The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 120 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:07 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
McDuffie County dispatch reported trees down on Cobbham Road.
Public report of power lines down in the Crystal Creek subdivision in Martinez.
Richmond County dispatch reported power lines down at Skyview Road and Gordon Highway. Time estimated by radar.
Burke County dispatch reported a tree down at Porter Carswell Road and Drake Road. Time estimated by radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1237505, 1237506, 1237508, 1237513.