Flood and Heavy Rain in Florida, September 7, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
805 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast mostly on track as approaching frontal boundary from the
NW will interact with lingering trough and deeper moisture across
the local area. Best chances still appear across NE FL as more
sunny breaks expected this morning will lead to shower and storm
development by the early afternoon, while lingering clouds this
morning across SE GA will delay the start of convection there
until the mid-late afternoon hours. A few strong storms are
expected with gusty winds of 40-60 mph possible, but the slower
storm motion and deeper moisture with PWATs close to 2 inches will
continue the main threat from storm activity as locally heavy
rainfall, mainly across NE FL. Max temps should still reach into
the lower 90s inland, with upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast and
with dew point temps in the mid/upper 70s, peak heat indices
should reach into the 100-105F range once again this afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

An elongated frontal boundary will extend down the southeastern US
coast, and across SE GA Today. This boundary will push south into
central FL Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north northwest.

Moisture will pool to the south of this boundary, leading to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across NE FL Today. Convective
activity will be more scattered over SE GA Today. While,
precipitation coverage will decrease tonight due to loss of
diurnal heating, the frontal zone will result in lingering
activity.

Temperatures will trend near to a little above seasonal averages
this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

The frontal zone will largely remain south of the region this
period. Models are depicting the inverted trough associated with
this boundary lifting north across area waters Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This feature will result in an enhanced flow due
to increased pressure gradient between the high and the trough.

Due to the proximity of the frontal zone, the greatest chance for
convection this period will be across NE FL.

As cooler air advects south into area behind the front,
temperatures will trend below normal this period, especially
during the daytime hours.

It is a little too early to determine just how strong the winds will
become this period, but a wind advisory may become necessary,
especially along the SE GA coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Inverted trough will remain located over the coastal waters, as
front sinks a little further south. The trough will move further
away to the southeast Thursday, as front moves even further south,
and high pressure builds to the north.

High pressure will remain to the north late in the week, as the
inverted trough builds back north into area waters. Once again the
gradient between the high and trough will result in enhanced flow
along the coast.

Precipitation chances will be greatest over NE FL this period due to
location of the trough. But, in general chances will be near
seasonal levels or less.

Temperatures will continue below normal this period, especially
during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Only GNV terminal has lowered to MVFR CIGS with IFR CIGS chances
still possible there as well as VQQ/JAX through 13Z. Otherwise
with diurnal heating this morning expect MVFR CIGS to develop
area-wide in the 1500-2500 ft range from 13-15Z. Increasing
moisture pooling ahead of an incoming cold front will spread
thunderstorm chances northward with potential for TSRA at all TAF
sites this afternoon beginning around 18z with potentially SHRA as
early as 16z. With the stalled front in place, winds will be
light (at or below 10 knots) and driven by the Atlantic sea breeze
this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will bring
strengthening northeast winds through the morning hours on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A frontal zone will sink south across the area through Tonight. The
front will remain to the south through the week. An inverted trough
will be located over the western Atlantic with high pressure to the
north for much of the week. The gradient between these two features
will be tightest early in the week, then again late in the week.
Elevated winds will be the result for Monday into Tuesday, then
again Friday into Saturday.

Rip currents: Moderate Today, High Monday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A surge of winds down the east coast is expected Monday into
Tuesday. This is expected to bring the potential for coastal
flooding along the coast, and along the St Johns and its tributaries
around times of high tides. It is too early for coastal flood
advisories, but these are expected to become necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  69  84  67 /  40  40  30  20
SSI  87  74  82  72 /  50  40  60  60
JAX  91  73  85  72 /  50  30  70  60
SGJ  89  75  85  74 /  60  40  80  70
GNV  91  72  87  71 /  70  40  80  40
OCF  91  72  86  73 /  70  60  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&