A stationary boundary north of the area and passing mid-level shortwave trough combined with the afternoon sea breeze to produce strong thunderstorms on September 5, 2025.
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The episode as NWS MFL wrote it up.
A stationary boundary north of the area and passing mid-level shortwave trough combined with the afternoon sea breeze to produce strong thunderstorms on September 5, 2025.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Miami, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 5, 12:08 PM EST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 108 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1117 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 No major changes to the forecast from the previous shift. After a fairly quiet start to the day over the peninsula, convection is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon, especially across the east coast metro. Latest ACARS soundings show a fairly moist column through 500 mb, and PWAT values ranging from 2.1-2.3 inches. This should promote fairly high rainfall rates again today. Between the weak steering flows and the high rainfall rates, urban flooding will be the primary threat this afternoon into early evening. WPC continues to have the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Today... WV imagery this morning depicts a large eastern CONUS trough with an elongated potential vorticity anomaly draped across the northern Gulf up to the Mid-Atlantic coast. A 05z subjective surface analysis places a broad area of troughing across south Florida, with a stationary boundary draped across central Florida (delineated by primarily a Td gradient). Ensembles are in good agreement that the aforementioned shortwave will amplify a bit more through today before advecting northeast back into the northern stream this weekend. They also agree on very little organization of a surface reflection to the wave, likely due to a combination of the limited depth of the shortwave combined with slightly more stable air over land areas as the wave moves from the Gulf to the Atlantic. So, while there will be some upper-level support for ascent, the surface forcing will remain fairly broad and likely more driven by seabreeze, outflow, and differential heating boundaries. This setup yields a medium to high confidence in numerous showers and storms, but low confidence in timing and placement. The 00z sounding from MFL shows PWATs in the top 10th percentile for this time of year. Further, across the southern half of south Florida mid-level flow is rather unidirectional out of the west, with surface flow backed more out of the south on the southern edge of the broad trough. This would tend to favor a convergent moisture feed with storms lining up and moving from west to east. The anomalous moisture and the background winds could result in pockets of heavy rainfall, especially across Miami-Dade county today. Further north, the broad cyclonic storm may result in less training of storms and more of a north to south movement down the east coast. Between global models, CAMs, and the National Blend, it appears as though common rain amounts across south Florida will be on the order of 1-2" where it rains, with values of 2-4" being a little more scattered in nature and confined to the heavier storms. The HREF LPMM data indicates that there's a worst case potential for an isolated spot or two to pick up 4-6" in short order and this is supported in more than just one or two of the ensemble members. These more extreme amounts will be most likely across Miami-Dade county today. But again, it's important to note that where these amounts may fall is highly uncertain and some of the HREF members have these hot-spots offshore - just something to be aware of going into the afternoon. Saturday... Not going to rehash the synoptic setup as it's similar to what was laid out above. The main difference is that the upper-level forcing will begin to lift out of the region, though the moisture and broad surface forcing will remain. The greatest rain chances will once again be across the southern half of south Florida along the trailing convergence area behind the very weak surface reflection associated with the departing shortwave. Ensembles all remain in good agreement on the pattern and as far as rain amounts are concerned, they should be similar to today, but possibly an inch or so lower across the board. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 If you like the above, there's plenty more of it in the extended range. Multiple shortwaves are expected to drop into the Southeast through next week and we're forecast to remain in a moist environment south of the perpetual stationary boundary/trough. In short, a continuation of the high probability of rain but low timing/location predictability is expected. Generally though, storms should follow the typical diurnal trend. Pockets of heavy rain remain likely, but the details on amounts won't become clearer until we enter the 36-48 hour window. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Outside of convection, low confidence wind forecast with the sea breeze trying to push light westerly winds to a southeasterly direction for a short time. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 A gentle southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. These winds may occasionally become moderate across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Locally hazardous winds and seas could develop in and around thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 88 77 90 / 70 70 40 80 West Kendall 75 88 77 90 / 70 80 40 80 Opa-Locka 76 89 77 91 / 60 80 40 80 Homestead 75 87 76 89 / 70 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 77 90 / 70 80 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 89 77 91 / 70 80 50 80 Pembroke Pines 76 90 77 92 / 60 80 40 80 West Palm Beach 76 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80 Boca Raton 75 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80 Naples 77 89 79 90 / 70 70 30 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...CMF
The Miami radar (KAMX), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:58 UTC.
1 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several media reports of urban and poor drainage flooding in the Miami area associated with heavy rain this afternoon. Radar estimated 1-3 inches of rain in about an hour.
Broadcast media reported a tree fell on a truck in the vicinity of NE 2nd Ave and NE 27th St in Miami.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1295170, 1295171.