Wildfire in Florida, November 26, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
725 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northerly winds over the eastern Gulf waters will produce hazardous
  boating conditions on Thursday and Friday with a Small Craft
  Advisory likely needed.

- Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Upper level ridging over the Bahamas flattens and shifts
southeastward as deep troughing extending southward through the
Mississippi River Valley traverses eastward. On the surface, broad
high pressure shifts northeast of Bermuda and will continue to
dominate the weather with warm and rain-free conditions for one more
day. Farther to the north and west, an area of low pressure is
located over the Great Lakes region. The associated occluded front
extends to a triple point low over the eastern Great Lakes. The
associated warm front extends eastward over New England, while the
cold front extends southward through the southeast U.S. The trailing
edge of this front will traverse eastward over the next couple of
days bringing a low chance of showers over the Nature Coast and
eastern gulf waters later this evening into early Thursday morning.

By Thursday morning, broad upper troughing encompasses the east
coast as the cold front moves south and east of Florida. A 1037 MB
surface high pressure center moves southeast from central Canada,
builds in behind this front and will help usher in some cooler air
for the latter part of the week. Breezy northerly winds will advect
in this cooler air with daytime highs only reaching the 60's and
70's for most of west central and southwest Florida on Friday and
Saturday. The cool air will settle in on Friday and Saturday
mornings with lows dipping into the mid 30's along the Nature Coast
and mid 40's to low 50's for central and southwest Florida. Breezy
northerly winds will produce wind chill values in the low to mid
30's from Tampa Bay area northward along the Nature Coast on Friday
and Saturday mornings.

By Saturday afternoon, a more zonal upper pattern sets up over
Florida as surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridges
southwest over Florida. This will allow for continued rain-free
conditions and a gradual warm up for the latter part of the weekend
and into the first half of next week. Near average to slightly above
average temps expected Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday evening,
models are developing another cold front over the eastern U.S. and
moving it eastward over Florida on Tuesday bringing the next chance
of rain, but still on the low side around 20-30 percent. Only a
small cool down is expected behind this front with highs staying in
the 70's and 80's for the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions through the period with winds generally below 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the Gulf will keep
southeast through southwest winds around 10 knots or less for today.
A chance of showers will be possible later today into early Thursday
morning in the vicinity of cold front moving across the region. The
cold front will push through by Thursday morning and strong high
pressure builds into the area from the northwest in the wake of this
front. This will produce gusty northerly winds starting early
Thursday morning reaching Small Craft Advisory level by Thursday
afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. Winds will remain
around 15 knots on Sunday and into next week as they shift to the
east-northeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

High pressure ridging across Florida will keep warm and rain-free
conditions over the area through the first half of today. A cold
front moves through later today into early Thursday and will produce
a chance of showers along the Nature Coast, but most of the area
should stay rain-free. Some dry air with low RH values below 35
percent will move into the area in the wake of this front on
Thursday and Friday, but winds are expected to remain below 15 mph,
so no Red Flag Warning should be needed. Moisture rebounds by
Saturday with no other fire weather concern anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  66  76  47 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  85  67  81  51 /   0  10  10   0
GIF  86  64  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  82  66  76  49 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  84  57  73  36 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  81  67  74  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close