Flash Flood in Florida, June 29, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
138 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mid level trough over the SE US states extending southward across
the local area will interact with inland moving sea breeze fronts
and outflow boundaries with merger still expected between the I-95
and US 301 corridors this afternoon, with outflows then triggering
another round of storms across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River
Valley of inland North Florida late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Scattered to numerous storms with locally heavy
rainfall are expected due to the slow movement with storm motion
only in the 5-10 mph range, along with still the chance of
isolated severe storms with downburst winds of 50-60 mph due to
the lingering cooler air aloft and steeper mid level lapse rates.
Convection over inland areas should fade after sunset and likely
end by midnight with showers and lingering storms limited to the
NE Gulf and Big Bend region during the overnight hours, although a
few of these showers could spill over into the I-75 corridor of
inland NE FL towards sunrise once again. Low temps still expected
generally in the lower/middle 70s over inland areas and in the
upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast/beach locations. Patchy inland
fog still possible towards sunrise in locations that receive
rainfall today, but not expected to be significant at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

High pressure will drift further away to the east this period. A
frontal boundary will develop across the southeastern US
Tuesday into Tuesday night. A moist low level flow from the
southwest is expected this period. The Gulf sea breeze will be
dominant this period, with the east coast sea breeze struggling to
get much past I95 corridor. Convective chances will be above average
throughout this period, with potential for a few strong to severe
storms each day. The greatest chance for strong storms will be
eastern counties during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze
interactions.

Due to precipitation and cloud coverage, the temperatures will be a
little below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The surface high will move further away to the east southeast
Wednesday into Thursday, as the frontal boundary moves closer to the
area. Precipitation chances will remain above average, with
temperatures trending near to little below.

The frontal boundary will settle across area Friday and stall. Drier
air will advect into inland SE GA counties on the backside of the
trough, with a gradient of increasing precipitation chances from
northwest to southeast. Temperatures will be seasonal Friday.

Models are hinting at the potential for an area of low pressure to
develop on the remains of the frontal boundary next weekend near the
area. There is a chance that if this low develops it could become
tropical, but it is too early to determine any local tropical
impacts from this potential system. With the expected location of
the frontal zone, the northwest to southeast gradient of increasing
precipitation chances will continue. Temperatures will continue near
seasonal levels over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Westerly flow will continue to kick-off greatest chances of
showers and storms for the NE FL TAF sites and will need to keep
TEMPO groups for at least MVFR CIGS/VSBYS through 00Z time frame,
while only PROB30 group is need for TSRA at SSI, likely later in
the 20-24Z time frame. Some gusty winds to 30 knots will be
possible in most of the activity, with a few stronger gusts
possible along the I-95 corridor. Convection still expected to
fade around sunset (00Z) with some VCSH lingering until 03Z for
all TAF sites, except for GNV where flow off the NE Gulf will
likely keep at least VCSH possible through the overnight hours.
Otherwise some patchy MVFR fog possible at VQQ from 07-11Z.
Another early start to convection expected on Monday and will add
at least VCSH for all TAF sites towards the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Offshore flow continues through Thursday as the Bermuda ridge
stays situated to the south and an unseasonable cool front
approaches from the northwest. Offshore winds will increase to
Caution levels offshore during the evening hours Monday and
Tuesday in response to the approaching boundary. Strong afternoon
thunderstorms are possible over the next several afternoons across
the nearshore waters. Late this week a weak low pressure system
may organize over the region along the leftover boundary. Please
stay tuned to the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks for
any potential tropical low pressure development along this
leftover boundary.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue
through early this week with surf/breakers around 2 feet, as
general southwest flow is expected, along with a weaker daily sea
breeze in the surf zone during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  71  89 /  50  70  40  80
SSI  75  87  75  88 /  30  60  40  60
JAX  72  89  72  90 /  40  80  30  80
SGJ  72  87  72  89 /  40  80  30  70
GNV  69  87  69  88 /  60  90  40  80
OCF  72  84  71  87 /  70  90  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&