NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 21, 5:31 AM CST, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 21, 5:31 AM CST, 5 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
VFR conditions will start the period, but conditions are expected
to deteriorate rapidly between 16Z and 18Z as snow begins to move
into the area. There may be instances of light snow prior to this
timeframe, but confidence is too low to start precip sooner. Snow
may become moderate to heavy at times, which will reduce
visibilities. Additionally, cigs will drop to or below 3000 feet,
with IFR to MVFR conditions expected between 16Z and 00Z. After
00Z, snow will exit the area and clouds will lift, leaving VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will also be
gusty through the day, with gusts up to 25 kts possible. /73
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area today through tonight...
Well... what we've been advertising for the last several days should
begin to unfold within the next 6 to 8 hours, depending on location,
if not earlier. Looking at current radars around the region, light
reflectivity extends as far north as the I-20 corridor in LA and MS.
Upstream obs suggest that this is mainly virga along the northern
edge, though some observations have reported light snow. Further
south, snow was being reported at most locations in southwest LA,
and this trend should continue further east through the predawn
hours. The 06Z LIX sounding shows that dry layer in the lower levels
that we've been talking about, with quite a bit of dry air aloft.
That said, comparing to the 00Z sounding, there's been quite a bit
of saturation between 850 and 700 mb, and the vertical column is all
below freezing.
So, what does that mean for our snow potential here? We are still on
track with a potentially historic snowfall event along the coast.
How far inland this snow occurs is still a little uncertain, but
given that uncertainty and the current conditions to our west, I'm
hesitant to drop any of our snowfall totals along our northern
zones. That said, looking at hires guidance, the 06Z HRRR seems to
have initialized well compared to the 06Z sounding data our
neighbors to the west were able to capture (both LCH and LIX).
However, the gradient of snow to no snow extends along the US-84
corridor and I think that's a bit too south. Model soundings are
warming surface temps above freezing late this morning and
afternoon for areas north of US-84, though wetbulb temps remain
below freezing. Still thinking that due to evaporative cooling as
virga begins to fall, those temps will drop and we'll see more
snow than rain. Still expecting light accumulations north of
US-84, but even that could create hazardous road conditions.
For our areas south of US-84, dewpoints around the area have dropped
into the single digits, which should keep mostly precip free
conditions through the next few hours. This will quickly change as
we head into the mid to late morning hours as the previously
advertised shortwave makes its way into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The vertical column, which is expected to remain flow
freezing, will quickly saturate aloft and as snow falls in the
upper/mid levels, the lower levels will saturate. Thus, we expect
all snow for our area, except along the immediate coast were some
mix precip is possible at the onset. Snowfall totals will range
from 1 to 3 inches, except for our extreme northern zones, where
less than an inch is expected. That's not anything to bat an eye
at though, as any accumulations on surfaces will create slick
conditions. For the southern half of the area, especially south of
the I-10 corridor, a solid 3 inches is possible, with hires
ensembles hinting at the potential for higher amounts. HREF snow
probabilities suggest the most likely (50% chance) snow amounts
of 4 to 5 inches along and south of I-10, with a 10% chance of
exceeding 6 inches in some of these locations. Where the highest
snow totals fall all depend on any banding that occurs, which is
difficult to determine at this point. Regardless, any accumulations
will create moderate to major impacts across our area.
All of the above is to say that we aren't making any changes to our
latest headlines. Although our northern zones may not reach the 2+
inches for winter storm criteria, the potential impacts are enough
to continue the warning there.
Precip will taper off from west to east during the evening hours,
but impacts won't end there. A dome of high pressure, along with the
eastward moving trough will put the area in a deep layer of north-
northwest flow. Skies will clear quickly overnight, with temps
dropping into the teens areawide. This will keep whatever frozen
precip accumulates on area roads in place, with hazardous driving
conditions lingering through much of the day Wednesday. Temperatures
on Wednesday will greatly depend on accumulating snow totals, and
some areas will only briefly rise above freezing. Sheltered/shadowed
areas will likely not rise above freezing until Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows Wednesday night will be in the teens once again, so
lingering water on roadways will refreeze. Single digit wind chills
are expected again tonight, with the Extreme Cold Warning continuing
through late Wednesday morning. /73
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
An upper level trough will move though the area on Friday.
However, with a dry airmass in place, no precip is expected. Upper
level flow becomes southwest this weekend ahead of approaching
upper level trough. This system will bring rain chances back to
the area early next week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in
the 40s and low 50s warming into the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday
into Monday. Low temps Thursday night and Friday night will be in
the low to mid 20s inland to low 30s along the coast before
moderating this weekend into early next week. /13
MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Moderate to strong northerly winds will strengthen today, with gale
conditions anticipated well offshore. The northerly flow gradually
diminishes tonight into Wednesday. Snow and sleet are anticipated
beginning this morning and continuing into the evening hours,
mainly over the near shore waters and bays and sounds. Freezing
spray is possible tonight mainly over bays and sounds. A Small
Craft Advisory is currently in effect for portions of the marine
area through for the 20-60 nm portion from 9 am today to midnight
tonight. /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 32 14 38 19 45 24 50 25 / 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 33 19 37 24 44 28 47 30 / 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 37 24 39 28 46 32 50 33 / 90 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 32 14 40 17 46 20 48 21 / 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 32 12 40 16 47 21 49 20 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 31 12 39 17 44 20 46 20 / 70 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 33 15 38 17 45 21 49 23 / 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ633-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
tonight for GMZ635-636.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ670-675.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for
GMZ670-675.
&&
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