Early morning strong to severe storms formed across NE FL where instability increased from the south and coincided under moderate bulk shear. Wind damage occurred with stronger gusts of 45-65 mph.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Early morning strong to severe storms formed across NE FL where instability increased from the south and coincided under moderate bulk shear. Wind damage occurred with stronger gusts of 45-65 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 18, 3:58 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
...FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
...WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Late afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011
millibars) accelerating northeastward off the southeastern.
Meanwhile, another low pressure center (1007 millibars) was
organizing over the lower Mississippi River Valley, with a
stationary frontal boundary extending east of this feature across
southern AL and the FL/GA border. Otherwise, Arctic high pressure
(1047 millibars) was building southeastward from Canada's
Northwest Territories into the northern Rockies and northern
Plains states, with an Arctic cold front downstream of this
expansive surface ridge extending from the eastern Great Lakes
region southwestward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the
Southern Plains region. Aloft...a shortwave trough was pushing
northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states and New England, with
fast west-southwesterly flow in place across the Deep South. Deep
troughing prevails from the northern Rockies across the Plains
states and the Upper Midwest, with a reinforcing shortwave digging
southward along the spine of the Intermountain West. Showers that
blanketed southeast GA along the stationary frontal boundary
earlier this afternoon have shifted southward along the Interstate
10 corridor and the I-75 corridor from Gainesville northward.
Temperatures and remain in the 50s across southeast GA, while mid
to upper 70s prevail in the warm sector across north central FL.
Dewpoints at 21Z ranged from around 50 across southeast GA and
55-60 for northeast and north central FL.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Low pressure organizing over the Deep South late this afternoon
will pivot northeastward tonight, reaching the western Carolinas
by Sunday morning. A stationary frontal boundary extending along
the FL/GA border will lift northward as a warm front overnight,
with the warm sector nudging into southeast GA during the late
evening and overnight hours. Meanwhile, shortwave energy lifting
northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states and New England will
generate a 140-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (around 35,000
feet) overnight over the Deep South, while a low level
southwesterly jet of 45-55 knots at 850 millibars (around 5,000
feet) will traverse our region after midnight.
Strengthening dynamics should allow for convective development
from overnight through the early morning hours on Sunday, with a
few waves of heavy downpours and possibly a few strong
thunderstorms crossing our area during this time frame. Heavier
downpours should focus across locations south and east of
Waycross, with widespread 1-3 inch totals expected along the I-10
and I-95 corridors, with locally higher amounts possible where
heavier downpours end up training repeatedly over the same
locations. Amounts elsewhere should generally reach the one half
to one inch range. Low level instability will be limited, but ML
CAPE values of 250-500 j/kg developing for locations south of I-10
overnight could result in a few stronger storms, especially for
southern portions of the Suwannee Valley eastward across north
central and portions of northeast FL. Strong wind gusts of 40-50
mph would be the primary threat, along with localized flooding
where heavier downpours train.
Breezy southwesterly winds overnight will warm temperatures to
the upper 50s and lower 60s across inland southeast GA, while warm
air advection keeps temperatures in the 60-65 degree range for
northeast and north central FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Fairly linear showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be
ongoing Sunday Morning over northeast FL ahead of a strengthening
cold front as a dry slot works in behind it into southeast GA.
Although lifting will be plentiful and overall strong wind shear
will be in place out ahead of the front, non diurnal timing of the
frontal passage will limit the amount of available instability out
ahead of the front, as MUCAPE will only top out in the 200-400
J/kg range and mostly elevated. T'storms are expected to be few
and far between, though cannot rule out a marginal chance of a
stronger storm with gusts in the 40-50mph range through the
morning hours, mainly south of about Gainesville to Saint
Augustine.
Rainfall and cloud cover shift south and east of the area
throughout the day as low pressure pulls away to the northeast,
swinging the aforementioned cold front southeastward through
Sunday Night. Brisk west to northwesterly cold air advection will
be strong enough to result in daytime high temperatures likely
being realized during the morning hours for most in the region on
Sunday (mostly in the 60s), then near steady temps into the
afternoon before crashing rather rapidly during the evening and
through Sunday Night. Lows Monday morning range from the mid 20s
over the far interior to low to mid 30s south and east and towards
the coast. The rather rapid temperature drop will result in not
only Freeze Watch conditions for much of the region, but also the
potential for some patchy black ice where some wet roads and
puddles linger from the healthy rainfall.
A dry and cold arctic-like airmass settles in to start the work
week on Monday, with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s
area-wide, and possibly struggling to get above 40 over far
interior southeast GA. A fair amount of high clouds will also be
streaming across the area Monday near the vicinity of an arctic
front just south of the area, which could also help further limit
any significant rise in temperature Monday afternoon. There is a
high chance that most of the area stays dry through Monday Night
given the strong subsidence of the surface ridge, however a few
isolated light showers will be possible over most of northeast FL
early Tuesday Morning, perhaps mixed with a few snowflakes over
the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Although plenty of details are still to be worked out, confidence
is increasing regarding the potential for wintry precipitation for
a large portion of the area to start the long term period,
especially across the interior from about I-10 northward.
Anomalously cold arctic airmass will already be in place Tuesday
as a coastal trough/baroclinic zone starts to form east of the
Florida Peninsula, followed by surface low pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico and energy aloft zipping eastward across Florida Tuesday
Night and into Wednesday. Still a very tricky forecast, especially
regarding Ptype given the complex scenario that will be very
sensitive to any changes, especially to the track of low pressure
across the Gulf, the extent of moisture advection northward, and
pull of cold air southward. However, at this time, looking like
primarily cold rain during the daylight hours area wide, with the
exception of the possibility of some freezing rain and/or snow
mixing it generally north and west of Waycross. Tuesday Night and
into Wednesday Morning, the rain/wintry mix "line" will start to
pull its way south and eastward as cold air advects in at both the
low levels and aloft, expanding the potential for frozen precip
towards the FL I-10 corridor and upper Suwannee River Valley
before starting to come to an end during the day Wednesday.
Probability wise, chances for snowfall accumulation > 1" remains
highest generally from about Waycross north and westward, in the
30-50% range respectfully. This drops off closer to the 10-30%
range approaching FL I-10 and the rest of southeast GA, and less
than 10% south of these areas. Probability of freezing rain
accumulating > 0.1" remains in the 30-40% range for a
larger/broader area of the CWA at this time: This area includes
generally along FL I-10, northwest/west of the Jacksonville I-295
Beltway, west of I-95 in southeast GA, and all of interior
southeast GA. A very similar area also has a low chance for
freezing rain accumulation > 0.25" (generally 10-20%). Details
regarding exact timing and magnitude of each Ptype will continue
to be ironed out over the next 24-48 hours. However, it is
important to note that any snow and ice accumulations can cause
significant impacts to local tress and power lines, as well as
cause very dangerous transportation conditions. It would be
prudent for local interests, especially across SE GA, the Suwannee
River Valley, and near the NE FL Interstate 10 corridor to
consider early winter weather preparations this weekend
including stocking supply kits, consider loss of power and plan
for safe heating alternatives.
Guidance is starting to become more split with respect to the mid
to late week pattern, given both the active pattern aloft and
stalled cold frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula. Most
model guidance advects in enough cool and dry air to keep us dry
but well below normal temp wise on Wednesday, though some guidance
(i.e. GFS) keeps enough moisture and energy aloft in place for
precip chances to continue Wednesday Night and into Thursday
before another reinforcing "shot" of dry/cool air arrives for late
week. Thinking with respect to "first things first" mentality,
keeping at least some chances for rain throughout Wednesday Night
and Thursday, with more wintry precip not out of the question
during this period given the airmass and pattern that will be in
place. Still plenty of time to iron out these details.
Likely goes without saying, but the temperature outlook for the
long term will be below average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Showers will increase in coverage across southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with prevailing MVFR ceilings at
SSI preceded by steadier rainfall and periods of IFR ceilings
possible after 20Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through
around 22Z at the northeast FL terminals, with showers and MVFR
conditions then overspreading the Duval County terminals towards
00Z. MVFR ceilings and vicinity showers are expected after 00Z at
GNV and SGJ. Heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms are then
expected to traverse the regional terminals overnight through the
early morning hours on Sunday, bringing prevailing IFR conditions,
with periods of LIFR ceilings possible during heavier downpours.
PROB30 groups were placed in the TAFs during the predawn and early
morning hours for brief wind gusts of 20-30 knots during potential
thunderstorm activity.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will then move south of the
regional terminals before 16Z Sunday, with IFR to low MVFR
ceilings and a few vicinity showers expected to continue into the
early afternoon hours on Sunday before conditions improve shortly
after the end of this TAF period. Northwesterly surface winds of
10-15 knots at SSI will diminish towards 00Z and will shift to
southeasterly around 5 knots after 00Z. West-southwesterly surface
winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots at the Duval County
terminals will shift to southeasterly and will diminish as
rainfall overspreads the area late this afternoon. Surface winds
will likely shift to southerly towards sunset at GNV and SGJ, with
speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots this evening. Surface winds will
then shift to southwesterly and will strengthen after 06Z at the
regional terminals, with speeds outside of any thunderstorm
activity that develops increasing back to the 10-15 knot range.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Low pressure will pivot across the southeastern states this
evening ahead of an Arctic cold front that will dive into the
southeastern states later tonight. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms will then overspread our local waters tonight, with
a few thunderstorms possibly becoming strong and producing heavy
downpours and gusty winds. Southwesterly winds will strengthen
overnight ahead of the approaching Arctic cold front, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions developing after midnight for the
offshore waters. Winds will then shift to northwesterly on Sunday
afternoon and evening as this boundary crosses our area, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions expanding to the near shore waters
and occasional Gale Force wind gusts possible offshore. Seas of
2-4 feet tonight will prevail near shore through Sunday, building
to 3-5 feet on Sunday night and Monday. Seas of 3-5 feet offshore
tonight will build to 4-6 feet on Sunday and then 5-7 feet by
Sunday night.
High pressure will then build over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
in the wake of this cold front on Monday, with this feature
wedging down the southeastern seaboard by Monday evening as a weak
wave of low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Monday night and
will then shift to northerly on Tuesday night as low pressure
organizes off the northeast Florida coast, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely throughout our local waters on Tuesday
night and Wednesday, along with building seas and potential Gale
conditions. Rainfall will develop on Tuesday, with a wintry mix
of precipitation possible Tuesday night and early Wednesday,
mainly across the Georgia waters. Seas near shore will peak in the
7-10 foot range near shore on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
8-11 foot seas forecast offshore.
Rip Currents: Strengthening offshore winds through Sunday will
keep a low risk in place at area beaches. A lower-end moderate
risk may develop by Monday afternoon at the northeast FL beaches
as winds become northerly.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Daily record low maximum temperatures could be challenged Monday
Jan. 20th through Thursday Jan. 23rd, with highs only in the
upper 30s to low/mid 40s at our designated climate sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 65 25 42 / 80 20 0 0
SSI 57 66 30 44 / 90 50 0 0
JAX 61 69 30 46 / 100 60 10 0
SGJ 64 69 34 48 / 90 90 10 0
GNV 64 68 31 48 / 90 80 10 0
OCF 65 69 35 50 / 80 90 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-
236-322-325-422-425-522.
GA...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
AMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
AMZ472-474.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:16 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 5 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station OLSF1 Olustee measured 12 hr rainfall as of 6:31 am 1/19/2025 of 5.12 inches.
Mesonet station TT672 Suwannee Forestry Center measured 12 hr rainfall as of 1/19/2025 of 4.93 inches.
Mesonet station GW1567 MACCLENNY measured rainfall of 4.83 inches in the past 12 hrs as of 6:30 am 1/19/2025.
Site KFLJACKS3741 has had 4.51 inches of | rain since midnight.
Site KFLGLENS19 reports 5.03 inches since | midnight.
Putnam County Emergency Management reports downed trees, a damaged shed, and damage to a porch along Federal Point Road in East Palatka. The of damage based on radar data.
The public reported wind gusts damaged a mobile home, downed trees, damaged out-buildings and a well head. Time of damage based on radar data.
St. Johns County Fire/Rescue reported a tree downed on a home due to strong wind gusts, along with damage to trees and power lines in the vicinity of Hastings. The time of damage was based on radar data.
Trees were blown down near Northwest 152nd Lane and around 11000 block of Northwest 60th Avenue. The time of damage was based on radar.
A spotter measured a 65 mph wind gust near NW 62nd Ave and NW 53rd Street Rd in Ocala.
Several small trees and large branches were blown down near Belle Terre Pkwy in | Palm Coast. The time of damage was estimated.
A large sign was knocked over and damaged in Flagler Beach. Several wind gusts of between 45 and 52 mph were also measured in the area. The time of damage was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1226143, 1226144, 1226145, 1226146, 1226147, 1226085, 1226091, 1226086, 1226087, 1226088, 1226089, 1226090.