NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 24, 2:14 PM EST, 4 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 24, 2:14 PM EST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
314 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA...
...HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1029 millibars) that has moved off the New England coast, but
continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. A weakening
and stationary frontal boundary was located to the south of this
feature over the Savannah River Valley. Meanwhile, a cold front
was pushing southeastward from the Great Lakes, the Mid-
Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains states. Aloft...ridging
located to the northeast of the Bahamas continues to weaken and
shift eastward, with a zonal flow pattern remaining in place
across the southeastern U.S. A weakening shortwave trough embedded
within this zonal flow pattern was shifting eastward across the
southern Appalachians, while a stronger shortwave was located
upstream from this feature that was approaching the Arklatex
region. Our local pressure gradient is tightening this afternoon
as high pressure wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with
breezy onshore winds keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s
and lower 80s as of 19Z. Multi-layered cloudiness was holding
inland temperatures in the low to mid 80s, where dewpoints were
gradually falling through the low and mid 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Shortwave energy traversing the southern Appalachians will keep
cool mid-level temperatures in place across our area this
afternoon, but deeper moisture values will remain confined to
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where PWAT values will rise
to the 1.5 - 1.6 inch range by sunset. Convection developing for
locations north and west of the Alapaha, Ocmulgee, and Altamaha
Rivers is expected to move slowly eastward late this afternoon.
Outflow boundaries from this convection may have just enough
moisture and instability to allow for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop early this evening for
locations north and west of Waycross. West-northwesterly bulk
shear values will only be around 25 knots, and convection that
manages to develop over inland southeast GA should remain rather
tame, with some slower moving cells potentially producing locally
heavy downpours. Any convection that manages to develop this
evening will dissipate before midnight, with another round of
radiation fog expected to develop at inland locations during the
predawn and early morning hours. Locally dense fog will be
possible due to a subsident air mass over our area, especially
across inland southeast GA. Lows tonight will fall to the lower
60s at most inland locations, ranging to the upper 60s at coastal
locations, where a light onshore breeze will continue overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
High pressure starts to slip further offshore on Friday, which
will also shift the surface ridge further south over the Florida
Peninsula. While this wont have a significant impact on our
weather for Friday, it will slightly weaken the southeasterly
onshore flow across the area, and therefore likely bring slightly
higher daytime high temperatures as compared to Thursday. Similar
to Thursday, a shortwave aloft will pass just north of the region
across northern GA Friday and into Friday Night, which could
spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorms over far interior GA
Friday Evening and into the first part of Friday night as the sea
breeze pushes far inland and leftover activity from earlier in
the day approaches the Altamaha River Basin. Guidance is in pretty
good agreement that slightly more drier air will be mixed in
aloft, which therefore will limit convection chances to only
around 15% or so in these areas. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90
will be common west of about I-95 inland, with low to mid 80s
near the coast. Some mid and high clouds linger Friday Night with
lows mostly in the 60s.
A more well defined cold front starts to drop southward across GA
during the day on Saturday, crossing southeast GA during Saturday
Night and into northeast FL by early Sunday Morning. The front
will push high pressure ridging out of the area, however moisture
out ahead of the front does not look particularly impressive. If
anything, this front will mostly bring with it a wind shift, with
little change in both level temps and moisture. That said, the
front combined with daytime heating and some moisture aloft will
bring with it a low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly over southeast GA. Veering
winds towards the southwest out ahead of the front will also allow
temperatures to rise even warmer than both Thursday and Friday,
as upper 80s to low 90s will be common across most of the area,
except closer to the mid 80s by the immediate coast with a slight
sea breeze influence. Low temps remain mild Saturday Night as the
front continues to move through, despite winds shifting towards
the west to northwest towards Sunday Morning. Lows in the mid to
upper 60s will be common.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Closer to an anafront type of scenario occurs post cold front for
at least the start of the long term period, as higher PWATs fill
into the area for Sunday and linger into Monday, increasing
chances for showers and some thunderstorms across the majority of
the area. High pressure dives southeastward off the Mid Atlantic
coast Monday Night and Tuesday, settling well offshore into the
Atlantic by Wednesday. This will gradually increase the amount of
subsidence and dry air into the region and therefore chances for
convection, especially across eastern portions of the area given
the position/orientation of surface ridging. As mentioned in the
short term discussion above, there will not be a significant
temperature change post frontal passage - especially immediately
behind the front. Above average temperatures Sunday fall closer to
normal for Monday and Tuesday before moderating towards above
normal once again by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Friday. Periods
of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to develop at VQQ and GNV
during the predawn hours on Friday, with MVFR visibilities
possible at CRG and JAX. VFR conditions should then prevail by 14Z
Friday, although brief periods of MVFR ceilings of 2,000 to 3,000
feet will be possible from 14Z through 17Z, but confidence was too
low to indicate these potential lower ceilings at the regional
terminals at this time. Easterly surface winds will increase to
10-15 knots this afternoon, followed by winds shifting to
southeasterly after sunset this evening, with sustained speeds
diminishing towards 03Z at the inland terminals. Surface winds
will remain sustained around 5 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals overnight. Southeasterly winds will then increase to
5-10 knots by 14Z Friday at the inland terminals and around 10
knots at the coastal terminals by 16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
High pressure centered off the New England coast will continue to
extend its axis southwestward across our local waters through
Saturday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the
southeastern states on Saturday afternoon and evening. This front
may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our local waters
from Sunday through Monday. Strong high pressure building over the
Great Lakes states in the wake of this front during the weekend
will shift towards the southeastern seaboard early next week, with
winds shifting to northeasterly and strengthening across our
local waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday as the front
pushes south of our local waters. Onshore winds will result in
gradually building seas on Sunday night and Monday. This high
pressure center will shift offshore on Monday night and Tuesday,
allowing southeasterly winds to gradually diminish.
Rip Currents: A persistent easterly ocean swell will combine with
breezy onshore winds will keep a lower end moderate risk in place
at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend. A high risk is
possible early next week as onshore winds strengthen and surf
becomes increasingly rough.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1154 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible for locations to the west and north of Waycross late this
afternoon through the mid-evening hours. Coverage will become
isolated for locations north and west of Waycross on both Friday
and Saturday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a dry air mass
will drop minimum relative humidity values to the 30-35 percent
range for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor this
afternoon, with values falling to near critical thresholds across
portions of north central FL on Friday afternoon. Breezy easterly
surface and transport winds will progress inland this afternoon,
creating good daytime dispersion values for locations west of the
I-95 corridor, while fair values are expected at coastal
locations. Transport winds will shift to southeasterly on Friday
morning, with southerly transport winds expected across inland
portions of southeast GA during the afternoon hours. Lighter
speeds will generally result in fair daytime dispersion values,
with good values expected across portions of north central FL due
to elevated mixing heights. Transport winds will shift to
southerly on Saturday for locations south of I-10, while
southwesterly transport winds will develop for areas north of
I-10. Elevated mixing heights and gradually increasing transport
speeds will create high daytime dispersion values on Saturday
afternoon across inland southeast GA, while good values are
forecast for the Suwannee Valley and inland northeast FL. Lighter
transport speeds will yield fair daytime dispersion values at
coastal locations as well as north central FL on Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS
THU FRI SAT SUN
JAX 93 (1999) 92 (1958) 92 (2011) 94 (1986)
GNV 94 (1999) 93 (1896) 93 (1908) 96 (2011)
AMG 93 (1999) 91 (1958) 93 (1986) 96 (1986)
CRG 92 (1999) 91 (2006) 91 (1989) 93 (2011)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 87 62 89 / 30 10 10 20
SSI 68 82 68 83 / 10 0 0 10
JAX 63 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 67 83 65 85 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 61 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 61 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&