Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, April 24, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely later tonight and
  possibly into Thursday morning, with damaging wind gusts and
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Daily chances for storms and heavy rain continue after that.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

We updated POPs for tonight into tomorrow morning, leaning
heavily on the HRRR with storm chances delayed to mainly after
midnight out west - especially over southwest Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas. Given weak steering flow and slower storm
movement heavy rainfall is a possibility and there is a marginal
risk of flash flooding. Storms are forecast to consolidate into a
cluster or line shortly after crossing into our CWA, and damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible (especially over western
north Texas).

Storm chances propagate into central Oklahoma during the early
morning to dawn hours. While storm severity remains uncertain by
this time, some gusty winds are possible.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Not sure when we skipped right past spring, but the storm evolution
the past few days has been straight out of June (although admittedly
with more April/May-like temperatures). At the time of writing of
this near-term AFD, widespread storms are ongoing in the Caprock
region of west Texas, fueled by a 30 knot southeasterly LLJ. Near-
term HRRR analysis shows that stable air left behind by last night's
MCS has greatly reduced the risk of storms across much of Oklahoma,
but about 1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE exists across western north Texas and
far southwest Oklahoma. This should allow storms to continue to grow
upscale into an MCS (with powerful cores aloft and hints of an RIJ
already on radar, this seems very likely). The MCS would then push
eastward across the Red River region through the rest of tonight
with a risk for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

If and when this occurs, our Thursday forecast starts to look a lot
like what we just saw on Wednesday: an "instability hole" being
advected upstream from central and northern Texas into our area.
Similarly, most models have an unstable airmass along the dryline
across the Panhandles that should lead to convection initiation by
late afternoon. Once again, we would likely be waiting until well
into the evening before storms arrive in our area with a risk of
damaging winds and large hail.

It's important to note that this entire scenario is just what
appears most likely as of late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning. If the storms come in weaker from west Texas, that could
lead to greater instability and a higher severe risk tomorrow.
Alternatively, ongoing storms currently in western Kansas could make
a run into north central/central Oklahoma early this morning, which
would also make a big difference in the day one forecast. That's the
catch when you get into June-like patterns - careful mesoanalysis
and the ability to adjust your forecast to changing conditions
become necessary skills.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

While predictability in the pattern is typically low on Friday,
there is at least one synoptic-scale feature that will tilt the
scales in the forecast: a cold front. We're almost into May, so
these fronts aren't necessarily guaranteed to fly all the way down
to the Rio Grande. With that said, short-range models like the NAM
and HRRR have about 2,000 J/Kg of MLCAPE along the front as it gets
into northern Oklahoma Friday afternoon. The combination of lift
from the front, instability, deep moisture (boundary-layer mixing
ratios around 12 g/Kg), and deep-layer shear oriented parallel to
the boundary spell a scenario that seems favorable for slow-moving
storms with heavy rainfall across the northern half of the area.

Previous runs of the NAM had shown the boundary continuing to ooze
southward during the day on Saturday, but the most recent run shows
it stalling with moisture spilling westward in advance of the
upcoming trough ejection. Not enough forecast confidence to suggest
what the most likely locations or times of day are, but this pattern
continues to look favorable for one or more rounds of storms across
our area.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

The trough will reach the Great Basin by Sunday afternoon, and most
guidance shows broad southwest flow across the High Plains with a
shortwave ridge centered from Texas to the Missouri Valley. This
pattern might still be a bit too progressive given model biases, but
regardless the story becomes clear. There will be a deep low across
the Central/Northern High Plains with a sharp synoptic dryline
extending south from the dryline, and enough height falls in the
afternoon/evening will impinge on the dryline that at least a few
storms should form across the Plains. Storm coverage doesn't look
all that high, and in fact storms may remain off to our west
entirely on Sunday. But the environment needs to be watched closely
for severe weather.

The trough will eject into the Central Plains on Monday. Once again,
the dryline will extend synoptically southward from a low in the
Central Plains, but this time it will likely bisect our area. There
is some indication that dryline orientation might be more SSW-to-
NNE, which would call into question whether storms would initiate
down here. It might be one of those classic "we might not see any
storms at all, but if we do they will definitely be severe
supercells" kind of days.

The departure of the trough on Tuesday will bring another frontal
boundary toward our area. Definitely don't want to rule out a sneaky
severe risk from this, especially as the STJ kicks up and southwest
flow looks to remain in place. Once again, though, this occurs at
the end of a multiple-day sequence, and forecast clarity is lacking.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected into the evening with LIFR/IFR
conditions and thunderstorms possible from west to east. Timing
and location of storms remains uncertain. However, storms that
have developed in the panhandles could reach western counties
late evening and then consolidating into a line of storms early
Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
initial hazards with mainly damaging wind gusts as the storms
become a line. There remains significant uncertainty on storm
potential on Thursday and will depend on what happens overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  60  76  59 /  60  60  70  60
Hobart OK         78  59  77  57 /  60  40  70  80
Wichita Falls TX  80  61  82  62 /  60  40  70  70
Gage OK           81  53  66  50 /  50  40  40  60
Ponca City OK     74  58  73  54 /  70  70  50  30
Durant OK         77  62  80  65 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...01