Rip Current in Florida, April 20, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
657 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Mesoanalysis, ACARS data from SoFlo airports, as well as the 12z MFL
upper air sounding from earlier this morning indicate the
continued presence of stout mid-level ridging aloft across our
region this afternoon with a strong subsidence remaining in place.
The combination of the subsidence inversion, PWATs of 0.6-0.8
according to RTMA analysis, and a lack of instability will result
in another gorgeous day across the region outside of the
occasional isolated shower along the east coast. A series of
shortwaves propagating along in the subtropical jet-stream
currently oriented in a southwest to northeast configuration over
the central to northeastern United States will gradually erode the
periphery of the ridge and result in slow weakening of this
persistent mid-level feature. At the surface, the status quo
remains as a pressure gradient continues today resulting in breezy
easterly winds and a temperature gradient this afternoon. Highs
will be in the low to middle 80s along the eastern half of South
Florida, and the upper 80s elsewhere with the hottest temperatures
being observed across the western extent of Collier, Glades, and
Hendry counties. Overnight lows will once again dip into the
widespread lower 60s across the western half of the region,
perhaps even a few upper 50s once again across sheltered
locations. Along the east coast, the easterly flow will act to
keep things warmer with min temperatures in the low 70s more
likely near the east coast.

A rinse and repeat pattern on Monday with the caveat that surface
winds decrease as the pressure gradient breaks down. This will allow
for better diurnal heating to occur across the region with
temperatures across inland southwestern Florida potentially reaching
the widespread low 90s during the afternoon hours. Rain chances will
remain minimal once again outside of the occasional sprinkle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The western Atlantic high and mid-level ridging's stronghold of our
weather will continue through most of the week with dry and stable
conditions. Through the mid-week, there will not be a sufficient
moisture levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for
precipitation. Model guidance continues to forecast approximately 50-
70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew points in the low
60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the easterly sea breeze
and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry and
stable through Thursday. However, with the latest model guidance,
confidence has grown with the potential for the return of
precipitation by Friday and into the weekend. The mid-level ridge
begins to break down and surface level high pressure in the Atlantic
high begins to drift to our northeast. With these changes, the sea
breeze will have the potential to bring the return of unsettled
weather and afternoon showers. With the strong easterly winds, and
an increase in moisture seen in the latest ensembles (PWATS ~1.2"),
the potential for rain on Friday and Saturday has risen to
widespread 20-35% PoPs, with isolated thunderstorms focused on the
Gulf coast. With plenty of time for change and more details to
determine as time approaches, we will be grateful for any rain that
us much needed across our entire region with the current drought
conditions.

Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the mid-to-upper 80s
across a majority of the region, with a potential for above normal
low 90s across much of the interior southwestern Florida. Overnight
temperatures will be cool and comfortable, allowing for lows to drop
into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR prevails for the 00Z TAF period. Easterly winds will continue
through the night but will not be gusty like during the day. Gusts
will return by late morning and early afternoon on Monday. At
KAPF, winds will shift out of the southwest Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Advisory level winds are expected to persist across a large portion
of our Gulf and Atlantic waters again today. While these hazardous
marine conditions are forecast to subside by tomorrow, Cautionary
level winds are expected across the Atlantic waters throughout the
week, with slightly calmer conditions over the Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The persistent, elevated easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents in the forecast for Atlantic beaches over the next several
days. This will result in continued life threatening swimming
conditions, especially for inexperienced ocean swimmers.
Surf will remain rough along the east coast, with breakers around 3-
5 feet today, subsiding to around 2-4 ft for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Breezy easterly winds will continue today with lowest relative
humidities (upper 30s to lower 40s) across the western half of south
Florida. While Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met,
caution should be exercised over the coming days. Keep in mind that
county-enacted burn bans remain in place across much of western
south Florida as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  82  72  83 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     68  84  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        71  84  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        71  82  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  80  71  81 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  81  71  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   73  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  82  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       71  83  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           66  86  66  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...Redman