NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 1:42 PM EST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 8, 1:42 PM EST, 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
142 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the region tonight through
Sunday morning. High pressure builds in from the west for the
start of the new week before moving offshore on Tuesday. Another
system passes south of the region late Tuesday through
Wednesday, followed by another system Thursday. High pressure
returns Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of early this afternoon, high pressure is heading east off
the Jersey shore while low pressure is over southwestern Indiana
heading up the Ohio Valley. A secondary low presssure is
starting to develop near Cape Hatteras, and another large high
pressure is sitting over the northern High Plains. As we head
through tonight, the Ohio Valley low will continue heading east-
northeast toward northwestern PA while the coastal system will
head north- northeast towards Long Island. Late tonight, the low
from the Ohio Valley will dissipate over northern PA while the
coastal low takes over and heads northeast up the New England
coast. As that system heads away, the high over the northern
High Plains will build slowly southeastward into the area.
With a cold and dry air mass currenty in place, light precip
aloft so far has mostly evaporated/sublimated before reaching
the ground. Exception has been the far south, where light snow
and mixed precip has been observed in the Delmarva so far with
little impact. However, as the lows approach from both west and
south, expect precip to blossom across the region with strong
warm advection and difluence developing aloft to support it. The
strong warm advection aloft, and easterly winds at the surface,
should work on making this a mixed precip system, with initial
snow transitioning to sleet/freezing rain in nearly the entire
CWA, and to rain from I-95 and points south and east. Freezing
rain looks to linger longest across the western Philly suburbs,
so continue with highest ice accumulations in this area,
possibly up to around a quarter inch, but did drop snowfall
amounts a smidge across Philly metro as it looks like the warm
air really comes in fast aloft.
Further north, a burst of moderate to heavy snow looks likely
after sunset for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern NJ,
possibly extending into the northern Philly suburbs and central
NJ briefly, before the change to sleet and freezing rain. Where
that lingers longest as snow, highest accumulations will be
found, with 3-6 inches expected in northernmost NJ, 2-4 inches
in the Poconos and the rest of north-central NJ, and 1-2 inches
in the Lehigh Valley, northern Philly suburbs and central NJ.
This prolonged period of snow, followed by sleet, should result
in less ice accumulation, closer to a tenth of an inch or less.
From I-95 on south and east, a transition to rain looks likely
overnight as the easterly flow works some warmer air inland,
though this appears to likely be a struggle, and it may fail to
change over in Philly until very late in the storm. That said,
still expect around a tenth of an inch of ice across the I-95
corridor and interior southern NJ and northern Delmarva. That
quickly declines further southeast where oceanic influence
should be more dominant, with ice of just a few hundredths of an
inch before warming occurs.
The consolidated low pulls out of the area early Sunday, and
conditions improve pretty markedly by day's end, with sun
returning on a gusty northwest wind. After lows tonight mostly
near or below freezing, expect highs Sunday to rebound back to
40 or higher for most of the region, with far southern aras
approaching 50 and only areas from about Allentown north likely
to stay in the 30s. This should allow any lingering ice to melt
for much of the region. The gusty wind will make it feel colder
with gusts of 20-30 mph likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will be southeast of Cape Cod by Sunday morning
and will continue to track out to sea. High pressure builds in
from the west, and a tightening pressure gradient will allow for
west to northwest winds around 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts
to develop. Highs on Sunday will be around the seasonal
averages, topping off in the upper 30s to low 40s, though in the
mid and upper 40s in southern Delmarva.
High pressure continues to build east Sunday night before
passing over the Northeast on Monday and departing Monday night.
Dry conditions on tap with temperatures several degrees below
normal. Lows will be in the teens and 20s at night and in the
upper 20s in the southern Poconos to the 30s for most of the
area and in the low 40s in southern Delmarva on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions on tap for the Long Term period as several
storm systems are gearing up to affect the region.
High pressure will be over the area Tuesday morning before
departing by early afternoon. Developing low pressure lifts
towards the Mid-Atlantic and moves out to sea Tuesday night.
Although surface temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
freezing for most of the area, it will be relatively dry for
most of the day with dew points in the teens and low 20s,
gradually rising through the day. As a result, there should be
enough of a wet bulb effect for temperatures to fall below
freezing and for precipitation to be mostly snow, though
depending on how far north the low can reach, there may be a
rain/snow mix for Delmarva Tuesday afternoon. There also could
be a fairly sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the
accumulating snow. 08/00Z operational GFS and the CMC seem to
have a southern shift with the low, and the 08/01Z NBM showing
40 to 50 percent probability of 4 inches of accumulating snow or
more, pretty much across most of the region. This is a tick
down from the prior run of the NBM, and may slide south with the
next run of the NBM. 08/00Z NAM goes out to 12Z Tuesday, so
will need another 24 hours to get a handle on initial potential
snow accumulations for the area.
This low will depart late Tuesday night, and then another storm
system follows behind it fairly quickly for late Wednesday
through Thursday. Based on latest trends, a quick shot of snow
is possible throughout starting Wednesday night, but without
much of a strong blocking high over eastern Canada, the low
looks to take more of a northern track during the day Thursday,
allowing snow to mix with and change to rain for all but far
northern areas.
High pressure returns to close out the work week. Temperatures
will be at or below the seasonal averages for the period.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Through tonight...VFR conditions as of early this afternoon
will slide downward after 20Z from southwest to northeast as
snow, then sleet and freezing rain, envelops the region.
Expect terminals to be IFR either due to vsby or cigs by around
0Z and likely staying IFR or lower thru tonight as precip from
KPHL south and east transitions to plain rain, though icing
lingers further northwest. A burst of heavier snow, possibly
with vsby below 1/2 mile, is possible for KABE with lower odds
at KTTN/KRDG. Further south, mixing with sleet should prevent
the excessively low vsby. Precip tapers off late tonight but low
cigs linger. Winds southeast winds around 5 kts become easterly
this evening and then light and variable overnight. Moderate
confidence overall, low confidence in individual details.
Sunday...Improving to VFR after a mostly IFR start as northwest
winds increase behind the system, gusting 20-30 kts. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday...Lingering sub-VFR conditions Sunday morning will give
way to VFR conditions in the afternoon.
Sunday night through Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SN,
though a RA/SN mix is possible at KACY.
Wednesday...Lingering sub-VFR conditions in the morning, then
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. Southeast
winds around 10-20 kt will become westerly after midnight as low
pressure passes on by. A few gusts up to 25 kt possible, but
largely should remain below SCA thresholds. Seas around 2-4
feet. Periods of sleet expected early, before changing to plain
rain.
Sunday...SCA in effect for wind gusts up to 25 kt on the ocean
and on Delaware Bay and for seas on the ocean up to 5 ft.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. VSBY
restrictions in snow and/or rain.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for PAZ060-070-
071-101>104.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for PAZ054-055-
061-062-105-106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for NJZ016>019.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for NJZ001-
007>010-012-015.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for NJZ013-020-
022-027.
DE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for DEZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for DEZ002.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...AKL/RCM
MARINE...AKL/RCM