NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 4:24 AM MST, 8 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 8, 4:24 AM MST, 8 hours 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
424 AM MST Sat Feb 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A weak reinforcing system will move through the region
Saturday. Drier and colder air will then remain in place into
early next week. Models support a stronger system later in the
week, with potential for substantial mountain snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Monday)...Area radars only showing some
modest returns across southern Utah this morning, with a handful
of observing stations picking up on some continued light snow
showers. These are associated with what lingering moisture is left
over from the departing system Friday, and will continue to
decrease in coverage through the morning. Otherwise, fairly quiet
conditions along with cooler temperatures are noted across the
region.
Through the day Saturday, a secondary reinforcing shortwave
impulse within the broader longwave trough will pivot through the
forecast region. With the origins largely continental in nature,
moisture associated with this feature will be quite limited.
Still, most guidance suggests it will be sufficient along with
synoptic forcing to trigger the development of some isolated to
scattered snow showers, primarily during the afternoon and evening
hours, and particularly for the northern third of the forecast
region (roughly areas at latitudes north of Utah Valley or so).
While most locations will probably only see some light flurries,
if anything, some high resolution CAMs such as the HRRR show
potential to pick up maybe a quick trace to up to a half inch of
snow or so in any heavier showers. This potential is also
highlighted by some very modest instability, and associated small
uptick in snow squall parameter, particularly across southwest
Wyoming. While likely not overly impactful on a large scale, still
something to be aware of if traveling across northern Utah or
southwest Wyoming tomorrow. Otherwise, while cooler than Friday,
temperatures will remain fairly close to climatological normal.
For Sunday, the reinforcing shortwave departs to the east and
more zonal type flow develops overhead. Along with drier air
moving in, precipitation will become limited to a flurry or two in
some of the regions mountainous locations. Temperatures will dip
a few degrees or so for afternoon highs across most locations, but
otherwise Sunday should remain a fairly quiet day.
.LONG TERM...(After 12Z/5AM Monday)...Dry, westerly flow will be in
place across Utah and southwest Wyoming on Monday, with temperatures
near to just below normal. Despite a quiet start to the period, more
active weather will arrive mid-week, with a shortwave trough diving
southeastward from the PacNW. This system is somewhat lacking in
terms of moisture, thus expect only some light mountain showers from
late Tuesday into Wednesday with little snow accumulations. Cold air
will be reinforced with a weak baroclinic zone, with temperatures
dropping by 5-10 degrees. There is a small subset of ensemble
members (~30%) that favor this cold air reaching further into our
area, which could further lower temperatures if this occurs.
A transient ridge will quickly pass across the area late Wednesday
into Thursday as a strong Pacific trough pushes into the western US
late Thursday. Along this trough, decaying atmospheric river
moisture is looking more likely to make its way into Utah from the
southwest, though plenty of uncertainty still remains in the
orientation and track of the trough as it makes its way inland.
Currently, it appears this moisture will move in from the southwest
along with stout warm-air advection, thus initially expecting yet
another valley rain/mountain snow event. Unlike many storms we've
seen this year, however, this system looks more likely to produce
widespread mountain snow across the whole state late in the work
week, bringing much-needed moisture to southern Utah in
particular.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Light, southeasterly winds will continue through
the morning, becoming light and variable at times. Winds will then
likely transition to northwesterly around 18-19z. Mountain
obscuration is possible after 18z, though CIGs could waver between
6000-8000ft AGL. VFR conditions will prevail.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Rain/snow has largely moved
out of the area early this morning, though some MVFR CIGs are
lingering around KHCR, KCDC, and KBCE, likely to slowly dissipate by
~13-14z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with some mountain
obscuration possible this afternoon/early evening across northern
Utah/southwest Wyoming with the passage of a weak wave.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Cunningham
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity