Drought in Colorado, May 13 to 31, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1134 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow.

- Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will be possible today and tomorrow
  mainly in the afternoon.

- Dry and windy conditions will allow for elevated to critical
  fire weather conditions today and tomorrow where fuels are
  deemed critical.

- Chances for precipitation increase on Wednesday and Thursday.
  Also, expect temperatures to cool to below normal as this
  system moves through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

A strong low pressure system is currently making landfall in the
Pacific Northwest, which is causing the ridge of high pressure to
move east. Not before one last gasp of near record temperatures.
Expected highs today are close to record values, but tomorrow they
are a few degrees cooler. Well above average regardless. The other
more notable impact from this approaching system will be the winds
due to the tight pressure gradient overhead. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph
will be common this afternoon across northwest portions of the
forecast area. Tomorrow those strong winds spread over most of the
area therefore the wind advisory has been expanded to cover most
valley locations. In fact, the model consensus for 700 mb wind
speeds suggest the potential for gusts up to 60 mph today and
tomorrow. These winds will come out of the southwest and due to
ongoing drought in the Four Corners region blowing dust is possible
in that region tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Strong gusts will continue on Wednesday as the 500 mb low begins to
ascend northeastwards into the Upper Plains. Locations near the
Divide and south of the San Juans look to be favored during this
period with 30-40 mph gusts likely and localized higher values,
particularly at the highest elevations. Moisture from this system is
lacking as PWAT's are anticipated to stay below normal as the trough
passes through. However, favorable dynamics should be in place with
a combination of the passing attendant cold front and an embedded
shortwave at the trough's base during the afternoon Wednesday. This
looks to result in some scattered showers across much of the CWA
with a focus on high elevations along and north of I-70 lingering
through Thursday. Considering the cooling temperatures following
FROPA, which will fall to 5-10 degrees below normal (a stark
contrast from the current pattern), some light snow is expected in
the Uintas, Flat Tops, and northern Colorado ranges, though snow
ratios should stay wet and accumulations relatively shallow (<6
inches).

Ensembles exhibit mild divergence heading into Friday, though the
general idea is that northwesterly to near-zonal flow will set up on
the backside of the departing trough. Flow will transport some
moisture from the PacNW into the Intermountain West, though we
likely will not see much of an uptick in PWAT's as ensembles are
only indicating anomalies of 100-120% of normal. Model guidance does
suggest that a transient shortwave could skirt the northern portion
of the CWA, though it is difficult to tell where storms may pop up.
Regardless, should we see a few storms appear, precipitation will
likely remain light and orographically-driven resulting from
unimpressive moisture and dynamics.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Winds are expected to remain elevated across the area through
the next 24 hours. Sheltered valley locations will deal with
LLWS through about 15z, before stronger upper level winds mix
down to the surface. Peak winds tomorrow afternoon will be
southerly to southwesterly, gusting 30-40 knots. High level
clouds will remain over the area, but shouldn't pose an issue to
aviation. Lower clouds will begin to move in across northeastern
Utah after 00z tomorrow ahead of the cold front. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002-
     006>008-011-020>022.
UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

&&

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
420 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-131200-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley-
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
420 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest
Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah
and southeast Utah.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Afternoon wind gusts of 30-50 mph are on tap for the lower valleys of
eastern Utah and western Colorado today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gusty afternoon winds up to 50 mph redevelop on Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances will be a regular feature in the forecast
Wednesday through Sunday, mainly over the high terrain.

Multiple days of unseasonably warm temperatures may result in
elevated rivers and streams from snowmelt at higher elevations in
the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
945 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Manila            40.98N 109.68W
05/11/2025  M49 MPH          Daggett            UT   AWOS

            AWOS station K40U 2 ESE Manila.

&&