A deep trough over the Great Basin pulled anomalous deep moisture into western Colorado with a threat for excessive rainfall with any storm activity. One particular storm tracked over the Redstone area, resulting in a mudslide on Highway 133 due to heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A deep trough over the Great Basin pulled anomalous deep moisture into western Colorado with a threat for excessive rainfall with any storm activity. One particular storm tracked over the Redstone area, resulting in a mudslide on Highway 133 due to heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:03 PM MST, 57 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 303 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, and there is a potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. - Temperatures will remain below normal today and tomorrow, before warming to 5-10 degrees above normal early next week. - Lingering moisture tomorrow will lead to another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the terrain, but the rest of the holiday weekend will be mostly dry. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Tonight scattered showers and storms will persist especially across the northern half of the area. This is where the shortwave trough will track and provide some lift. A dry slot works in from the southwest behind the departing wave, and that will try and mix down to the lower levels during the day. Given current PWAT values well above normal it will be hard to mix out all of the moisture so there should be enough for scattered convection in the afternoon and evening. Right now the models are favoring areas along and north of I-70. The potential for heavy rainfall decreases with the dry air mixing down, but it can not be ruled out. The chances frequent lightning, small hail and gusty winds still exist. Convection looks to dissipate in the late evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The long term period brings a return of warm and dry conditions with daily chances of afternoon convection along the Divide and in the San Juans. Dry air moves in on Saturday, bringing an end to the widespread showers and thunderstorms we have received during the latter half of the workweek. Model disagreement on atmospheric moisture introduces some uncertainty in regard to the precipitation forecast in the long term. Over the weekend both the ECMWF Ens and the GFS Ens keep PWATs below or near normal in the southern mountains, but the ECMWF Ens keeps the northern half of our CWA more moist than the GFS Ens. During the workweek the ECMWF Ens is consistently drier than the GFS Ens, keeping PWAT anomalies 10-30% of normal lower than the GFS Ens. However, even considering the differences between models, moisture ultimately looks limited through the long term. Despite the dry conditions, weak winds are expected to keep the CWA from meeting critical fire weather thresholds. A center of high pressure to our south will set up southwesterly flow and subsidence. As a result, temperatures will gradually warm each day Saturday through Thursday. High temperatures climb from just below normal on Saturday to 5-10 degrees above normal on Thursday. This could mean temperatures exceeding 100 degrees for the desert valleys during the workweek. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers have begun in eastern Utah. Over the next few hours showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region, potentially impacting most TAF sites. The main threats will be gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but brief drops to MVFR conditions are possible during periods of heavy rain. Coverage of showers should become isolated by 12Z, but precipitation is possible through the night, especially north of I-70. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 313 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-040915- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 313 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Abundant tropical moisture will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms today, with an increased risk of heavy rain and flash flooding in addition to the usual threats of gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will once again form over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with one more day of increased risk for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Conditions will dry out through the weekend, with temperatures climbing above normal by Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A mudslide occurred on Highway 133 due to heavy rainfall from a thunderstorm at mile marker 59.5. Radar estimated that 0.7 to 1.4 inches of rain fell within the drainage above Highway 133. The mudslide was reported at 1530 MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1285750.