Wildfire in California, November 13 to 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 AM PST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Periods of rain, high elevation snow and breezy to windy
  conditions are expected today through Sunday. Impacts to travel
  and recreation are likely, especially for Mono County passes.

* A colder storm is possible early next week, bringing increased
  winds, and additional valley rain and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current radar imagery as of 1 AM is already showing rain showers
over the Sierra as the upper low slowly moves onshore with a
southerly path this morning. This activity is expected to continue
throughout the day. The heaviest rain showers will have a hard
time crossing over the Sierra through late this morning. HREF
shows heavier showers starting to spillover into areas north of
I-80 late this morning and early afternoon. Snow levels have
settled at 9 to 10 kft through this evening and coming down to 7
to 8 kft tonight into Friday morning. Therefore, we have further
pushed back the Winter Weather Advisory for the Tahoe Basin above
8000 ft to 10 PM tonight. No significant changes are seen with the
Winter Storm Warning in Mono.

Rain appears to be the main concern for most of the Sierra,
especially the western slopes. On the eastern slopes we are
expecting possibly 1-2 inches near the crest, 0.5-1 inch western
slopes, and less than 0.20 inches for the Sierra Front through
Friday morning. The higher amounts of liquid in the higher
elevations of mountains, are not likely to result in flash
flooding, but watch out for any rock/mudslides later in the day
once the ground becomes saturated. As mentioned earlier the best
chances for rain will be north of I-80 today, then tomorrow the
better chances will be south of the interstate as the upper low
shifts to a northeastward track.

Winds are still another concern today. Main areas affected appear
to be the Sierra, and other mountain ranges in CA and western NV
per the HRRR and GLAMP. We have issued a Wind Advisory for Sierra
communities in the Tahoe Basin this morning through this evening
to account for gusts between 40-55 mph. The winter product for
Mono county already accounts for strong winds.

This weekend, we get a brief break before the upper low comes back
north and brings another shot at periods of rain and high elevation
mountain snow above 7.5 to 8 kft along with increased winds mainly
over the mountains.

Models and NBM guidance are bringing the next system early next
week with more chances for valley rain, mountain snow and increased
winds in mountain ridges. However, based on model consistency over
the last several days our confidence is low. Plus there is a lot
of uncertainty with the timing and placement of the next trough
next week. So, we will have to stay tuned on the development of
subsequent systems to make any forecast decisions.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

LLWS and mountain wave turbulence continue to be the main concern
as S-SW FL100 winds remain at 40-55 kts. Surface winds increase
after 16Z with S/SW gusts of 25-40 kts with the strongest winds
over Sierra terminals. Winds slowly start to subside at all
terminals between 04Z-09Z tonight. Periods of rain continue for
Sierra terminals through Friday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions and
mountain obscurations are likely at KTRK-KTVL-KMMH from 10Z this
morning. MVFR conditions possible at western NV terminals as a
few showers spillover after 18Z.

-Salas/HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
     Friday NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
     Friday CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday
     CAZ073.

&&