An extremely steep cold front, lifting warm front across Arkansas, and an Arctic surface high pressure across the Central Plains region of the CONUS brought a mixed bag of severe weather to the Natural State. A tornado occurred within the warm sector latching on to the warm front in southeastern Arkansas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
An extremely steep cold front, lifting warm front across Arkansas, and an Arctic surface high pressure across the Central Plains region of the CONUS brought a mixed bag of severe weather to the Natural State. A tornado occurred within the warm sector latching on to the warm front in southeastern Arkansas. Additionally, behind the steep cold front which swept in from the northwest, a location in far north-central Arkansas recorded less than an inch of snow on the backside of this dynamic storm system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 5, 6:10 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 610 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Complex fcst is set to unfold acrs the FA today w/ a severe wx threat acrs the S/Ern quarter of the state this aftn, and winter precip/cold snap acrs Nrn AR overnight tonight into Mon mrng. Recent WV imgry depicted the primary upper trof and vorticity max moving over the lee of the Rockies, and a deepening sfc low over the OK/TX panhandle vcty. Strengthening cyclonic sfc flow was also attributing to incrsg isentropic ascent acrs much of the Srn Cntrl US. Composite radar imgry indicated widespread elevated scattered precip, and even some isolated thunder over N/Ern OK and N/Wrn AR, suggesting elevated instability common in strong WAA regimes, despite sfc temps in the 40s. Thru the day today, the aforementioned sfc low wl quickly advance E- N/Ewrd along the AR/MO border region, coming into phase w/ the ejecting upper trof. Over the past 24 hrs, short range model guidance has not waivered on the fcst parameter space expected over S/Ern AR later this aftn. 05/00Z HREF mean MUCAPE progs suggest instability b/w 500 to near 1000 J/kg (incrsg buoyancy further Swrd near the ARKLAMISS vcty) developing w/in the warm sector later today. Wind shear and kinematics wl not be lacking given the shortwave and progressive trof set to move acrs the FA. Overall, bulk shear in excess of 50-60 kts and 0-3km SRH of 400 m2/s2 wl support rotating updrafts today. Despite an upward trend in instability progs over the past few days, buoyancy remains the limiting factor for a more widespread and problematic severe wx threat, at least w/in S/Ern AR. Weaker (relatively) instability could lead to more failure modes for discrete cell maintenance in a background environment w/ higher-end kinematics. Regarding fcst storm-mode, 05/00Z HREF members cont to advertise a broken line of storms quickly developing along the asctd trailing cdfrnt near 16Z-18Z this aftn over Wrn AR. Upscale growth into a linear MCS structure wl be favored given a greater component of bndry-parallel shear vectors, however, a few pre-frntl discrete cells may still be possible given the strong regime of synoptic and mesoscale ascent. If a few discrete cells develop and exhibit maintenance in the warm sector, this wl lead to an increased threat for tornadoes. Otherwise, strong forcing and motions along the advancing frnt should mainly foster a damaging wind threat w/ any QLCS or bowing segments that develop, and as such, a QLCS tornado threat wl be maintained along the line of storms as well. Most CAM guidance depicts swiftly moving convective activity clearing S/Ern AR near 06/00Z Sun evng, w/ drier condns ensuing and the severe threat promptly ending thereafter. Overnight tonight, the sfc low wl be departing quickly to the N/E, and a window for winter precip is anticipated acrs the Nrn tier of AR thru early Mon mrng. Ongoing winter wx precip near the N/Wrn quadrant of the sfc low wl lkly extend into Nrn AR thru this timeframe. Most lkly mixed-precip types would include freezing drizzle to snow that may lead to light glazing and accumulations, particularly on elevated sfcs and roadways such as bridges and overpasses. Current thinking regarding snow accumulations has not waivered, w/ only a dusting up to one inch expected acrs Nrn AR. The primary concerns around winter precip would be timing of precip and impacts to area roadways prior to early Monday morning commute times, where area roads could become more hazardous. Mon, markedly colder air wl be ushered into the state in the wake of the aforementioned cdfrnt, w/ morning lows in the low teens acrs N/Wrn AR, and low to mid 20s elsewhere. In addition to cold air temps, strong N/Wrly winds wl drive wind chill values to near zero degrees or less over the N/W. Elsewhere, single digits to low teens are expected fm the early mrng hrs Mon to at least the early aftn before winds begin to relax. Some portions of N/Wrn AR may need a Cold Weather Advisory for hazardous wind chill values on Mon mrng. It should be noted that whether or not an advisory is issued in your area, wind chill values in the single digits can still be extremely hazardous if you are not wearing proper clothing and taking adequate precautions. In addition to the mixed batch of hazardous wx potential over the next 24 hours, gusty and turbulent winds are expected thru the day today, w/ strong variable winds (initially S/Erly) thru this aftn, and N/Wrly winds ensuing overnight Sun behind the cdfrnt and passing sfc low. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: In the upper lvls, a period of zonal flow will persist over Arkansas for Tuesday and Wednesday as a closed low at the base of a trof will be positioned across the Desert Southwest region of the CONUS. At the sfc, high pressure will remain across the region of Tuesday and Wednesday with a dry backdoor cold front moving across the state from northeast to southwest during the day on Thursday. Expect a continued period of fair, dry, but cold weather that will consist of well-below average temperatures for early January by as much as 10 to 15 degrees. Again, wind chill values will need to be monitored closely across northern Arkansas as they will be approaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but in the single digits for most of northern Arkansas and teens elsewhere across the state on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Mid-range model consensus is maintaining a cohesion between the placement of upper lvl and sfc features that are both noted within the latest prominent GFS and ECMWF model runs and have been consistent overall given their past runs. The alluding to this consensus is noted because during this period will be an appreciable opportunity for Arkansas to experience accumulating snow beginning Thursday and continuing into late Friday. At H500, a trof with a closed low within the base of the trof will dive southward over the Central Plains region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will move across the state of Arkansas throughout the day on Thursday into Friday with movement from northwest to southeast across the state. In unison, a sfc trof will extend northward of a sfc low pressure center in the Gulf of Mexico that will usher moisture into the state just in advance of the approaching cold front allowing for the ability of wintry precipitation. At the moment, snow accumulations over this period do look to range from 1 to 4 inches across most of the state with some models bullish on snow accumulation trending a few inches higher and other models trending in the bearish or opposite direction of no snow to a trace amount. Models will continue to be closely watched as it still remains too far in advance to pinpoint snowfall accumulation amounts and placement across the state. The key takeaway is currently models are in agreement that accumulating snowfall will take place across CWA and state of Arkansas beginning Thursday into the day on Friday. Features in the upper lvls, at the sfc, and other considerations such as a decent lingering snow pack that will be present across Kansas and Missouri may greatly impact snowfall amounts and will continue to be monitored closely within future forecast packages. SATURDAY: On Saturday, to close out the long-term forecast discussion, slight upper lvl ridging will be in place over Arkansas with high pressure at the surface leading to cold and dry conditions. Temperatures will continue with the theme of being below normal transitioning into mid- January. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Area-wide MVFR condns were noted w/ Nrn terminals falling to IFR lvls as of 05/12Z. Sctd showers were ongoing over the N/Wrn half of the FA. Condns wl cont to deteriorate thru the day as an aprchg sfc low fm the W drives an advancing wrmfrnt Nwrd. CIGs should lower to IFR/LIFR lvls later this mrng with SHRA activity filling in across AR. VISBYs wl lkly reduce as well invof this frnt and asctd precip activity, mainly acrs the N/Wrn half of the FA. Prominent LLWS remains prevalent at all area terminals given significant wind energy surrounding the aprchg storm system. A cdfrnt wl move swiftly fm W to E acrs the FA later this aftn, w/ SHRA/TSRA developing along the frnt. Turbulent sfc winds are also expected thru the TAF PD, w/ Srly to S/Erly winds ahead of the aprchg sfc low, bcmg Wrly to N/Wrly behind the frnt later tonight. Sustained readings of 15-25 kts and gusts in excess of 25-30 kts wl be common thru the PD. Late in the PD, some winter precip, primarily snow, is anticipated acrs far Nrn AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 52 22 33 18 / 100 10 0 0 Camden AR 67 23 40 20 / 90 10 0 0 Harrison AR 47 15 27 13 / 90 30 0 0 Hot Springs AR 64 21 37 19 / 90 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 65 24 36 22 / 100 0 0 0 Monticello AR 68 25 38 22 / 100 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 19 36 17 / 90 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 18 29 15 / 90 30 0 0 Newport AR 51 23 34 20 / 100 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 66 25 38 21 / 100 10 0 0 Russellville AR 59 21 37 19 / 90 0 0 0 Searcy AR 60 23 35 19 / 100 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 64 26 36 22 / 90 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ004>008-015-017-103-203. && SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 325 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341-060930- Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence- Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark- Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln- Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest- Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County- Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County- Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County- Polk County Lower Elevations- Central and Eastern Montgomery County- Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations- Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations- Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations- Van Buren County Higher Elevations- Southern and Eastern Logan County- Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations- Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations- Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- 325 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Unsettled weather is forecast for the region through Monday morning. A dual threat for hazardous weather will exist, including severe weather across southeastern Arkansas this afternoon, and winter precipitation across northern areas overnight tonight. Scattered thunderstorms, including strong to severe storms, are expected across southeastern Arkansas today, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Winter precipitation, including some freezing rain to light snow, will be possible over far northern Arkansas overnight tonight and through early Monday morning. These areas could see a light glazing from freezing rain and/or a dusting of snow up to one inch. The primary concerns will be elevated surfaces and bridges becoming slick and hazardous. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Monday and through the remainder of next week, a much colder airmass will be firmly entrenched over the Natural State. Highs will be mainly in the 30s, with nighttime lows in the teens and 20s. Northern Arkansas will likely see wind chill values drop into the single digits during the late night and early morning hours as early as Monday morning. Late in the week, Thursday through Friday, trends are showing a greater possibility for accumulating snow over the forecast area, but there is still large uncertainty regarding potential impacts. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation may be needed for portions of southeast Arkansas Sunday afternoon to evening. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 72/74
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:00 UTC.
1 winter weather, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow was measured at 0.8 inches on a snow board near Colfax.
The Garrett Bridge tornado began north of Arkansas Highway 54 along Arkansas Highway 54E. The tornado tracked northeastward where it damaged some chicken houses along Arkansas Highway 54E. The tornado then proceeded east-northeast along Arkansas Highway 54E causing roof damage to two homes. The tornado then tracked towards the northeast uprooting and snapping several trees before crossing Grangeway Road. Due to the lack of damage in this area, the tornado appears to have lifted near a barn just north of Grangeway Road. This tornado tracked through Lincoln County and has been given a rating of EF-1 with 95 mph estimated winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Arkansas, 2025Warnings in Arkansas, January 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1247048, 1244460.