Deep monsoon moisture led to heavy rainfall and some areas of flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Deep monsoon moisture led to heavy rainfall and some areas of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 4:40 AM MST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 440 AM MST Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...An uptick in monsoonal moisture is forecast through Friday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday...With the high now in place over New Mexico, and weak troughing near the Gulf of California, sub-tropical moisture is advected northward into Arizona. PWATs look to increase to near the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will usher in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Arizona. Activity looks likely peak on Thursday, as added upper- level dynamics from the approaching trough will aid in upscale growth for the storms. However, latest guidance does seem to track the low further westward (initially), which may limit it's overall influence. Given the increase in moisture, flash flooding looks to be the primary concern over the next few days. A couple more vigorous storm may be able to produce some hail and gusty winds, however widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Saturday through Tuesday...Over the weekend the aforementioned trough begins to propagate eastward, ushering in drier air behind it (especially across the western-half of the state). Global ensembles do point to a downward trend in PWATs as a result. However, with the ridge still in place to the east, the monsoonal flow looks to keep enough moisture remaining in place to keep isolated to scattered activity in the forecast. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 16/12Z through Thursday 17/12Z...SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop N/E of KCMR-KPAN line after 19Z, then gradually move southwest through 06Z. Some lingering SHRA will be possible thereafter. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be possible in and around TS. HZ/FU possible near KGCN/KPGA due to nearby wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds SW-NW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/12Z through Saturday 19/12Z...Widespread SHRA/TSRA continues, with strongest storms likely between 18Z-04Z each afternoon/evening. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds will be possible in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15 kts on Thursday, becoming S/SW on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Increasing monsoon moisture will bring scattered thunderstorms Wednesday, becoming more widespread Thursday. These storms will be capable of producing a wetting rainfall. Gusty outflow winds and flash flooding will be the primary hazards. Otherwise, daytime winds west/southwest 5-10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Friday through Sunday...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Friday, beginning to decrease in coverage for the weekend. Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Winds west/southwest 5- 10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorm && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
126 AM MST Wed Jul 16 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0928 PM Flash Flood 1 SE Winslow 35.02N 110.70W
07/15/2025 Navajo AZ Dept of Highways
Corrects previous flash flood report from 1
S Winslow. ADOT reports State Route 87
closed due to flooding of underpass at
milepost 342 in Winslow.
&&
HumphreysThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A USGS stream gauge on Tonto Creek above Gun Creek (TNRA3) reported a 2 foot rise after heavy rainfall upstream earlier in the morning.
The USGS stream gauge on Cataract Creek below Heather Wash measured a 2.8 foot rise in one hour due to upstream heavy rainfall.
Public reported 2 feet of water in Webber Creek with debris from the West Fire scar after heavy rain fell on the scar.
Public reported a minor debris flow in the gully crossing Control Road (FS 64) after heavy rain fell on the West Fire scar.
Flooding was reported via AZ511.com on the I-17 Southbound lanes near Stoneman Lake Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1264487, 1264489, 1264490, 1264491, 1264488.