A large mesoscale convective system formed over northern Mexico and moved north into Arizona. This feature produced severe weather in southern Arizona and a large haboob dust storm that tracked all the way into southern Yavapai County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A large mesoscale convective system formed over northern Mexico and moved north into Arizona. This feature produced severe weather in southern Arizona and a large haboob dust storm that tracked all the way into southern Yavapai County. The following thunderstorms progressed through northern Arizona and produced heavy rain and some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 25, 4:42 PM MST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 442 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Arizona remains under an active pattern where showers/thunderstorms are expected through at least mid-week, before drier conditions gradually return. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of precipitation chances, look for below normal temperatures each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...A very active day is upon us. A wave that brought some morning showers over the western part of Arizona is moving northwest. Still a few remnant showers over Mojave and Yavapai Counties on the trailing edge of this feature. Meanwhile convection is firing over central and eastern Arizona as things clear out and surface heating destabilizes a relatively moist atmosphere. This will push to the northwest as wave number two impacting mainly northcentral and northeastern Arizona. Wave number three and probably the biggest one of its all is in its infancy. Storms are developing over the northern deserts of Mexico as well as southeastern Arizona and will push northward towards the Tucson and Phoenix metro areas. As these storms move north to northwestward, they may combine into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and continue their trek into Yavapai County and western Coconino County as a nocturnal event. During the night it looks like a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) forms over western Arizona and moves off to the northwest into Nevada Tuesday morning. This will take what's left of wave number three with it and lift it into Utah by mid Tuesday morning. Short term models are showing that Tuesday may be a down day across the western half of Arizona as leftover cloud cover and a worked over atmosphere may put a lid on convection for the day. The eastern half of the state will still see some storms fire as cloud cover and a less worked over atmosphere are expected in that area. Again hazards include heavy rain, frequent lightning and strong winds, both under the storms and ahead of the storms in the way of outflows. The Flash Flood Watch over the Kaibab Plateau, Marble Canyon and Grand Canyon National Park remain in place including the Dragon Bravo and White Sage burn scars through at least 8pm Tuesday night, will continue to monitor to see if this needs to be possibly extended one more day. Starting Thursday another West Coast trough moves towards the region and this will bring drier air to the region as well as suppress the Four Corners High to the east and southeast. This will bring a downturn in storms as the week progresses, especially across the west half of the CWA, with the best storm chances over the eastern half. This will also allow a slight warming trend with temperatures rising from about 5 degrees below average for first half of the week back towards average for Labor Day weekend. S-SW or SW-W && .AVIATION...Tuesday 26/00Z through Wednesday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Expect chances for SHRA/TSRA through the TAF period, including the overnight hours. Outside of gusty/erratic winds, look for southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/00Z through Friday 29/00Z...VFR conditions will continue outside of MVFR conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Look for daily chances for SHRA/TSRA primarily between 18Z-03Z, but light showers could continue at night. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storms, otherwise look for westerly winds at 5-15 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daytime highs will trend below normal through much of the week from increased RH values and precipitation chances. Look for widespread showers/storms both afternoons/evenings, with isolated activity continuing overnight. Gusty/erratic winds are possible near the storms and storm driven outflows at 20-30 mph are possible. Otherwise look for south through west winds 5-15 mph. Thursday through Saturday...Daytime highs will rise back towards normal by the end of the week. A drying trend will also return for the second half of the week as a West Coast trough pushes the Four Corners High east and brings in some drier air. Storm chances will decrease or disappear from the western half of the state, with best chance of showers/storms being over the eastern mountains. Outside of storm driven outflow winds, expect southwest through northwest winds 5-15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for AZZ004>006. && PUBLIC...Bernhart AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
636 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025
AZZ008-037-260200-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins AZ-Yavapai County Mountains AZ-
636 PM MST Mon Aug 25 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT AREAS NEAR WILHOIT IN YAVAPAI
COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM MST...
At 636 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilhoit, or 14 miles southwest of Prescott, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wilhoit, Copper Basin, Rancho Vista Estates, Highland Pines,
Thumbe Butte, Kirkland Junction, Kirkland, Skull Valley, Ponderosa
Park and Walnut Grove.
This includes State Route 89 between mile markers 286 and 307.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 11276 3457 11278 3454 11248 3422 11249
3430 11268
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 175DEG 21KT 3437 11261
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HumphreysThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:12 UTC.
1 dust storm, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An ADOT webcam showed visibility reduced to an estimated 3/4 of a mile on I-17 near Sunset Point.
A USGS stream gauge on Granite Creek (GCRA3) measured a 4.6 foot rise in 30 minutes. A CoCoRaHS observer upstream of the gauge confirmed water nearing a business parking lot in downtown Prescott. The observer measured 2.05 inches of rain.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1282696, 1282695.