A quick moving storm force low pressure system deepened to 972mb as it tracked NE over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska on September 22nd. A sting jet formed on the south side of the low with hurricane force wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A quick moving storm force low pressure system deepened to 972mb as it tracked NE over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska on September 22nd. A sting jet formed on the south side of the low with hurricane force wind gusts. As the low jumped inland near Cross Sound, a sudden wind shift from east to west caused significant tree fall and damage to the community of Elfin Cove.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 9:00 PM AKST, 4 hours earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1000 PM AKDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation update to include the 6z TAF issuance...
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ A strong developing low will
move out of the north pacific will move north through the eastern
gulf to near Cross Sound before moving onshore and then into the
Northwest Canada. The low is expected to deepen to between the
upper 970s and low 980s. Moderate to strong winds are expect
around the low and with the front. Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph
with front for the southern coastal and into Clarence strait area
with gust to to 60 mph for some of the areas. Wind in the
northern portions staying lighter and northerly until about Monday
afternoon when front reaches Lynn Canal area then will will
switch to a southerly and pick for Monday night. The big burst of
winds lasts 6 to 9 hours as it passes through the region. Some
cities may end up with gusts to 60 mph so High wind warning have
been issued overnight into Monday.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/ The active onshore
flow continues with light to moderate showers lasting throughout
the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Some breaks between
showers may occur Tuesday night for the far southern panhandle
before the next system moves in, though chances will remain higher
for the central and northern panhandle. Another low moves into
the Gulf by Wednesday, first bringing heavy rainfall to the
northeast Gulf coast and Yakutat area by late Wednesday morning
into midday. The front will move eastward across the panhandle,
bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday evening through
Thursday. So far the model guidance for the rain and QPF amounts
are largely in agreement, with the highest amount of 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 24 hours along the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat area for
Wednesday as the low looks to linger over the NW Gulf coastline
off Kenai Peninsula through Friday. The rest of the panhandle will
largely see between 1 to 2 inches of rain in 24 hours both
Wednesday and Thursday. The winds for this system largely look to
be just under gale force, with the most likelihood for gales being
along the Gulf Coast Wednesday morning. This however may increase
as recent guidance has slowly been increasing the winds off the
coastline. Winds will decrease Thursday into Friday as the low
begins to weaken, though chances for rain continue largely across
the panhandle through Friday, with the highest chances remaining
in the central and southern parts of the panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION...Conditions are beginning to drop as the near storm
force low approaches the southern panhandle. Some areas of the
northern panhandle are still seeing lingering effects from
showers pushing out of the area, bringing gusty winds and lower
VIS. A majority of the panhandle is already seeing light rain and
lowered VIS, with VFR to MVFR CIGs at or around 3000ft with a
lower scattered deck. The front will be moving through overnight,
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions and high end gales to the southern
panhandle and outer coast, as well as Juneau. LLWS will be very
prominent with this system through a majority of the period,
reaching as far north as the Icy Strait corridor. The rest of the
panhandle will still see very strong winds and lowered
conditions, though the onset will be later in the morning. The
possibility of stronger turbulence will be present, especially for
areas from the Icy Strait Corridor southward, though the
possibility of turbulence extending further north Monday afternoon
may be present. For additional details, please refer to the
Alaska Aviation weather Unit.
In the wake of the system, anticipate diminishing LLWS and wind
speeds, especially through the second half of Monday. Impacts will
still remain elevated through Monday as showers remain prevalent
with continued onshore flow, resulting in occasional periods of
IFR conditions for TAF Sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Main focus is a low and front through the eastern
gulf late Sunday into Monday. A strong southerly push of winds is
expected to move south to north through the inner channels
starting late Sunday night. Min to moderate gale force winds (up
to 40 kt) and seas up to 9 ft are likely for some areas,
especially Clarence Strait, Sumner, Southern Chatham, and Stephens
Passage. Winds and seas for the south will start to diminish
Monday afternoon. Lynn Canal will be the last place to see the
winds, and will even see north winds possibly up to 20 kt Monday
before there is a rapid switch to southerly Monday afternoon with
winds then increasing to 30 kt. Lynn Canal will also be the last
place to see the winds and seas diminish with winds of up to 25 kt
possibly lasting into Monday night.
Gulf Waters: Things will rapidly change into Sunday night as wind
direction switches from SW winds of 15 to 25 kt to E for many
areas ahead of a strong low moving north out of the north Pacific.
The low will take a track almost due north just east of 140 W
strengthening to 980 mb and moving inland near Cross Sound by
Monday afternoon. An area of moderate to strong W gales to 45 kt
will likely be located on the south side of the low, tracking
north with the low, and will mainly be observed E of 140 W
longitude late Sunday night into Monday. Seas are expected to
increase to near 15 to 20 ft for areas E of 140 W mainly due to
wind wave (though a 5 ft SW swell will be present). Winds and seas
will diminish into Monday night with SW flow of 20 kt returning
to much of the gulf waters. However the extended SW flow will
bring some higher swells (up to 7 ft) from the SW into Tuesday
keeping wave heights up to 10 ft into mid week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A band of heavy rain moves through late Sunday. This
will result in elevated streams and the potential for minor
flooding. This will be followed by a strong system on Monday which
will bring with it strong winds and more heavy rain. Rainfall
totals of between 3-5 inches are expected during this time, with
higher amounts possible in isolated areas and at elevation.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ323-327.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM to noon AKDT Monday for AKZ323-327.
Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ324.
Flood Watch through late Monday night for AKZ325.
Strong Wind from 7 AM AKDT Monday through Monday morning for
AKZ325.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ325.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ328-330-
332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031>036-641>643-661>663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-053-644-651-652-664-
671-672.
&&
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
COOP observer at the northern end of Ketchikan, near Port Higgins, estimated winds of 40-65mph between 2-6am on the 22nd and checked the damaging wind box. Peak wind gusts elsewhere in the borough were measured at 44-53mph.
Hydaburg AWOS measured a peak gust of 51 knots (59mph) at 251am and 307am AKDT. The Klawock COOP marked damaging wind in their morning report.
The station at the Annette Island Packing Company measured a peak gust of 59.8mph at 433am AKDT. Other reports at upper elevations from around Annette Island ranged from 71 to 83mph.
At approximately 1pm AKDT on the 22nd, reports starting coming in of significant blow down of trees and damage in the community of Elfin Cove. The local COOP/Emergency Manager reported that at least 5 homes had large trees through their roof and a treefall/rockslide took out part of the power line. Strongest winds occurred around 11am AKDT with a sudden wind shift from east to west and gusts estimated around 70mph.
The Governor of State of Alaska declared a disaster declaration for this event. The State Emergency Operations Center reported: 15 homes with some damage, a cell tower destroyed, phone building with major damage, major damage to radio repeaters, an impassable boardwalk due to downed trees and a 10 15 ft section as unsafe due to structural damage. Estimate expense by the state was $300 thousand, but a value of exact property damage is unknown.
The ferry M/V Columbia traveling through Peril Strait, along the southern border of the zone, measured a peak gust of 52kt at 645am. Peak winds measured at the Marine Exchange sensor on George Island to the east of Elfin Coved included a gust of 64.4 knots (74mph) at 1113am AKDT.
A later report from Gulf Cove, east of Elfin Cove, noted that they also had trees down from this event and damage to their boardwalk. The State disaster declaration included this area.
The ferry M/V Columbia traveling through Peril Strait, along the northern border of the zone, measured a peak gust out of the east of 52kt at 645am AKDT. Peak winds measured at the Sitka Airport ASOS was 46mph after winds shifted to the SW.
Based on the sting jet hitting the outer coast of Baranof and Kruzof Islands, expect tree damage to unpopulated areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, September 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1295977, 1295692, 1295693, 1295690, 1295694.