NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 7:29 AM AKST, 5 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 7:29 AM AKST, 5 hours 31 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
729 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure is continuing to
transition up into the Bering Straits, with a series of low pressure
systems moving through the Bering Sea into Western Alaska through
midweek which will support gusty winds, widespread snow, and warming
temperatures along the West Coast and Western Interior. An overlap
of gusty winds and snow could lead to significant reductions in
visibility at times. Winds, snow chances, and warmer temperatures
will build into the Interior north to the North Slope southwest to
northeast as a more active and warmer pattern begins to encompass
Northern Alaska, and will eventually shift towards the eastern
portion of the Mainland going into the later part of the week.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Advisories have been issued for the
Yukon Delta north through the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast
for gusty winds and snow/blowing snow, with a Wind Advisory in
effect for Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway for strong gap
winds. This active weather pattern is expected to persist in the
Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska to finish out the week, as a series of
low pressure systems and fronts moving into Alaska help to reinforce
warmer temperatures, winds, and snow chances through then, but there
will likely begin more of a transition back to colder and drier
conditions for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior ahead
of moisture from the Bering Sea building in southwest to
northeast tonight into Monday and Tuesday with widespread light
snowfall, heaviest in the Alaska Range.
- Southerly winds will continue to be strong and gusty for Windy
Pass and Isabel Pass through Monday, with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.
- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures will trend warmer through the upcoming work week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A very active weather pattern continues through midweek as a
series of storms in the Bering Sea impact Western Alaska with
gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
blizzard conditions are possible, leading to possible whiteout
conditions at times.
- Strongest wind gusts through midweek will peak around 30-50 mph,
strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where gusts up to
60 mph are possible. These winds will weaken later this evening.
- Temperatures will continue to see a steady warming trend with
southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
in place. A mix will be possible across lowest elevations,
particularly the southern coastlines.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through tonight, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.
- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast, strongest further
west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where
gusts up to 45 mph will continue through Monday.
- A system moving north across Western Alaska will support the
return of widespread snow moving into the Central/Western Brooks
Range today into Tuesday and NW Arctic Coast.
- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the work
week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.
The area of low pressure located over the Bering Sea is continuing
to propagate northward with an associated band of snow currently
pushing up through the Norton Sound. This has allowed for some very
strong and gusty winds to increase out of the north through the
Bering Strait, which is also impacting St. Lawrence Island with
winds up to 60 mph. Widespread snow chances will continue to shift
northeast starting tonight into Monday, with an overlap of snow and
the strongest winds leading to localized blizzard conditions at
times. Snowfall accumulations expected through Wednesday, with this
series of systems moving through, continue to show that the areas of
highest snowfall totals will be for the southern mountains of the
Seward Peninsula, with some areas receiving possibly up to 20", across
the West Coast/NW Arctic Coast, Western Interior, Western and
Central Brooks Range, and in the Alaska Range. This area could
receive generally 3-6" for St. Lawrence Island, and higher
elevations of the Alaska Range/Brooks Range. Strongest winds
remain offshore and at St. Lawrence Island, where wind gusts up to
60 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will
see gusts peak around 30-50 mph. Due to the warm air advection out
of the south, there could also be a few locations for the
Southwest Coast of the Yukon Delta which may have a mix of rain
and snow. Here is where after the intrusion of warm air builds in
tomorrow, there is lower confidence on significantly reduced
visibilities in blowing snow which may result in localized
blizzard conditions. These winds will continue to diminish by
later tonight with a lessening threat of this scenario as it does.
For the Interior, the colder temperatures will continue to
transition to a warming pattern through Wednesday. Snow chances
will build into the Interior tomorrow into Tuesday, with more
moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western Interior and
Alaska Range, and lighter amounts further east over the Yukon
Flats, and along the Alcan Border.
Coastal Hazard Potential Day 1 and 2...As a series of low pressure
systems move through the Bering Sea, minor rises above MHHW are
expected along southwestern portions of the West Coast through
midweek, particularly across the southern Yukon Delta around Hooper
Bay. Ice will help to reduce the possibility of this scenario
overall, but given the bulk of ice is not shorefast yet, we will
continue to monitor this over the coming days.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday night through next Sunday.
Ensemble trends have shown little change with most of the region
being influenced by low pressure. The overall energy from the broad
areas of low pressure is going to move into the Gulf of Alaska
towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will keep the
relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to some of the
coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K Delta to get a
mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into the Gulf, but then
transition back to snow with colder air advection on the backside of
this system. The moisture from the south is going to expand across
much of the Mainland towards the end of the week, and then going
into the following weekend, there are beginning signals which
indicate that a ridge could be building back in towards the end of
next weekend and will continue to lead to a cooling and drying
pattern.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824>826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-806-807-816-817-850-852>854-856-
857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-806-811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-811-816-817-852-
854-856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
Stewey