Blizzard in Alaska, January 7, 2025

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
458 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues across much of the region today through
Wednesday with additional storm systems expected to impact the
region late week and through the upcoming weekend. Above normal
temperatures, plenty of wind, and areas of impactful snow continue
to highlight the impacts from these storms. Through Wednesday,
areas with the greatest wind concerns will continue to be through
the Alaska Range as well as along the western coastline from the
southern Chukchi Sea down through the Bering. Snow will be
heaviest in the Alaska Range as well as throughout portions of the
western and northern interior and elevated areas of the Brooks
range. Later on the focus for the most impactful weather in the
extended period will shift to western sections of the state.
However, some active weather will continue in other regions as
well as various waves of energy move across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

* A Tanana Valley Jet through Delta Junction and vicinity will
  continue with wind gusts up to 50 mph through this morning
  before winds weaken later today.

* Ongoing gusty winds through the Alaska Range will continue
  through Wednesday afternoon:
 - Sustained winds as high as 50 mph gusting to 75 mph are
   expected in Isabel Pass.
 - Winds could extend as far north as Delta Junction, which
   could see winds gust up to 60 mph.

* Temperatures well above average are expected across the
  Interior through this week:
 - Widespread high temperatures in the teens and 20s are
   expected. Some localized areas could potentially see highs
   near 30.
 - Highest temperatures are likely along the northern slopes of
   the Alaska Range and in the passes during the periods of
   high wind, when temperatures could rise into the mid 30s.
 - High temps across most areas will cool back into the 20s by
   Wednesday, and they could persist at those levels for several
   days thereafter.
 - The Yukon Flats will be colder than most of the rest of the
   Interior, with temps likely remaining in the single digits.

* A few rounds of snow will fall across much of the Interior:
 - An extensive area ranging from roughly Indian Mountain to
   Arctic Village will see 7 to 10 inches of snow through early
   Wednesday afternoon.
 - The southern Alaska Range could see several inches of snow.
   Winds with blowing snow could result in low visibilities at
   times. Wintry mix or rain could fall at times, resulting in
   hazardous road conditions.
 - Areas south of the White Mountains, including Fairbanks, are
   likely to remain mostly dry, however some light snow will still
   be possible.

* Strong winds approaching of exceeding 60 mph in the southern
  Alaska Range could lead to periods of blizzard conditions from
  blowing snow, with visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less.

* Winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph over the Dalton Highway Summits
  north of the Yukon River Bridge coupled with falling snow could
  lead to blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less
  through this evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

* Strong winds across the Chukchi Sea are affecting areas along
  its eastern coast:
 - Point Hope has already seen north winds gusting near 60mph and
   will see winds continue before gradually declining through
   midweek. Visibility will be reduced by blowing snow during
   these winds.

* Through Wednesday morning, most of the eastern North Slope will
  see anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow fall, with higher
  totals in the elevated areas of the Brooks Range, including
  Atigun Pass.

West Coast and Western Interior...

* Ongoing strong north winds through the Chukchi Sea, Bering
  Strait, and Bering Sea will continue through today before
  weakening on Wednesday:
 - Kivalina will see winds peak later this morning in the 60 mph
   range before declining through midweek.
 - North winds at Diomede appear to have peaked and should begin
   to decrease through Wednesday night.
 - Winds through the Bering Sea and Bering Strait could increase
   back into the 45 to 55 mph range Thursday into Friday as
   another low moves into the Bering Sea.

* Most of the Western Interior will receive multiple inches of
  snow through Wednesday as a front moves across the area.
 - Most areas will see in the ballpark of 2 to 4 inches of snow.
 - Some areas further north and east, including from Ruby north
   to east of Shungnak, may see up to 5 to 7 inches.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected, especially from today
  onward, as temperatures rise widely into the teens and 20s.
  Areas near the northern slopes of the Alaska Range in
  particular, including McGrath, may see temperatures rise to near
  30 on Wednesday.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
Broad upper troughing continues across the region stretching from
eastern Siberia across the Bering and into Alaska. Underneath
this trough a parade of surface lows continues to impact the area,
bringing periods of enhanced surface winds, occasional snowfall,
and warmer than normal temperatures. As one surface low exits the
east central part of the state today, a weak cold front will push
through the interior with additional snowfall, mainly across the
northern interior where up to 4-7 inches of additional snowfall
will be possible. Meanwhile stronger winds through the Alaska
Range passes will continue as a result of this system as well.
Further west, another low over the southern Bering is helping keep
northerly winds strong along the west coast through today as
well. These winds should all weaken by Wednesday as we await yet
another northward moving low out of the Gulf of Alaska. This
feature will likely weaken quickly as it comes ashore Thursday,
spreading some snow across the eastern interior.

By Friday some weak ridging aloft will push north across
southeastern Alaska as the track of surface lows out of the north
Pacific shifts back towards the western parts of the state. The
first low enters Bristol Bay Friday evening followed quickly by a
more powerful 957mb low pushing into the southeast Bering over
the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7 (Friday through Monday)...
General low pressure over Western Alaska and adjacent marine
waters is likely over the extended time frame, with multiple
lows moving across the area and bringing abundant wind and
precipitation. Some areas, including the Seward Peninsula and
parts of the Western Interior, could see several inches of snow,
potentially totaling upwards of an inch of liquid precipitation.
The Central and Eastern Interior and North Slope will see
heightened winds with these systems and could also see some
snowfall, although any accumulations are likely to be lower.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Storm Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-852.
     Storm Warning for PKZ810-811-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-859>861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Storm Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

Laney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
957 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

AKZ837>845-080300-
Delta Junction-Upper Chena River Valley-Tanana Flats-
Eielson AFB and Salcha-Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills-
Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-Fairbanks Metro Area-Nenana-
Including Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Deltana,
Chena Hot Springs, Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34,
Birch Lake, The Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317,
Eielson AFB, Salcha, Moose Creek, Harding Lake,
The Richardson Highway from MP 317 to MP 346, Ester Dome,
Murphy Dome, The Parks Highway from MP 325 to MP 342, Haystack,
The Elliott Highway from MP 1 to MP 32,
The Steese Highway from MP 12 to MP 85, Two Rivers,
Chena Hot Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34, Fairbanks,
Fort Wainwright, Ester, North Pole, Fox, Nenana,
and The Parks Highway from MP 290 to 325
957 AM AKST Tue Jan 7 2025

...Slick Road Conditions in the Interior...

Ongoing warmer-than-normal weather conditions across the
Interior, with temperatures in many areas reaching near or above
freezing, have led to slick road conditions with black ice in
spots. Use caution when traveling.