Well above average rainfall throughout June in conjunction with late-month heavy rainfall contributed to additional rises into flood stage along the Mississippi River. The river gauge at Lynxville reached minor flood stage before the end of the month and observed rising river levels into July.
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The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Well above average rainfall throughout June in conjunction with late-month heavy rainfall contributed to additional rises into flood stage along the Mississippi River. The river gauge at Lynxville reached minor flood stage before the end of the month and observed rising river levels into July.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 2:12 PM CST, 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/Storm Chances Return Early Friday and Continue for Friday and Friday Night. Probability for .1" of rain is 80-90% however, for 0.5" 30 to 60% with the highest toward DBQ. - Cooler Weekend On Tap, Temperatures 0 to 10 Degrees Below Normal For This Time Of Year. - Turning More Active as we Head into Early Next Week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Overview: Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed a 500mb trough from the Great Lakes southwest toward the southern Plains. A ridge was over the Rockies and the Four-Corners area. Another area of closed low pressure was heading toward the West Coast. A couple of large mesoscale convective systems were over the eastern Great Lakes/PA/NY and also from southern MO/MS/LA. Sporadic convection was noted throughout the ridge and ahead of the West Coast trough. Locally, we are under northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building in. Satellite imagery showed sunny to partly cloudy skies. Winds were brisk northwest with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. Through Friday: A back-door cool front will move southwestward across parts of Wisconsin through tonight with surface high pressure building in. RAP forecast soundings show patchy low level moisture. With the MVFR ceilings upstream. Clouds should decrease after sunset, but will need to monitor any patchy low cloud development. Also, where areas are more clear, there is the potential for valley fog with the weak low level flow. With the drier airmass and short nights, any fog looks to be patchy. Thursday morning, return flow is on the increase on the western periphery of the high pressure system and the ridge aloft tries to build. Moisture transport is on the weaker side, however some 850mb moisture warm air advection will continue to produce clouds and a few sprinkles or a shower could occur Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The RAP/HRRR both show some activity in parts of the forecast area by 01Z,however do not agree on the area. Moisture transport increases across Minnesota after 06Z Thursday night into Friday, shifting eastward across the forecast area and tends to split north and south. Meanwhile a shortwave trough is forecast to flatten the ridge and move through the westerly flow. As a result, we see showers and thunderstorms become more widespread 80- 90%. At this time, the severe weather threat appears low. Forecast soundings show limited instability with MUCAPE of 250-500J/kg with weak mid level winds. 0-3km shear is substantial though. Should instability increase, the severe weather threat would be more elevated, thus as we approach Friday, we'll need to watch this. The surface front lags the short wave, thus showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday night. The upper level trough swings through and tends to focus the storms north and south of the forecast area. Before the cold front clears the forecast area, some instability pushes through overnight, but the flow is more veered by then. The EC/Canadian/GEFS ensemble probability for .1" of rain is 80-90% however, for 0.5" 30 to 60% with the highest toward DBQ. The weekend into next week: Saturday, the upper level trough is digging through the Upper Mississippi Valley with surface high pressure building in the the west. Generally dry weather is forecast, however forecast soundings show a spotty shower cannot be ruled out with the heating during the afternoon/low level instability. Surface high pressure is forecast to be over the area Sunday. High temperatures Thursday through Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s, thus near to 10 degrees below normal. Active weather returns for early next week. A trough over the West Coast during the weekend heads toward the Upper Mississippi Valley for early next week. Southerly flow ahead of a couples of embedded shortwave troughs should bring sporadic thunderstorm activity to the forecast area through possible Tuesday afternoon. Warmer temperatures also return with highs in the 80s. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Several rivers fell below flood stage over the last 12 to 24 hours, but most of this water is still on route to the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River is expected to keep rising through the next 5 to 7 days depending on location and which rivers route into that particular location. Minor to moderate flood stages are expected from Lake City through Guttenberg. While official forecasts from the River Forecast Center do take into consideration all of the water that has already fallen and is on its way into the Mississippi River, it only takes the next 24-48 hours of forecast precipitation. Since the next chance of precipitation for the local area is not until Friday, this will not be accounted for in the official forecasts. At this time, rainfall expected for Friday (0.10-0.70") does not appear that it would substantially affect the Mississippi River forecast. The forecast rain on Friday will likely keep the river elevated beyond the next 7 to 10 days and the river may initially fall some before beginning to rise again as the additional rainfall flows downstream this weekend into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valley fog for Thursday morning will be the main TAF consideration for the forecast period as building high pressure overnight will allow for clearing skies and calmer winds. Currently with the 26.15z RAP showing fairly light winds in the lowest 3kft, confidence is increasing for valley fog. The one caveat that will needed to be monitored will be some drier air trying to advect in and if this may impact dewpoint depressions. Due to guidance suggesting relatively calm winds, could end up being patchy in nature when also considering the time of year. Consequently, held with a sct003 and BCFG group for now but will continue to monitor observations. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with building lower-VFR clouds later into the morning and afternoon ahead of an incoming weather system Thursday. Winds will begin the TAF period from the N/NW at 10-15 kts before becoming light at around 5 kts tonight and through the remainder of the TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...Naylor HYDROLOGY...JW/Zapotocny
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-271200- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Flooding continues along some area rivers. Please see the latest flood statements for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Flooding will continue along some area rivers. Please see the latest flood statements for additional details. Storm chances increase for Friday and again next Monday into Tuesday. It is too early to discern any potential severe weather risk at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Significant rainfall throughout June pushed the Mississippi River at Lynxville into flood stage on June 27th. By the end of June, the river stage remained in minor flood stage and was still increasing.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1194664.